Cal is Stanford's traditional rival, and USC might be the opponent that boils the blood more than any team on the schedule, but since 2010 the Oregon game has been the first game I've looked for when the schedules were released each year.
After two nearly identical blowouts (52-31 in 2010 and 53-30 in '11) ruined perfect starts for the Cardinal, Stanford was finally able to turn things around, beating the Ducks 17-14 in 2012 and coming up with their most decisive win in the (recent) series last season, a 26-20 victory that wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate.
In each of the last four years the winner of the Stanford-Oregon game emerged as the conference champion, and although the Cardinal still face a tough stretch of games after this weekend, it's a good bet that Saturday's winner will again represent the Pac-12 North in the conference championship game, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see that team win the title -- again.
More than anything, though, Oregon serves as a clear barometer for the Stanford program. (The game is also circled on the Ducks' schedule, I'd imagine, but for different reasons.) The losses in 2010 and '11 weren't just blowouts, they were heart-wrenching defeats that exposed the Cardinal as Pac-12 pretenders, greatly outclassed by their rivals from the Pacific Northwest. In 2010 Stanford actually jumped out to a 21-3 lead, and I remember thinking for the first time in my life that a Stanford football team might actually be good enough to win a national championship. Here's what I wrote about Stepfan Taylor's touchdown that opened up that huge lead:
Taylor's trip from the line of scrimmage to the end zone couldn't have taken more than six or seven seconds, but time stood still for me. I jumped off the couch and immediately began screaming at the television screen, urging on a runner that I knew wouldn't be caught. As he angled his way across the hash marks and towards the left side of the end zone, my mind began to wander. In just seconds the score would be 21-3, and -- it appeared -- the route would be on. I wondered what it would look like to see a Stanford Cardinal football team in the top five of next week's poll. I looked ahead to USC and Arizona and Arizona State. I imagined the drama of an undefeated Stanford team going to Berkeley for Big Game. I even thought about the BCS Championship game on January 10th in Glendale, Arizona -- just half a day's drive from home. Not once during all of that did I remember that these last two scores had come courtesy of Oregon turnovers. Not once did I remember that there were still forty-six minutes left to play. Not once did I think that Oregon would come back.
But of course, they did come back, and two hours later I was wallowing in despair, wondering how the team (and I) could ever recover from the 49-10 run the Ducks had used to close out the game and send the Cardinal back to the end of the line.
The next year it was the same, but different. Entering the game at 8-0 and clearly one of the best teams in the country with the best quarterback in a generation at the helm, huge things were expected. This was supposed to be a changing of the guard in the Pac-12 and a Heisman coronation for Andrew Luck, but instead it was a disaster. A dejected Luck uttered those now famous words during his post game press conference, admitting that Stanford had "an Oregon problem." Indeed.
When Kevin Hogan -- a redshirt freshman making his first road start -- led the Cardinal to victory in Eugene the following year, it was stunning. When he and his team jumped out to a 23-0 lead the next year in Palo Alto and hung on for a 26-20 win, it was validation. Yes, Stanford could compete with the Ducks. Yes, Stanford was one of the elite programs in the nation. Shockingly, people began wondering aloud if perhaps the Ducks now had a Stanford problem.
We'll get an answer to that question on Saturday as Hogan looks for his third straight win over the Ducks, but from a Stanford perspective we'll learn something even more important. Were the improvements we saw from the Stanford offense last week against Oregon State simply a product of a poor defense, or is the Cardinal heading in the right direction? Is Stanford still one of the nation's elite programs, or have they fallen back to the pack?
A Stanford win over Oregon would erase much of the doubt that piled up over the season's first eight weeks, and it could propel the Cardinal to a third-straight conference championship. As good as the Ducks are, their offensive line is questionable and their defense is suspect. I believe the Cardinal will exploit both these advantages and come away with a narrow win, 20-17.
Not surprisingly, other people think differently. To give you a balanced perspective, I contacted what is probably the most comprehensive football blog in America, the Oregon site Fishduck.com, and writer Tyler Robinson was kind enough to answer a few questions about the Ducks. Read on...
Given what's happened the last two years, how do Oregon fans view Stanford and the Stanford game?
