After spending the last four holiday seasons looking forward to the Orange Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, and two Rose Bowls, it would be understandable if Stanford fans viewed this week's Foster Farms Bowl as something of a disappointment. It certainly isn't the Grand Daddy of 'em all.
But any bowl game is a good bowl game, and not just because of the extra practices that coaches are always telling us about. From a fan's standpoint, bowl games give us one more chance to watch our team, one final chance to cheer departing players, and a look at an opposing team that doesn't always appear on the schedule. Tuesday's Foster Farms Bowl against the Maryland Terrapins might not carry the prestige of last year's Rose Bowl against Michigan State, but it'll do.
Even though they still feel like an ACC team, the Terrapins finished in third place in the Big Ten's East division, behind Ohio State and Michigan State but ahead of traditional powers Michigan and Penn State. Maryland played only two ranked teams, losing by 28 points to the Buckeyes and by 22 to the Spartans. Although they finished 7-5 and 4-4 in conference, I think that record says more about the Big Ten than it does about the Terrapins.
Maryland will struggle to score against the Cardinal defense. The Terrapins rank 73rd nationally in passing and 105th in rushing, and they haven't come up against a defensive unit as complete as Stanford's. If there is a concern regarding the Maryland offense it is with duel threat quarterback C.J. Brown, who threw for over 2,000 yards while leading the Terrapins in rushing with 569 yards. Brown isn't in the same league as Marcus Mariota, but it's worth noting that Stanford linemen had a bit of difficulty sticking with their assignments and maintaining gap integrity against Oregon's read option. They'll have plenty of opportunities on Tuesday to show that they've addressed that issue.
When Stanford has the ball, Kevin Hogan and the rest of the offense will have to prove that their performance in the regular season finale against UCLA was more than just a fluke. David Shaw confirmed on Sunday that wide receiver and kick returner Ty Montgomery will be held out of the game due to his injured shoulder, and while that must be terribly disappointing for the graduating senior, it shouldn't hinder the offense.
Maryland's defense has struggled stopping the run. They've allowed 205 yards rushing per game, good for 98th in the nation, and they've only been a bit better against the pass, yielding 245 yards per game through the air, which is 88th best.
Just looking at all these numbers, it's easy to see why Stanford is favored so heavily (I expect a 34-10 Stanford win), but numbers don't usually tell the whole story. To look a bit deeper at the Terrapins, I contacted two Maryland football experts, Pete Volk of Testudo Times and Jeremy Gold from Turtle Soup. (A few weeks ago Pete asked me some questions about the Cardinal; you can find my answers over at Testudo Times. You can see my answers to Jeremy's questions over at Turtle Soup.)
Anyway, here's the Q&A:
From a fan’s standpoint, how did this first year in the Big Ten go for Maryland? Has it been a good move for the football program?
Until the last week of the season and the disastrous home loss to Rutgers, Maryland's first Big Ten season was an unequivocal success. By and large the fan's viewpoint of the season depends on how much importance they place on that final game -- whether it was a fluke schematic letdown against a team they had otherwise outplayed or yet another disappointing loss to an inferior opponent under Randy Edsall. The conference switch has been undeniably a good one, however -- Maryland has more money in their athletic department, recruiting has increased and they're in a better long-term position than they were in the ACC.
The first year in the Big Ten went great except for the last game. Maryland gave up a 28-point lead to Rutgers. Otherwise, we would have finished 8-4 with road wins at Penn State and Michigan. I understand those programs are having down years but those wins are the first wins Maryland has ever recorded in front of 100,000 fans. Aside from the football team, the move is an economic boon to the University. Unlike some state schools, Maryland gets no taxpayer funding for the athletic department. Without the cash infusion from the Big Ten Network, Maryland would have been in trouble. They were about to cut track for Pete's sake! Who cuts track and field?
Complete this statement: Maryland football is a program that's (on the rise/on the decline/treading water).
The fans are pretty split between on the rise and treading water, but I'd say on the rise. I wrote about the team's improvement after the final game, and all signs point to continued growth under Edsall. It's hard to say exactly how far he can take them, but Maryland has gotten better each year under him so far.
It's on the rise. Kevin Plank, the CEO of Under Armour played football at Maryland. He LOVES the program. He just donated $25MM to build a state-of-the-art indoor practice facility by the stadium. Maryland will finally have the facilities to compete with the bigger schools. It's hard not to look at Oregon and think that Under Armour could do for Maryland what Nike did for the Ducks.
How do Maryland fans view the Stanford football program and this matchup?
I think Maryland fans are, for the most part, excited. Stanford has managed to completely turn around their reputation in the past half-decade or so, and while this season's win-loss record isn't quite as impressive, it's a high-quality program with high-quality athletes. I think most Terrapin fans recognize that this is going to be a very tough game.
