I believe that the Mighty Card will beat USC this weekend. After navigating what amounts to the preseason portion of the schedule, Coach David Shaw has given his new quarterback confidence and an increasing amount of responsibility within the offense, the offensive line has coalesced, and the defense has regained its leader.
Stanford has beaten USC three years in a row and four of the past five, and that trend should continue. Even though the Trojans have a clear advantage at the offensive skill positions and overall team speed, there's a sense that Stanford simply matches up well against USC. Coach Shaw's NFL experience prepared him well to design a game plan and call plays against USC's Tampa 2 defense, a scheme that was all the rage during Shaw's various stints with Philadelphia, Oakland, and Baltimore, and the defense has always performed well enough against Matt Barkley and company to secure the win. (Oregon, on the other hand, a team similar to USC in many respects, is a decidedly bad matchup for the Cardinal. Coach Shaw still hasn't figured out how to compete with them, but we've got a couple months before we have to worry about that.)
The problem with this analysis, of course, is that it's far from unbiased. If you were to travel across the country and ask a thousand randomly selected college football fans with no connection to Stanford University about this Saturday's game between the Cardinal and the Trojans, I'm guessing that about 995 of them would pick USC to win.
But I am connected to Stanford University, and the people I talk to about football either lived in my freshman dorm or populate a message board focused on Stanford sports. There's a possibility that I lack the proper perspective to offer an accurate preview of this game. In an effort to provide a more balanced opinion, I sought out someone with a strong bias in the other direction. Enter Will Robinson of the USC blog, Conquest Chronicles, who was kind enough to answer some of my questions. It's a great read, even if he did dodge a couple of my more insightful questions. Enjoy...
GoMightyCard:
Given the recent history in this series, going back the Biggest Upset Ever in '07, the "What's Your Deal?" thrashing in '09, and the last-minute thrillers the last two years, I'm wondering how USC fans view the Stanford game. I know that your national championship aspirations make every game a must-win, but does Stanford raise the interest level any? Do Trojan fans see this as a rivalry?
Conquest Chronicles:
It definitely piques the interest more than other games for Trojans fans, especially with how the past meetings have shook out. A good analogy is an older brother-younger brother dynamic. The older brother (USC) would generally beat up the younger one (Stanford). Then, when the young guy finally shoots up six inches and gains 50 pounds of muscle (the Harbaugh era), things get more interesting. I think Trojan fans are more annoyed than anything, as the last win came when Pete Carroll and Mark Sanchez hung 45 in the second year of Harbaugh’s reign. The 2009 affair was a barn-burner; the past two have been close. If anything, the rivalry developed when Kiffin took over and had two close games. Another exciting one on Saturday, especially with a USC win, would legitimize the rivalry for Trojan fans.
GMC:
Matt Barkley is obviously a great quarterback, but for people who don't watch him every snap, what are the little things that we might not realize? Accuracy? Decision making? Leadership? What sets him apart from other guys with big numbers?
CC:
Well, Barkley definitely excels in all three of those categories you mentioned. But it’s his decision-making which stands not. Last year, he seldom threw interceptions or took sacks, obviously critical for successful quarterback play. His chemistry with Robert Woods and Marqise Lee allows him to make correct decisions and deliver accurate missiles down the field. It certainly helps having two All-American wideouts to throw to, but his movement in the pocket – I don’t want to say the best, as I haven’t seen enough of other top QBs – is excellent.
GMC:
I'm curious about Barkley's legacy. He should finish this season atop all the major USC passing lists, but does he also need a Heisman Trophy and a national championship for him to be viewed as the Greatest Trojan of All-Time? Also, I noticed that his hair is shorter than it's ever been. Is that because he's tired of being mistaken for Draco Malfoy?
CC:
Trojan fans want it all. But for him to be considered the greatest, the Heisman is not nearly as important as victory in Miami. Leading USC out of the sanctions and to a national championship would instantly deify Barkley. While he is well on his way after his decision, it’s Natty or Bust. Sure, a number of fans want to see No. 7 retired. But no one will forget Barkley’s contributions toward a title. As for his hair, the best thing to say is “no comment.” Last time someone at USC made a crack about Barkley’s blond locks, it trended on Twitter in L.A.
