Last November the eighth-ranked Oregon Ducks were the best team in the Pac-10 when they came to Stanford Stadium fresh off an emotional win over USC, but they were dominated by the Cardinal all afternoon. Toby Gerhart kicked his Heisman campaign into high gear as the carried the ball an astonishing 38 times and racked up 223 yards and three touchdowns. Andrew Luck completed only twelve passes, but those twelve completions went for 251 yards and two touchdowns as he repeatedly took advantage of an Oregon defense that was desperately cheating up to stop Gerhart. The final result was a 51-42 victory that still resonates as these two teams take the field tonight in Eugene, Oregon.
Toby Gerhart might be gone, but the Stanford Cardinal are still better than the Oregon Ducks. I spent all summer telling everyone I knew that even though the offense had lost the best running back in the country, it would actually be better in 2010 than 2009. I wasn't concerned as much about what was lost as what wasn't. Andrew Luck, of course, would be back, as would almost all of his top receivers and tight ends. Sure, there was no clear standout running back, but whoever carried the ball would be doing so behind a dominant offensive line that would return almost completely intact. I didn't think there would be a drop-0ff, and so far the statistics support that opinion.
Through the first four games of 2009, the Cardinal averaged 233.8 yards per game with eight touchdowns on the ground and 185.8 per game and only four touchdowns through the air. In 2010 the rushing totals have remained similar (223.3 and eleven), but the passing numbers have skyrocketed (234.3 and eleven).
Led by sophomore Stepfan Taylor, the running back corps is certainly making up for the loss of Gerhart, but the big story has been Andrew Luck. As expected, the second-year quarterback has improved tremendously and separated himself from the rest of the quarterbacks in the talent-rich Pac-10. But if you've been watching the games, you know that Luck hasn't yet been as good as he should be. He put up ridiculous numbers in the opener against Sacramento State, struggled mightily against UCLA, rebounded against a weak Wake Forest team, but played only moderately well at Notre Dame.
I'm betting that Luck plays brilliantly tonight, just as he did in last year's Oregon game. Even though much has been made of the nighttime chaos of Autzen Stadium, I don't think the Oregon fans will have the heart to keep the volume up as the Cardinal offense slowly and methodically pounds the Oregon defense into submission. The offensive line will impose its will on Oregon's undersized front seven, and after a while it won't matter if Toby Gerhart or Stepfan Taylor or Lady Gaga is carrying the ball. When the opportunities present themselves, Luck will exploit weaknesses downfield and probably run for around fifty yards by himself.
Sure, the Oregon offense is downright scary, and they'll certainly get their points, but I believe that the Stanford defense matches up well enough. I have to believe that they'll be committing everything they have to stopping running back LaMichael James, daring quarterback Darron Thomas to step up in the first big game of his life. Thomas might play well, but he won't play as well as Luck.
The pick here is Stanford, 37-28.
[Photo Credit: Associated Press]