Honestly, I think Stanford strikes a bit of fear into everyone. Both years that Stanford beat Oregon the Ducks were scoring 55 points per game. For whatever reason Stanford shuts Oregon down. It's no secret that Oregon relies pretty heavily on their offense and when they can't get it going it's disheartening. I myself am a little nervous about the new look that Stanford's offense unveiled last week, as it was much more effective than what they'd been doing all season.
We have to start with Marcus Mariota. His numbers are insane, but having watched him every week for the past three years, what impresses you most about him? Also, is there ANY chance he sticks around for another year? (Please say no.)
Mariota is humble. We've seen so many other top college football stars in the past couple years (Johnny "Football" Manziel and "Famous" Jameis Winston) that have made headlines for the wrong reasons. Mariota is a breath of fresh air. He goes out and plays lights out every week, and he seems almost reluctant to take any of the credit. He's a great example of how student athletes should carry themselves. Will Mariota return next season? In a perfect world, it'd be an emphatic yes. Realistically, it'd be crazy on his part to come back to Oregon next year. Mariota's going to be a top five pick, perhaps the first pick overall.
What about Mark Helfrich? How does the fanbase view him? Has he made this team his own, or is he simply carrying on what Chip Kelly built?
The fanbase is beginning to embrace Helfrich. I think that there were some that were skeptical after the way last season ended. Oregon got smashed by Arizona and they missed out on a BCS Bowl game. People overreacted. The truth is that Helfrich is 18-3, which isn't too shabby. As far as Chip Kelly goes... Everyone in the Eugene area still loves Chip Kelly. Comcast has a show called "Talkin' Ducks," and they regularly do a segment on what Chip and the Eagles are doing. He's that beloved. Is Helfrich carrying on what Chip Kelly built? I mean, yeah. In a way he's certainly building on what Kelly built, but that shouldn't take away from what Helfrich is doing. Kelly wanted Helfrich to have this job, I think that's why he came back when Tampa Bay offered him the coaching job the first time around. Helfrich had enormous shoes to fill and he's done it with grace. Everyone was ecstatic when Helfrich got the job because we knew that there wouldn't be a tremendous change in the program. We also know that Helfrich will never leave us; this is his dream job.
Aside from Mariota, who should fans watch for on the Oregon offense? Also, what's the current state of the offensive line?
True freshman Royce Freeman, or "Rolls Royce" as he's called around here. The Oregon fanbase knew he was going to be a beast coming into the season, and he's really put his talents on display the last couple of weeks. At 6'0" 230 pounds he's a lot bigger than the stud running backs we've had the past couple of years (LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner). He brings an element to Oregon's offensive attack that we haven't had since LaGarrette Blount. He's an animal.... The offensive line is as healthy as it's been all year. Getting Jake Fisher back has been a huge difference, we've looked like the same old Ducks since he returned.
How about the defense? The Ducks have been giving up a lot more points than usual. Are there any concerns there? How do you expect them to attack the Stanford offense?
There are concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Just using the naked eye you can see that Oregon has trouble tackling in space. But I don't think it's as bad as everyone tries to make it out to be. The Ducks give up 26 points per game which is really right in the middle compared to everyone else. I have buddies that were freaking out about the points we were giving up against Cal. Well, Cal is 11th in the nation in scoring at 41.5 points per game. People also forget to consider how many snaps the defense actually defends. With the way that Oregon's offense scores, the defense ends up on the field for a good chunk of the game... How do we attack Stanford? I honestly don't know. Stanford has beaten us by running the ball relentlessly against us, but last week they opened up a whole new offense. I think Pellum and the crew are going to have to see what Stanford comes out with and adjust accordingly.
GMC:
Finally, what's your prediction for the game? Give me a final score and the path that gets us there.
Fishduck:
Prediction? I hope Oregon comes out and smokes 'em. But the past two meetings would suggest otherwise, so it should be a close game. I think there will be times that Stanford's defense gives the Oregon offense trouble, but the Ducks will break out a couple of big plays that will inevitably lead to touchdowns. By no means do I think Oregon drops 45+ on Stanford (if they do, that'd be great). Stanford's offense should be efficient enough to make it a game. The Cardinal offense is different than most other schemes that other PAC 12 teams run, so it'll be a new challenge for the Ducks. As far as the score goes... I've got 28-21 Oregon with Mariota having his signature "Heisman" moment.
