As the Cardinal heads into the home stretch of its season with a 2-1 record in Pac-10 play, Cardinal nation turns its lonely eyes towards Pasadena. Can Stanford possibly earn an invitation to Pasadena on New Year's Day? It's possible. There are two ways it can happen, and both involve the Cardinal winning its final six games. That's certainly not a gimme, so keep that in mind before you book passage to Los Angeles.
Scenario #1
Oregon loses twice in their final six games, finishes with a conference record of 7-2, and Stanford wins the Pac-10 at 8-1. Now, the last time we saw Oregon they were running up and down the field and piling up points on their way to a 52-31 win over the Cardinal. They're currently ranked second in the BCS standings, and it certainly wouldn't be a surprise if they ran the table and ended up in the national championship game, so how might they end up in second place behind Stanford? The Ducks have two marginally serious tests left on their schedule, and both are on the road. On October 30 they travel to USC to take on a Trojan team is desperate for a statement win. Their season closes with a December 4 trip to Corvallis for the Civil War against Oregon State. Not only is this a rivalry game, but Oregon State is a solid team that could upset the Ducks. If Oregon loses both of these games, the door will open for the Cardinal.
This one is much more complicated, so pay attention. I spent a fair amount of time this evening curled up with a document called the BCS Selection Procedures, and here's what I understand to be true. First, Oregon will have to finish either #1 or #2 in the BCS standings, earning a berth in the national championship game. This would open up a slot in the Rose Bowl that Stanford could conceivably fill if they finish in second place in the conference. In years past, it would've been automatic, because the Rose Bowl has always preferred to have a Pac-10 vs. Big Ten matchup, but the rules have changed this year.
Written into the BCS rules is a provision stating that if a team from a non-automatic qualifying conference is ranked in the top twelve of the BCS standings -- this will be Boise State -- and the Rose Bowl loses the champion from either the Pac-10 or the Big Ten (Oregon), the Rose Bowl must fill its vacancy with the non-AQ team (Boise State). In simple terms, Boise State must replace Oregon.
But here's how it can work out for the Mighty Card. If Boise State somehow sneaks into the top two of the BCS standings and is paired against Oregon in the national championship game, the Rose Bowl will be free to choose another at-large team to replace Oregon -- and they would likely choose the Stanford Cardinal. If Oklahoma, the current top-ranked team, loses somewhere along the way, Pasadena could be a possibility for Stanford. The Sooners still have road games against #11 Missouri and #14 Oklahoma State, as well as the Big-12 championship game.
Other things can -- and probably will -- happen over the next six weeks to muddy this picture, but that's where things stand now. Be sure to check back each week for bowl updates.
