In 1992 the SEC came up with the idea to split into two divisions and hold a championship game pitting the division winners, and the college football landscape changed forever. There was money to be made with that extra game, so the Big 12 followed suit four years later, and the ACC instituted their championship game in 2005.
Along with the influx of cash, the championship gives the conference a marquee spot on the national stage, an advantage which surely helped propel Alabama's Mark Ingram to the Heisman when he was playing in the SEC championship as Stanford's Toby Gerhart sat at home in 2009.
So when the Pac-10 expanded to the Pac-12 and split into two divisions, it was a perfect opportunity for the conference to join the 21st century and create its own championship game. While critics might complain that it's simply a money grab, this year's game between Stanford and Arizona State proves that games like this are necessary.
Stanford and Arizona State are clearly the two best teams in the conference this year, but even though Stanford has a better résumé, enjoys a higher BCS ranking, and holds a dominant victory over Arizona State, were it not for this championship game the Sun Devils would have already clinched a Rose Bowl appearance by virtue of their 8-1 conference record. Saturday's game, then, pits the best overall team (Stanford) against the hottest team (Arizona State). The winner will surely deserve the Rose Bowl reward.
When last we saw the Sun Devils they were playing the part of the piñata at a five-year-old's birthday party. After watching the Cardinal's 42-28 thrashing of Arizona State back in September, no one, not even the loyalest fan, would have predicted that the Devils would end up playing for the Pac-12 championship, but here they are. ASU rebounded the following week with a 62-41 shoot-out win over USC, then dropped a close one to Notre Dame, 37-34, but they've rattled off seven straight wins since then, averaging 44 points in the process. (They rank 8th nationally in scoring at 43.3 points per game, and they've topped fifty points six times this season -- and they didn't even play Cal.)
Just like every game for Stanford this season, Saturday's game will likely hinge on the Stanford running game. I expect that we'll see Stanford's offense continue on the trend we've seen recently, which means lots of Tyler Gaffney. During the first six games of the season, as Gaffney was reacclimating himself to football, he averaged only 18 carries and 95 yards per game while rushing for a total of seven touchdowns. In the second six, however, those numbers jumped to 29.3 carries for 152.5 yards per game and ten scores. He should get at least 35 carries, possibly 40, and based on what we've been seeing over the past month and a half, I'll be surprised if he doesn't rush for more than 150 yards.
Also, I suspect that we'll see some new wrinkles to the Stanford offense. Last week's game against Notre Dame was a nice win, but with the Cardinal eliminated from national championship contention, the game didn't really matter too much in the grand scheme of the season. As a result, the coaching staff could afford to hold some things back. I have a feeling we'll see something exotic on Saturday night -- possibly a pass from someone other than Hogan, maybe Gaffney or Ty Montgomery. Wouldn't that be fun?
When it's all done, I think Stanford wins, and think the margin might a bit wider than most expect. Let's say 27-17, Stanford, with Tyler Gaffney as the game's MVP.
But I'm guessing you didn't click on this link to find out my thoughts, you wanted to hear from the other side. Just like last time, I reached out to the writers at House of Sparky, and several of them were generous enough answer a handful of questions for me. (You can also check out my thoughts about Stanford in a three-part round table discussion they're hosting over on their site, here and here.) So without further ado...
Go Mighty Card:
It's been almost twenty years since Arizona State last played in the Rose Bowl. How excited is the fan base, and what can we expect the atmosphere to be like on game day? What would it mean for the program to win on Saturday and advance to Pasadena on January 1st?
Nick Krueger:
The students were rioting after the game to be the first in line to get tickets to the Pac-12 Championship game after the win over Arizona last week. Kids have been camped out for wristbands just to gain entry into the stadium since Monday, and that line is only growing. I think “excited” would be an understatement. I’m anticipating a loud, sold out crowd despite subtle changes made by the Pac-12 to make it more neutral. It would mean the world to these fans to be able to go to Pasadena; everyone around here thinks the Sun Devils have a legitimate shot at winning this game no doubt.
