Bowling for Dollars

Inspired by a comment dropped by SM in the most recent BCS Breakdown post, I thought I'd take a look at all the BCS bowl possibilities for the Mighty Card, no matter how remote.

I've made up some percentages to help you think about how likely each scenario is, and in order to make the math a bit easier, I'm assuming that Stanford has a 100% chance of beating Cal and Notre Dame over the last two weeks. This is obviously crazy, but the whole premise of this article is crazy, so just play along.

BCS Championship
To be honest, I'm not sure if this is even mathmetically possible at this point, but let's see what would have to happen.

• Stanford wins out, finishing at 11-1
• LSU wins out, defeating #6 Arkansas in the process.
• Oklahoma State loses twice, to Iowa State and Oklahoma.
• Alabama loses to Auburn.
• Oregon loses to USC.
• Oklahoma loses at #24 Baylor, rebounds to beat OSU.
• Arkansas loses to LSU.
• Clemson loses at #12 South Carolina.
• Virginia Tech loses to Clemson in ACC Championship game.

This scenario would leave LSU as the lone undefeated team and Stanford as the only one-loss team. It's certainly not impossible, but it's also not impossible for a coin to land on heads fifty times in a row.

Likelihood: 1%

Rose Bowl
There are actually two ways this can happen, and both hinge on the Oregon Ducks.

Option 1: The Oregon Flameout

• Oregon loses home games against USC and Oregon State.
• Stanford beats Cal. 

Stanford would finish conference play at 8-1, and Oregon would be 7-2.

Likelihood: 5%

Option 2: Oregon to BCS Championship

• Oregon wins out.
• Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma.
• Voters push 12-1 Oregon past 11-1 Alabama. 

It should be noted that if the Rose Bowl were to lose Oregon to the BCS Championship game, they would not be obligated to choose Stanford. Oklahoma would be available (and more highly ranked), but I'm guessing they'd select Stanford to preserve the traditional B1G Ten - Pac-12 matchup.

Likelihood: 14%

Fiesta Bowl

• Stanford wins out.
• That's all. 

Likelihood: 80%

 

 

Comments

[Todd]

"That's all"? No comment on a 10-2 Nebraska or Michigan being selected? I'm not saying they would be, but I don't think the possibility can be completely ignored. One factor might be how Luck is looking for the Heisman when it comes to be selection time; not that him not winning would make it impossible, but him winning definitely would help things.

[Yvonne]

but don't forget...

Stanford loses to Cal

No BCS, Alamo or Holiday Bowl

Probability?

Stanford loses to ND

No BCS, Alamo Bowl

[Mike G]

I agree with Todd that you can't assume that the entire range of Bowl options for Stanford (assuming they win out) is BCS CG, Rose, and Fiesta. I'm sure there are permutations that could put us in Sugar as well. But beyond that, it is definitely in the realm of possibility that a 2 loss Big10 team is chosen for Fiesta.

Oh, and in the first scenario, don't you think Houston needs to lose as well? You don't think an undefeated Houston gets any consideration?

[Hank]

If Houston finishes unbeaten they'll likely be ranked highly enough to get a BCS bid, but I don't think that would bounce the Cardinal. I think Virginia Tech would lose out. There's no way that a two-loss ACC team will be taken above an 11-1 Andrew-Luck-led Stanford team.

And yes, I'm ignoring two-loss Big Ten teams. I don't think they'll figure in the equation.

[Literacy]

Yvonne, don't forget to read the second paragraph of the post before commeting.

[Literacy]

*commenting.