Stanford has beaten Oregon State five years in a row, and while it's tempting to see that as a sign that the Beavers have been completely outclassed, this is hardly the case. Andrew Luck led the Cardinal to decisive wins in 2010 (38-0) and 2011 (38-13), but the following two seasons with Kevin Hogan at quarterback saw two hotly contested affairs, 27-23 and 20-12. Last year was more comfortable as the Cardinal came away with an easy 38-14 victory, but for some reason the Oregon State game always makes me feel a little uneasy.
Heading into this game, of course, there is more than the usual cause for concern. Hogan's availability won't be known until game time, which would put Keller Chryst and/or Ryan Burns on center stage for the first time in their collegiate careers. Neither has thrown a pass with a game in question, and suddenly it looks like one of them could be the starting quarterback on Saturday.
Beyond that there was the news earlier this week that linebacker Kevin Anderson will miss the game, further impacting Stanford's already thin front seven.
Even with all this going against the Cardinal, this is still a game that they will win. It's difficult to make a score prediction without knowing which quarterback will be behind center, so I'll hedge my bet a bit.
With Hogan: Stanford 34, Oregon State 13. Without Hogan: Stanford 17, Oregon State 10
For a closer look at Oregon State, here's my old friend Angry, who hosts what is probably the most active fan site in the Pac-12, angrybeavs.com. (You can read my answers to his questions over there as well.) So here's Angry...
Go Mighty Card:
Oregon State is only three games into the Gary Andersen Era, but how is it going so far? What can you say about him for sure in terms of how he’s impacted OSU football?
Angry:
So far it's going well. There are growing pains as these pro-style offense players learn a new offense, but last week vs the Spartans things seemed to click more than in the first two games. They're not a well-oiled machine, but they're at least getting noticeably better at it. Andersen's impact has been tremendous so far. He takes accountability, he has the players well-prepared (mentally) for each game, and physically the best he can (Andersen said the players Riley left him were severely deficient in strength categories). They did a lot of strength work over the past eight months and Andersen said they're getting closer to where they need to be, but they're not there yet. Mentally he has them prepared, though. Andersen also never has excuses and is well organized. The overall impact of this is a "breath of fresh air" compared to Riley, who always subtly threw players under the bus, never blamed coordinators, tended to blame players, etc. Andersen seems like a man with a plan -- that's the best way I can put it.
GMC:
How is life after Sean Mannion? What are the expectations for new quarterback Seth Collins, not just for this week, but for the rest of the season and beyond?
Angry:
Life after Sean Mannion is fine. I was never a big fan of Sean Mannion and felt he had a slow delivery and felt that Brandin Cooks made him look all world. Riley also had Mannion throw almost every down, so when he set passing records it was on heavy volume. He was a good QB but not a great one, as people like to think. The expectation for Collins is to improve every game, specifically as a passer. He's not a very good passer at this point. It's hit and miss. He'll throw one great ball, but then five atrocious balls. His completion percentage is low 50s. We don't know if his great passes are the proverbial blind squirrel finding an acorn, or if that's a sign of things to come as he becomes refined. Most Pac-12 schools recruited him as a wide receiver. I personally don't feel you can teach a guy to throw at his age, but time will tell. If he can get to 60% with a respectable QB rating, then with his wheels he will become elite. I don't see it, but some Beaver fans do think he'll grow into that. He runs like a deer, especially outside the tackles in space. When they run him inside, they're asking for an injury. The guy is a beanpole.
GMC:
Even though the Oregon State offense has been as pass-happy as the rest of the Pac-12 over the past few seasons, I still always think of the Beavers as a running team, probably because I’m still scarred by all those big games Jacquizz Rodgers had against the Cardinal. How’s the rushing attack look so far this season?
Angry:
The ground game has been good vs the two weaker opponents, but it was nonexistent versus Michigan. Collins put up a lot of the yards so far, so it's dubious that that can last in conference play. Storm Woods finally looked healthy last week and had a good game. They made some changes on the offensive line that seemed to help, too. Overall, the jury is still out.
GMC:
And what about the passing game? Who are Collins’s favorite targets?
Angry:
The passing game has been poor. As noted, Collins is inefficient. He's been plagued by a few drops, too. I think a lot of this is guys being uncertain about the new offense, a young team with nerves, etc. I expect it to improve as we go through the season. Last week things clicked more, so I'm hoping they can build off that. But to answer your question directly, the passing game has not looked very good at all. Collins's favorite targets are Jordan Villamin and Victor Bolden. Bolden has had several key drops, so look for Hunter Jarmon or Paul Lucas to get their shots.
GMC:
What can you tell me about the OSU defense? Are they experienced enough to make significant changes should Stanford have to sit quarterback Kevin Hogan and play one of their inexperienced backups? Who are the standouts on that side of the ball?
Angry:
The defense is a 3-4 that sometimes alternates to a 4-3. I expect more 4-3 versus Stanford to get an extra big body in there. They tried the 3-4 versus Michigan, and the Beavs just do not have the personnel (i.e. big LBs, huge 3 down linemen) to do that right now, so versus physical teams I think the 4-3 makes more sense. Over time as Andersen recruits guys to suit the defense, I think we'll see 3-4 versus spread teams and a mix versus the power/pro teams. Versus Stanford I expect to see 4-3 on obvious running downs and maybe 3-4 with blitz packages on passing downs. The Beavs also mix in some other formations (e.g. a nickle) depending on down and distance.
GMC:
Stanford has been installed as a significant favorite. What do the Beavers need to do to pull off an upset?
Angry:
I really disagree with that +17 line. Stanford has a short week, they have to travel, and their QB is injured. Oregon State is learning quickly (thank you, Michigan) how to be more physical. I think this game should be much closer than that line. To pull off the upset, the Beavers need to (a) match Stanford's physicality in the trenches (b) execute at a higher level in the passing game (c) continue to get 3rd down stops (d) get the crowd involved -- so far Reser has been quiet (e) get lucky (turnovers, etc).
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction for the game? Give me a final score and your best guess at how the game plays out.
Angry:
It's hard to say since I don't know if Hogan is playing, and know nothing of the backup. The Beavs have a bad history of getting torched by backups. If the backup plays, in general, I'd think the Beavs have a better shot to win this game. My feeling is no matter who plays QB for Stanford this game is closer than people think. My gut says something like 28-24, Stanford. Reason being the Beavers are still learning how to win, and I can see some key errors down the stretch that cost them the game. That being said, to me this has the makings of an upset alert. I just don't have enough information after just three games to know if the Beavers can play a full four quarters and pull that off, so I'm going 28-24 Stanford with the possibility of an upset.