Kerry Crowley:
It’s hard to imagine a time where the Sun Devil fan base has been more inspired in the past 10 to 15 years. Todd Graham has said throughout the season that his players don’t just believe they can win, they expect to win. That attitude has translated to the fan base, and especially the student body. Student ticket sales have broken all sorts of records this season and the student presence will be strong on Saturday night. This fan base is educated and knows that Stanford doesn’t play as well on the road, and it fully expects to have an impact on the outcome of the game. Short of a national title, there’s nothing more thrilling than the Rose Bowl for the Sun Devil program.
Ryan Bafaloukos:
Just to echo the thoughts of the two men above me, I have not seen anything like this before in my time covering Arizona State or attending their games when I was younger. Each time I venture to the stadium, ticket sales lines are full and the student contingent camped out continues to grow. There is a general buzz around campus and in the valley about this game; expect a sellout and expect it to be loud Saturday night. A trip to the Rose Bowl would mean everything to this program. Since he stepped onto campus, Todd Graham has always spoken about winning championships. Even this year, when he said the goal is the Rose Bowl people laughed and figured the goal was to win the South and get to this game. Graham has changed the culture in Tempe in less than two years and all his efforts will be validated with a win on Saturday.
GMC:
When Stanford fans last saw Arizona State on September 21st, they weren't very impressive, but they've obviously gotten better since. How are today's Sun Devils different from the ones that were so badly beaten eleven weeks ago?
Nick Krueger:
This run defense has stepped up big time. They’ve proven to fans that they can win close games down the stretch simply on defense (see Utah and UCLA games). This team held Washington and Bishop Sankey to 22 yards on the ground with 13 carries. This is also just overall a more confident team with big wins over UCLA, Utah, and USC.
Kerry Crowley:
The Sun Devils have three different starters on the defensive side of the ball that have made a world of difference. Arizona State didn’t have a true defensive tackle playing against Stanford because Jaxon Hood was injured early on. Today, they have All-Pac-12 honorable mention Davon Coleman filling the void and doing so at an extremely high level. Redshirt freshman Salamo Fiso has been a difference maker as a run-stopper at linebacker, and Damarious Randall is the missing link that has helped this secondary click in the second half of the season. The defense is playing at an entirely different level now, and the unit exudes confidence against highly touted opponents.
Ryan Bafaloukos:
Kerry took a lot of what I was going to say. The difference for Arizona State has been those new pieces on defense. Demarious Randall has been a difference maker in the secondary. He, along with the improved play of Robert Nelson, give Arizona State perhaps the best secondary in the conference. The other main difference has been the improved special teams play. Zane Gonzales has made 18 straight field goals and Alex Garoutte has locked down the rugby style punt that keeps improving every week. Graham has said all season that special teams is key and the Sun Devils have dramatically improved in that area throughout the season.
GMC:
The Cardinal needs to run the ball to be successful, and that was a key to the victory in the first match up, as Stanford totaled 240 yards on the ground. ASU's defense seems to have improved, but they've given up 400 total rushing yards over the past two weeks to UCLA and Arizona. Are there concerns about how they'll handle the Stanford running game?
Nick Krueger:
The mobility of Kevin Hogan was the real issue for the Sun Devils against the Cardinal back in September. Yes, Gaffney got his carries but ASU had Stanford in third down situations or backed into a corner a couple of times and ASU faultered. It’s going to be really important for the Sun Devils not to pass Hogan while rushing the quarterback and keep contain forcing him to throw accurate passes against a solid secondary rather than escaping the pocket and making a play with his feet.