GMC:
As great as the USC offense has been over the past few years, it seems like they've missed the dominant running game that they enjoyed back in the Reggie Bush/Lendale White era. With Curtis McNeal and the arrival of Silas Redd, that's no longer a concern. How good is the USC rushing attack, and how do you expect them to perform against the Stanford front seven?
CC:
The tailbacks are very good, no question. Redd’s power is an ideal complement to McNeal’s shiftiness and quickness. As exhibited last week against Syracuse, they can be very effective. But against Hawaii, the running game had trouble getting off the ground. Surprisingly, the offensive line, which returned four of five starters (albeit excluding No. 3 pick in the draft Matt Kalil), has not played as well as it should. Plus, center Khaled Holmes, the senior-most member on the line, could miss the match due to a lower-leg injury. That could be problematic. They’re certainly better than Duke’s unit, which gained a paltry 27 yards on 23 carries. But the play action off Barkley’s success through the air will be essential to run against Stanford’s daunting front seven.
GMC:
Robert Woods and Marqise Lee appear to be from another world. What makes them so great as a tandem, and what, if anything, can defenses do to slow them down?
CC:
First of all, thank you for spelling Marqise Lee correctly. They really are perfect complements, as the best receiver tandem in the country. Woods is a very agile player with great separation speed who can run precise routes and leave people behind. Lee is faster and stronger than Woods. Just look how he torched Hawaii all day. It’s fair to say that Lee as a sophomore is better than Woods’ as one. Generally, he still needs to improve routes and consistency catching.
In terms of stopping them, no secondary can contain two deadly outside threats without giving up plays underneath. It comes down to Barkley. Applying pressure to Barkley without blitzing will be difficult, yeah. But rushing five or six? That leaves Woods and Lee in single coverage. No team wants that. Too risky. In order to shut down the Trojan aerial assault, knock Barkley on his ass.
GMC:
Stanford's linebackers are often mentioned as being among the best units in the nation, but USC's group is also pretty special. Talk a bit about them, and tell me how you think the defense will attack Josh Nunes and the Stanford offense.
CC:
They are quite special. Dion Bailey, Hayes Pullard and Lamar Dawson all started as freshmen last season. Bailey and Pullard led the team in tackles, and Dawson was given the holy No. 55 as a freshman. The best of the three is Pullard. This may be a personal bias – I love watching him run all around – but he’s just so relentless in his play that it’s contagious. You can’t help but love it. Bailey is a speedster, as he’s a converted defensive back, who can stop the run. Dawson is still developing and getting healthy. He’ll look to step up to a bigger role, on the field and off it, as the Mike in his second year.
The defense has been peculiar two games in. The supposed weakest part, the defensive line, has been great, starring JUCO transfer Morgan Breslin. Conversely, the secondary has had trouble with finding a No. 2 corner to star opposite Nickell Robey. The Trojan defense should definitely be wary of the Cardinal running game. Nunes will have to vary which receivers he targets and spread the ball around and stay away from Robey’s side of the field when possible. Breslin, George Uko and the other linemen will have to break through, hit Nunes and make him feel scared in the pocket.
GMC:
So what's your prediction? How do you expect the game to play out?
CC:
This week will be a big Lee game. Just a gut call. Hawaii tried to limit Woods in Week 1, and it did, but that allowed Lee to wreak havoc. Last week, Woods was heavily featured. That may be the weekly trend throughout the season. Nunes will make a few plays, but not enough to catch up with the Trojan offense. I’ll go 36-24, USC.
GMC:
Finally, in your heart of hearts, don't you secretly wish that you could trade Traveler for the Tree?
CC:
A rare known fact about Trojan mythology: Soldiers did not exclusively use swords in Troy. They fancied the occasional axe. I’ll leave it at that.
GMC:
Interesting. We like Axes, too.
