One of the hidden benefits of watching your team in a bowl game is that you get to see them match up against a team that doesn't normally appear on your schedule and typically comes from a conference far, far away. (Fans of most schools are used to this, but all this postseason play and college football dominance is still quite new to Cardinal fans.)
Stanford heads to next week's Fiesta Bowl to take on the #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys, a team believed by many -- including me -- to be more deserving of a spot in the national championship game than the Alabama Cumbersome Tide.
If we think back to Stanford's BCS appearance last January in the Orange Bowl, even though most prognosticators expected Virginia Tech to handle the Cardinal, Stanford's complete dismantling of the Hokies was somehow spun by some as an indictment of the vaunted Hokie defense rather than confirmation of a dominant Stanford squad. Next week's Fiesta Bowl, then, brings with it golden opportunity. If Stanford can defeat Oklahoma State, they will have won two consecutive BCS bowl games, something no other team will be able to say, and they might even earn the #2 ranking if LSU hands Alabama its second loss (and voters penalize the Tide for it this time). This, I think, would finally validate the Stanford Cardinal in the eyes of college football fans across the nation. And that would be a good thing.
The one glaring problem with this scenario, of course, is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are much better than Virginia Tech, especially on the offensive side of the ball. A quick look at the numbers are enough to give you the shakes. I'd recommend sitting down before reading this chart.
|
Category |
Average |
NCAA Rank |
|
Total Offense |
532.1 |
3 |
|
Passing Yards |
386.2 |
2 |
|
Yards/Play |
7.1 |
3 |
|
Scoring |
49.3 |
2 |
|
1st Q. Scoring |
14.2 |
1 |
The Cowboys are clearly an offensive machine, and the engine that drives them is twenty-eight-year-old quarterback Brandon Weeden. Cardinal fans are used to watching the cold-blooded efficiency and genius-level game management of Andrew Luck, but Weeden is a different type of quarterback. Taking advantage of Oklahoma State's spread offense, Weeden throws the ball an average of 43.5 times per game, fourth most in the nation (Luck: 31.08, 46th), and racked up 4,328 passing yards, which is third best (Luck: 3,185; 24th).
Weeden's favorite target -- and who could blame him -- is the NFL-bound Justin Blackmon. Blackmon caught 113 passes this year for 1,336 yards and 15 touchdowns, stats which rank 3rd, 8th, and 4th in the nation. The Stanford defense saw several great receivers in the Pac-12 this season (Robert Woods and Marqise Lee of USC, Arizona's Juron Criner, Washington State's Marquess Wilson, and Cal's Keenan Allen), but Blackmon is better than all those guys. Can he be stopped? Of course not. But the Stanford defense will have to contain him if the Cardinal is to have a chance.
If you're one of my two or three loyal readers, you know this is the point in the preview where I admit that I don't really know what I'm talking about. Aside from a few plays here and there, I haven't watched Oklahoma State play at all this year, so I should probably pass this on to an expert. I give you Kyle Porter, who runs the incredibly comprehensive Oklahoma State blog, Pistols Firing. Kyle was good enough to answer some of my questions about the Cowboys, and if you're interested you can click over and read my responses to his queries. Enjoy...
GoMightyCard:
For ten weeks the Cowboys held their national championship destiny in their own hands before the stunning loss to Iowa State. How did the fan base react to that loss at the time, and how are people feeling now? Is there excitement about the Fiesta Bowl, or depression over what might've been?
Pistols Firing:
The weeks between the Iowa State game and the OU game were more shock than anything. We had to rewind and grieve over the plane crash then pretend like we still cared about football and then get ready for OU. I think the real vitriol came after OSU drilled OU because when you were watching that you were kind of saying, "wow, this is a national championship team, they should be playing for the title" then obviously you get left out. There was a two or three week period where basically every comment on my blog or on Twitter was about how OSU should be playing in New Orleans but it's died down since then because, as OSU fans, it's pretty difficult to be upset about your first Big 12 crown and first BCS game especially against a solid team like Stanford.
GMC:
Andrew Luck has been phenomenal for three years, and any Stanford fan will tell you that he's been critically important to the program's turnaround, but Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden has done the same for his program, and he topped Luck's passing yardage total by more than a thousand yards this year. What has he meant to Oklahoma State, and what are his strengths as a quarterback?