Kerry Crowley:
Any time a team faces Stanford, there’s always concerns about how that team will handle the ground game. Even the best rushing defenses will surrender yards against the Cardinal, it’s just a matter of managing how many yards the Sun Devils give up. The key this week is to minimize big plays and move the line of scrimmage back on third down. Stanford was able to break through the middle of Arizona State’s defense the last time these teams faced, and that shouldn’t be the case this week. Arizona State also has to focus on cutback lanes and reverses, because this defense is prone to over-pursuit. Stopping the ground game is easier said than done, but this version of the Sun Devils is much better prepared.
Ryan Bafaloukos:
The biggest down for Arizona State is first. Todd Graham has stated his team needs to force Stanford into third and long situations and make Kevin Hogan beat them. They cannot do this if Tyler Gaffney gets four or five yards on first down. The concern that Arizona State has with Stanford is how big and physical the offensive front is for the Cardinal. Arizona State is a fast, attacking defense, however there is no doubt they are undersized. Can Arizona State match up when Stanford stacks the line and runs iso? That will be the question.
GMC:
It's hard to measure a defensive tackle's impact with statistics, which might explain why Will Sutton was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year with only three sacks, a huge drop off from last season. Stanford fans would argue that Trent Murphy was more deserving of the award. Make your case for Sutton.
Nick Krueger:
Do I have to? I think most knowledgeable folks at ASU realize that their were better choices out there this season. Sutton had a ton of momentum from last season that somehow carried over. If I have to make the case for Sutton I think it comes down to the fact that Sutton is the spiritual and moral leader of this defense. I also think he plays in his character very well with the “eatin” dance after sacks and long dreads. It’s easy to recognize Sutton on the field. It may have come down to Sutton’s likeability and that he’s easy to recognize as to why he won the award for the second straight year. It’s also named the “Pat Tillman defensive player of the year award” so I think it benefits the Pac-12 from a public relations standpoint to give it to a player from ASU who stands out on defense as much as Sutton does.
Kerry Crowley:
I had a vote for All-Americans on the Football Writers Association of America ballot and Will Sutton’s name was not on my list. Trent Murphy’s name was at the top of my list and I think he’s the best linebacker in the country. The reason I think the Pac-12 honored Sutton with the award is because of his character and leadership (not to say that Murphy doesn’t exemplify both qualities too). The Sun Devils are a great story this season while the Cardinal probably had the talent to compete for a national championship. Sutton was able to guide his team to the Pac-12 South title and he’s an extension of the coaching staff on the field. No Sun Devil plays with more heart and passion than Sutton, and he’s a true student of the game. If the award winner is supposed to embody the characteristics of Pat Tillman, then I think it’s easy to see why Sutton brought it home. If it’s simply about outstanding play, I think it’s much harder to put Sutton ahead of Trent Murphy.
Ryan Bafaloukos:
Personally, I think that Anthony Barr or Trent Murphy should have received the award. The fact is, every single great defensive player gets double teamed and game planned for. This includes Barr and Murphy, who both put up significantly better numbers than Sutton. However, Will Sutton makes other defenders around him so much better. There is a reason why Devon Coleman and Gannon Conway both had career years. Sutton frees up other players on the defense like no other player in the conference and that is my best argument for Sutton.
GMC:
Tell me about Taylor Kelly's season. Even though his numbers have dipped over the second half of the season, it looks like that might only because the offense has been more balanced. How would you grade his performance this year, and what do you think the Sun Devils need from him on Saturday to get the win?
Kerry Crowley:
Taylor Kelly was the second best quarterback in the Pac-12 this season behind Marcus Mariota. Kelly began his career as a game-manager, but he’s morphed into a reliable play-maker the Sun Devils can count on when they need a lift. Kelly has engineered an offense that averages more than 40 points per game and he’s done so with immense pressure on his shoulders. The Sun Devils don’t just count on Kelly to throw the ball, they need him to be a leader in the run game. Kelly’s split second decisions in the zone-read game are essential to Arizona State’s success on the ground, and that’s what may not show up in the stat book. This week, the task becomes infinitely tougher because he’ll be reading Trent Murphy, Shayne Skov and Josh Mauro, but if he performs above average, that neutralizes some pretty menacing forces on Stanford’s defense.
