It's hard to believe that the 2014 season is already half way over, but it's true. We know that the Cardinal is 4-2 after the first six games, and we know how they got there, but how have the individual groups done? I'll look at several different position groups this week, break down what they've contributed thus far, and where needed give some suggestions about should be done in the second half of the season.
Quarterback
Kevin Hogan remains something of a mystery. Consider these strange but true facts:
- He has more passing yards than Sean Mannion, who led the Pac-12 in passing yardage in 2013.
- He has as many passing touchdowns (11) and rushing touchdowns (3) as Brett Hundley, UCLA's one-time Heisman candidate.
- He has more completions than Marcus Mariota, Oregon's one-time Heisman candiate.
While those numbers are all impressive in isolation, Hogan's overall statistics place him near the bottom of the conference. He ranks 6th in yards per passing attempt, 6th in touchdowns, 7th in completion percentage, 8th in yards passing, and 8th in passer rating.
With the way the Pac-12 has changed ove the past few years, it would be difficult for any Stanford quarterback to rank too highly in any of the counting stats, so it probably makes more sense to compare Hogan to himself. We probably can't expect him to duplicate his numbers from the first half (he won't get to play against the UC Davis, Army, or Washington State defenses in the second half, but he will get Cal), but doing so will give us a greater sense of how he's done in comparison to his 2013 regular season.
|
|
2013 |
2014* |
|
Attempts |
259 |
342 |
|
Completions |
158 |
224 |
|
Percentage |
61.00% |
65.50% |
|
Touchdowns |
19 |
22 |
|
Interceptions |
9 |
8 |
|
Sacks |
14** |
24 |
|
Passer Rating |
151.5** |
147.1 |
|
Rushing Att. |
67 |
90 |
|
Rushing Yards |
290 |
134 |
|
Rushing TDs |
2 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
* Projected |
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|
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** 14 Games |
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The first thing that jumps out is how much more of the offense falls on Hogan's shoulders this year. He's on pace to throw almost a hundred more passes than last year (considering the opponents left on the schedule, he'll probably get there), and even though I'd actually like to see more designed runs for him (rollouts, bootlegs, read-options), he's actually running the ball more than he did in 2013. This increase is clearly because there is no dominant lead back in the Stanford backfield for the first time since 2007.
Hogan's completion percentage is up, but that doesn't mean he's become a more accurate passer. In this case it means he has better options. For much of 2013 -- think, especially, the Rose Bowl versus Michigan State -- the Stanford offense was Tyler Gaffney and assorted deep balls from Hogan. Wide receivers Devon Cajuste and Michael Rector hadn't yet become talented route runners, and the tight ends were non-existent, so the playbook was severely limited. In 2014, however, the midrange passing game has returned with the improvements of the receiving corps and the emergence of tight ends Eric Cotton, Austin Hooper, and Greg Taboada. In addition, true freshman running back Christian McCaffrey already looks to be the most talented pass catching running back the Cardinal has had since Glyn Milburn.
Given all that, it should come as no surprise that some of Hogan's numbers are improved over last season. He has far more talent to work with. Unfortunately, some of the same concerns remain. He has a frustrating habit of locking onto his primary receiver and staring a hole into his jersey throughout the route. There are two obvious problems with this. First, opposing defenses are clearly aware of this weakness, so safeties and linebackers need only lock onto Hogan's eyes and follow the bread crumbs to his intended target. Hogan's focus is so singular that he often doesn't seem to see the defense at all. How many times have we seen balls thrown straight to defenders who -- in Hogan's mind -- jumped out of nowhere to make the play?
The second problem is that Hogan almost never looks to his secondary or tertiary receivers. It feels like there have been dozens of critical plays this season when Hogan forced a ball to his primary target, completely unaware that another receiver was wide open on the other side of the field.
The coaching staff is obviously aware of this flaw, and they've certainly worked extensively with Hogan to correct it, but at this point it appears that Kevin Hogan is exactly who he's going to be. Because of this (and because he's likely to be the starter in 2015 as well), the game plan should be adjusted to emphasize his strengths rather than his weaknesses.
- More read-option. Hogan struggled with this play early in his career, but something clicked midway through last season, and the option became an important part of the Stanford offense. I know David Shaw would like to protect Hogan a bit, but it doesn't make sense to take a weapon like this out of the arsenal, especially considering the lack of a dominant running back.
- More designed rollouts. When Hogan is out in space, he's at his best and most accurate, especially when he's rolling to his right. His first career touchdown was on a rollout to the right against Cal in 2012, and he continues to look great on that play in 2014, whether he's firing a strike to his receiver or keeping the ball himself and running for the first down marker or the corner of the end zone.
- More bootlegs. I don't know where this play has gone. Hogan won't draw any comparisons to Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, but he's certainly big enough, strong enough, and fast enough to be a consistent threat on a misdirection play like this. Just once or twice a game, especially in short-yardage situations, would do wonders.
It isn't fair to lay all the blame for Stanford's offensive woes at the feet of Kevin Hogan, but he definitely has to shoulder some of the responsibility. Considering that this is his fourth year in the program and his third year as the starter, more improvement was expected this season. Hopefully we'll see that improvement in the upcoming weeks.
Semester Grade: C