PF:
His strengths are basically everything but running. For somebody with such a phenomenal arm (and I think he has a top 5 arm in the nation) he does a great job with his touch on RB swing passes and quick outs to wide receivers. He handles the game very well and makes at least 2-3 throws a game that you find yourself gasping out loud at. I think if OSU fans were to be critical of one thing it's that he takes a lot of chances with his throws because his arm is so good. But that hasn't lost OSU a game yet and it's won them plenty so we're kind of just picking nits here.
GMC:
Stanford wide receivers totaled 113 receptions for 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns this year. In the last two seasons, Justin Blackmon's numbers are simply preposterous: 224 catches, 3,118 yards, 35 touchdowns. Is he really this good? Is there any way to stop him?
PF:
He really is that good. He's only gone under 100 yards in two of his last 25 games and while the first third of those can be chalked up to people not knowing anything about him, he's been double and triple covered for the rest of them. The reason he's so successful is because Weeden is very patient in finding him. He doesn't force passes to him but you'll look up after a few runs and screen passes and BOOM there's Blackmon going 35 yards up the seam for a touchdown. I think one way to stop him is to force him to the middle of the field and have a safety waiting there for him. That's the one place on the field he's been a little shaky and you could probably rough him up a little with a big hit or two early.
GMC:
Even with the big numbers that Weeden and Blackmon put up, OSU still manages to the run the ball as well with sophomore tailback Joseph Randle (198 for 1,193 and 23 TDs). What are Randle's strengths as a runner?
PF:
He's unbelievable when he gets to the second level (and with this offensive line he gets to the second level a lot). He's also a really great pass catcher out of the backfield on swing passes as well as wheel routes. In terms of versatility he might be the best all-around running back OSU has had since, wait for it, Thurman Thomas. He's done a great job all year of breaking tackles but also knowing when to go down and how to take a hit as to prolong his productivity. He's a bear to deal with and not even close to the strongest running back the Cowboys have (more on that later).
GMC:
There's a perception out there -- right or wrong -- that teams in the Big 12 don't play defense. While the Cowboys scored almost fifty points a game, there defense gave up 25.8, good for 61st best in the nation. How will they attack the Stanford offense? Who are the stars on the defensive side of the ball?
PF:
The perception is right and wrong. Right because, well, it's hard to argue with the numbers, no? Wrong because, think about this, OSU's defense was on the field for 1,008 plays this year. Compare that to 676 by Alabama's defense. Some of that is because OSU doesn't get as many 3 and outs as the Tide but a lot of it is because OSU's offense scores and scores and scores and does so in a hurry. Also, OSU has just torched some lesser Big 12 opponents which leads to 2nd and 3rd team guys playing which leads to garbage time points. The Cowboys had Baylor in a 49-3 stranglehold when they emptied their bench but the final looked a lot more...uh...respectable for the Bears at 59-24. OSU's defensive MVP this season was defensive end Jamie Blatnick but that might have just been because he was juxtaposed with how poor this defensive line has been historically, although he was terrific all year. Another guy to watch out for is Brodrick Brown, who is OSU's best cornerback.
GMC:
The Stanford offense is built around the offensive line, and the game plan usually involves wearing teams down in the first half and dominating in the second. How might the Oklahoma State front seven respond to this?
PF:
I segued nicely into this question without even knowing it! The defensive line of OSU is going to be a little weak to begin with as Christian Littlehead, somebody who has been very consistent for the Cowboys all year, has been suspended for the game. I think this is going to be a real issue. OSU's starters on the line have been really strong all season but they aren't particularly deep at this position. Look at the Kansas State game, they got abused in the second half by a line and a running game that, in my opinion, doesn't compare to the strength of Stanford's.
GMC:
In order to truly understand the greatness of Oklahoma State, what else do we need to know?
PF:
Two guys: running back Jeremy Smith and cornerback/kick returner Justin Gilbert. Smith spells Randle for plays at a time and is a bruising, threatening beast of a guy who is not fun to tackle at any time, much less in the 4th quarter of a hard-fought game. He's been a problem all year for opponents (7.2 yards per carry) and provides OSU with possibly the best 1-2 punch at RB in the Big 12. Gilbert is an electrifying return man who doubles as my favorite player. He's been above average at corner but is a threat to take every kick he touches to the house. And he loves doing so in big games. Definitely somebody to keep an eye on.
GMC:
Finally, a prediction. How do you see this game going, and what's your final score?
PF:
I'll say OSU 48-38. I think it'll play out a lot like the Oregon game with OSU having too much firepower on offense for the Trees to hang. I do think Luck will play better against OSU than he did Oregon though which is why I think it'll be close most of the way with the Cowboys maybe getting a turnover late and pulling away at the end.