Ben Haber:
I think Taylor Kelly deserves an A-minus for his performances to date. The Sun Devils score 43.3 points per game, eighth best in the nation. Kelly should garner the majority of the credit. Offensive coordinator Mike Norvell recently said Kelly is eerily similar to a coach on the field. Compared to last year, Kelly got much stronger because of his rigorous workouts. The deep ball used to be the achilles heel for Kelly, yet he improved in that area in 2013. Kelly beats defenses in so many ways, featuring underrated speed and consistent accuracy/efficiency.
Cody Um: What the Sun Devils are going to need for Kelly on Saturday is for him to work his magic on the ground. In the Sun Devils only two losses of the season, Kelly had -4 rushing yards against Stanford and five against Notre Dame. In games in which Kelly has registered over 25 rushing yards this season, the Sun Devils have won by an average margin of 27.7 points per game. When Kelly is making the right calls in the read-option, Arizona State’s offense elevates to another level. I think it will be even more important to keep a physical Stanford team on its heels Saturday since ASU will be relying more on a finesse attack in the ground game with D.J. Foster taking over for Marion Grice (lower leg injury).
GMC:
Marion Grice will be out with an injury. How will this loss affect the Devils? What can you tell me about his replacement?
Nick Krueger:
D.J. Foster and Deantre Lewis are capable replacements as proven last week against Arizona. Foster is more of a dual-threat while Lewis and Grice run with similar styles. The real storyline might be De’Marieya Nelson, who really impressed a lot of people with his physical running style when he went in during some situational plays. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lining up even more either at the fullback spot or when ASU only needs a yard or two for a first down or a touchdown. Nelson could possibly be the x-factor in this game.
Ben Haber:
Marion Grice is one of the most under the radar running backs in the country. The Sun Devils really rely on him inside the red-zone, as Grice logged 20 touchdowns in 10 games. On the other hand, backup D.J. Foster would be the starter for most of the teams in college football. Foster also posseses fresh legs because he was rarely asked to run the rock in 2013. Against the University of Arizona, Foster logged 22 carries, 124 yards two touchdowns. With Grice on the sideline watching, Foster can easily hold down the fort.
Cody Ulm:
Although I’m a huge fan of Foster’s skillset, I’m not as confident as Ben in this particular matchup. Foster certainly isn’t the type of back to wear a defense down, even with his speed. He definitely packs a big-play punch, but for each 10 or 15 yard scamper, there’s usually a negligible gain of one or less yards to follow. As I’m sure your readers know, that’s just not the way you beat Stanford’s defense. Arizona State needs to be gaining positive yards on every play to get into favorable third down scenarios. And remembering how Stanford manhandled Grice and Arizona State’s offense line last time, I’m expecting some struggles Saturday.
GMC:
As you look back on the season, which player most surprised you? Was there a player who exceeded expectations and helped get the Sun Devils to this championship game?
Kerry Crowley:
I think the play of Davon Coleman and Gannon Conway took me by surprise the most out of any Sun Devils. Coleman was expected to be a rotational pass-rusher, but he’s become an integral presence in stopping the run at a position that he wasn’t used to playing entering the season. In many ways, I think Coleman could be the defensive MVP because of the versatility he’s shown and the fact that he’s able to succeed at a position that’s so vital to the Sun Devils’ success. As for Conway, I don’t think anyone had expectations for what he could accomplish because he had no proven track record. At this point in the season, he blends in and produces with Will Sutton and Carl Bradford on the defensive front and that’s all the coaching staff can ask of him.