I like the matchup. Stanford is a better program and despite the poor timing of the game (10pm East Coast), the Terps will get exposure to a part of the country that never sees us. Stanford has a dominant defense and it will be a tremendous challenge for the Terps to compete against.
Tell us about quarterback C.J. Brown. He threw for more than 2,000 yards but also led the Terrapins in rushing. Is he as dynamic as the stats make him appear? Does his rushing yardage come out of designed plays like draws and read options? Finally, how is he as a passer?
C.J. Brown is a point of contention among Maryland fans. He's the program's all-time leading touchdown scorer, and as you noted, he led the team in rushing. He's been an absolutely dreadful passer against quality defenses in his senior year, however. The Terps had a six-week stretch wherein they faced six top-20 defenses: Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan. During that time, he averaged 5.1 yards per throw with four touchdowns against six interceptions. He's the team's best runner, but he's had a lot of problems in the pass against defenses like Stanford's.
C.J. is a great athlete, but he is an atrocious passer. He can't throw the ball accurately more than 10 yards down the field. He's a frustrating player because Maryland has elite wide receiver talent and we have a subpar quarterback trying to get them the ball. As far as his running, he's done some amazing things, but at the end of the day, I'd rather have a quarterback who can get the ball in the hands of our receivers.
It might be hard to separate Brown from the rest of the Maryland running game, but what can we expect to see when someone other than Brown is running the ball?
Brandon Ross and Wes Brown are Maryland's two main backs, with each posing similar positives and negatives. They're both solid medium-yardage backs -- Ross is more of a deep threat while Brown is more of a power runner -- who struggle with ball security and don't often break off big runs.
Brandon Ross has a tendency to fumble a bit, and Wes Brown tends to make boneheaded plays. Maryland lacks the bulk up front to maintain a traditional running game, so the read option is the only thing that works. CJ is more likely to take it himself than toss it.
What about the receivers and tight ends? Who are the playmakers there, and how do you expect them to perform against the Stanford defense?
Maryland may struggle to get the ball to their playmakers, but they have one of the most talented receiving corps in the nation. Stefon Diggs and Deon Long were All-World prospects coming out of high school, and each has showcased his explosive abilities at the collegiate level. Diggs is returning from a lacerated kidney to play in this one, and he's one of the best big-play threats in the nation. The Terrapins don't use the tight end position all that much, but they have a number of wide receivers capable of making plays.
Stephon Diggs is one of the best receivers in the country. Look up some of his work on YouTube. He's missed the last three games due to injury but should be ready to give it a go at the Foster Farms Bowl. He's already projected as a 4th round pick in this draft and that's after not being able to finish either of the last two seasons due to injuries. If he has a healthy senior year, he could be a second rounder if not a first rounder. Deon Long on the other side is also extremely talented.
Like most quarterbacks, Stanford’s Kevin Hogan has struggled when under duress. What scheme will we see from the Maryland defense, and how do you expect the defensive front to attack Hogan?
Maryland plays a 3-4 defense under Brian Stewart, who was the defensive coordinator with the Cowboys back when DeMarcus Ware was setting sack records. Expect to see a lot of pressure from Yannick Ngakoue and Jesse Aniebonam, a pair of talented young pass-rushers with an affinity for getting into the backfield. Senior defensive end Andre Monroe and nose tackle Darius Kilgo are two of the best defensive linemen in the Big Ten.
Maryland is undersized at the D-Line so I'm thinking the Terps work in a few blitz packages to get pressure. Will Likely is an all Big Ten corner so he can handle one-on-one matchups.
Would you expect the Stanford offense to have more success throwing or running the ball against the Terps? Who are the stars on the defense?
Most teams have had more success running the ball on Maryland. The Terrapins have one of the best cornerbacks in the country in Will Likely, a diminutive cornerback from Florida who has made a number of plays in the secondary this season. The rest of the secondary can be inconsistent, but he makes enough plays to keep Maryland in games. The 3-4 can be tough to defend the run with, and teams have exploited that from time to time.
Running the ball. As mentioned above, we are undersized on the defense front.
What about special teams? Field goal kicker Brad Craddock has had an amazing season, but what about the rest of the unit?
Will Likely can take it to the house on any punt. He's NFL caliber. When healthy and in need of a big return, Stephon Diggs will sometimes return kicks and he is deadly as well. Our punter is average. Craddock is incredible kicking field goals although he doesn't quite have the big leg to get touchbacks consistently on kickoffs.
What has to happen for Maryland to win? What has to happen for Stanford to win?
For Maryland to win, they need to make big plays. The Terrapins' success relies on explosiveness, not efficiency, and players like Diggs and Likely need to come through with scoring plays. For Stanford, I believe the Cardinal win if they're able to limit their mistakes and control the field position.
Finally, what’s your pick? Give me a final score and your thoughts on how it all plays out.
Stanford, 21-17. I think Maryland covers the spread, but the Cardinal match up all too well with Maryland's weaknesses for me to pick a Terrapin victory.