Ben Haber:
I was really concerned about the Arizona State linebacker situation prior to opening day kickoff. Redshirt freshman Salamo Fiso emerged as the answer, which was quite surprising. Fiso posses great instincts despite his limited experience. I expected Fiso to factor into the future plans, but he continues to factor into the present plans. As time goes on, Fiso gets stronger, racking up 21 tackles in the last three games. With Carl Bradford, Will Sutton and Chris Young attracting the majority of attention from defenses, Fiso reaps the benefits.
Ryan Bafaloukos:
I am going to say Robert Nelson, who was recently named to the First Team All-Pac-12 team ahead of Osahon Irabor. Nelson has bounced around the secondary, playing some field safety and some nickel corner this year. But it has been hard to keep him off the field, especially in Arizona State’s last four games. Nelson had a crucial interception in the fourth quarter against Utah and returned one for a touchdown against Oregon State. Nelson has been a crucial part of the defense this year and I did not see it coming when the season began.
Cody Ulm:
I’m going to go with another Nelson, De’Marieya Nelson. Coming in, I heard all kinds of talk about his incredible athletic prowess and it certainly was on display throughout camp. But I just had no idea all the ways he would be able to impact a game. Last Saturday was the perfect microcosmal display of his versatile abilities. Nelson is a tight end by trade yet as a power back, he converted two one-yard rushing touchdowns. In the blocking department, he was a force as always and when he split out wide, he made an acrobatic, 21-yard back shoulder catch. To top it all off, he also forced and recovered a fumble on a special teams play in the third quarter to kill any momentum the Wildcats were forming in the third quarter. Nelson is that “fill-in-the-blanks” type player that could carve out a role on even the highest of championship caliber teams.
GMC:
Finally, let me know how you think the game will play out. Give me a final score, a general idea of how you expect the game to go, and your predicted player of the game for Arizona State.
Nick Krueger:
Despite a great year, and what will definitely be a home field advantage for the Sun Devils, I think they fall short by a touchdown 38-31. I actually think it will be a similar game to the last meeting with the roles reversed. ASU will come out guns blazing and take potentially a two touchdown lead into halftime before Stanford comes charging back. The Sun Devils certainly won’t be caught off-guard by what Stanford does this time around. Todd Graham learned his lesson and should have a better gameplan in place but ASU has shown vulnerability in the second half against UCLA and Arizona, and I think it finally comes back to bite them this week.
Kerry Crowley:
I’ll take the Cardinal to win this one 30-24 simply because of their front seven on the defensive side of the ball, AND their front seven on the offensive side of the ball. Everyone knows about the 3-4 Stanford scheme and how physical the Cardinal play, and that’s something that Arizona State’s offensive line has struggled with this season. If the Cardinal get off the ball fast and push the Sun Devil offense around, it’s going to be a tough night for Taylor Kelly. On defense, the Sun Devils can’t afford to miss tackles and they have to create a stalemate at the point of attack. Stanford doesn’t just use five offensive linemen, they use up to eight or nine guys and they typically send at least seven blockers ahead of the ball carrier in the running game. If those seven blockers can consistently create running lanes that force defensive backs to make tackles, then Stanford won’t have issues moving the ball, running the clock, and winning the game.
Ryan Bafaloukos:
Stanford just is not the same team on the road (as you can say for most teams). The Cardinal are 1-2 in their last three road games, averaging just 19.1 PPG. Stanford also ranks 109th in the nation in red zone efficiency on the road, compared to No. 1 at home. This Arizona State team feeds off the crowd, the atmosphere, and the emotion in the stadium, and that will be at an all time high Saturday. I expect Arizona State to jump out to a lead and for Stanford to tie it or take the lead into halftime. I think the Sun Devils and Cardinal go back and forth in the second half with Arizona State pulling it out 31-24.
Cody Ulm:
I have the same vision as Krueger. I see the Sun Devils jumping out to a quick lead but coming out flat in the third quarter like they have the past two games. With Foster unable to power through Stanford’s stout front seven late in the game, Arizona State’s offense will run dry and Stanford will creep back. I’m gonna say the Cardinal win a close one, 40-34.
