Over the past eight seasons, the matchup with USC has developed into one of the top rivalries on the West Coast and become more interesting than Big Game. But in addition to all the drama and excitement that it has produced each year, the Stanford-USC game has always told us everything we need to know about the state of Stanford football, for better or for worse, stretching back even before the rivalry became competitive.
2006 -- USC 42, Stanford 0
This was rock bottom of the Walt Harris Era, and since the Walt Harris Era was rock bottom for the program, this game was probably absolute lowest point for the 124 year history of Stanford football, even including the rugby years. This was the team's eleventh loss in a row, the biggest loss under Harris, and the fifth straight loss to USC. What did we learn? Stanford football was awful. Some within the University even wondered if it made sense to continue playing Division I football.
2007 -- Stanford 24, USC 23
Jim Harbaugh had arrived and announced plans of winning a championship, but at this point in the season, aside from a nice 37-0 win over San Jose State, the 1-3 team had shown few tangible signs of improvement. But just seven days after rolling over for a 41-3 home loss to Arizona State, Harbaugh's team (underdogs by 43 points) produced the Biggest Upset Ever, shocking the Trojans in the Coliseum. What did we learn? Anything is possible. Seriously.
2008 -- USC 45, Stanford 23
Stanford entered this game at 5-5. Validating the previous year's upset would've put the Cardinal in position to earn its first bowl bid since 2001, but it wasn't to be. What did we learn? Stanford wasn't there yet. Not quite.
2009 -- Stanford 55, USC 21
I still believe that this is the single most important game in the history of Stanford football. Despite their modest 6-3 record, the Cardinal headed south with a bit of a swagger, having just outslugged the #7 Oregon Ducks, 51-42. I could write thousands of words about this game (in fact, I have), but the bottom line is this: Stanford didn't just win, they punched the bully in the face. To quote Jim Harbaugh, they "put fifty on those motherfuckers." What did we learn? Stanford football had become a force to be reckoned with.
2010 -- Stanford 37, USC 35
This game was the first of two consecutive instant classics, and you can still catch it frequently on one or another of ESPN's outlets. (You can read my recap here.) The two teams traded scores throughout the game, but after the Trojans looked like they had it won when they took a one-point lead with 1:15 to play, Andrew Luck engineered a text book drive to put his team in position for a short game-winning field goal at the final gun. Coming the week after a three-touchdown drubbing by Oregon, this game solidified the Cardinal as one of the top teams in the conference. Also, this was the first win of what would became a school-record 17-game winning streak. What did we learn? The program had arrived, and it was here to stay. Oh, and we also learned that Andrew Luck hits like a freight train.
2011 -- Stanford 56, USC 48 (3 OT)
You could make a pretty good argument that this is the greatest game in the history of Stanford football. (Epic recap here.) This win gave the Cardinal sixteen straight wins stretching back to the previous season, and they were an offensive juggernaut, averaging 49.5 points per game over the season's first eight contests. What did we learn? Even at the time, this felt like the peak of Stanford football. It wasn't a national championship, but it felt pretty close. Also, for those who didn't know it already, we learned that there's no one quite like Andrew Luck.
2012 -- Stanford 21, USC 14
The Cardinal was NOT supposed to win this game. Andrew Luck was gone to the NFL, leaving replacement Josh Nunes left to run the offense, and the Trojans came in with a #2 ranking and a Heisman candidate at quarterback. Even so, Stanford grabbed it's fourth straight win over USC, this time riding the backs of the defense. What did we learn? There would actually be life after Andrew Luck.
2013 -- USC 20, Stanford 17
One of the most painful losses in recent Stanford history. Just a week before, Kevin Hogan had led the Cardinal to a 26-20 win over Oregon, and with USC reeling both on the field and off, most assumed that this game would be a walk for Stanford, it's fifth straight in the series. It didn't work out that way, and the loss temporarily removed them from the Rose Bowl race. What did we learn? Kevin Hogan had limitations that could be exposed by a good defense.
2014 -- USC 13, Stanford 10
At the time, this seemed like a complete aberration. Stanford outgained USC by more than a hundred yards, Hogan threw for 150 yards more than USC's Cody Kessler, and every single Stanford possession reached at least the USC 32. (I swear, that last part is true.) So many things went wrong in so many aspects of the game that it was tempting at the time to dismiss the loss as an absolute fluke. As the season wore on, however, it became clear that game had been Stanford's canary in the coal mine, foretelling the red zone struggles and penalty issues that would haunt the team in losses to Notre Dame, Arizona State, and Utah. What did we learn? Stanford's days of red zone domination and offensive efficiency were over.
Without question, this trend will continue with the 2015 contest. After a disappointing loss to Northwestern in the season opener and a moderately better showing in last week's win over Central Florida, we still don't know what to make of this year's Stanford Cardinal. Once again, the sixth-ranked Trojans will give us all the answers. The Trojans are heavy favorites, and few expect the Cardinal to have a chance at coming away with the win, but given the way this series has gone over the past decade, I don't think anyone would truly be surprised with a Stanford victory.
When the final gun sounds on Saturday night, we'll know a lot more about the Cardinal and what to expect from the rest of the season. A loss would diminish expectations and even at this early date put a bowl bid in question.
A win, however, would make people forget about Northwestern. It would mean that the young defensive backs probably were able to stand up to USC's stable of fleet receivers, that Kevin Hogan had proved himself to be senior leader most expect him to be, that the offensive line came together and played its first complete game of the year. A win would mean that Stanford's championship aspirations are legitimate. Not surprisingly, I'm predicting a win -- Stanford 34, USC 31.
For another look at the game, however, I give you Alicia de Artola of Reign of Troy, who was nice enough to answer a few of my questions about the Trojans this week. (You can also catch me on the Reign of Troy podcast; I come in for twenty minutes at the 15:30 mark.) Not surprisingly, she sees things a bit differently than I do. Read on...
How do USC fans and alumni view the program? Is there concern about what’s happened recently with Coach Sarkisian and the rest of the nonsense that sometimes surrounds USC football?
In terms of the team, hopes are very high around USC because there is so much talent available. Whether it is Sarkisian or someone else who takes them to the promised land is the real question. There were already concerns about Sarkisian's ability to coach at a championship level. For those who doubted him, the Salute to Troy situation just reaffirmed their opinions. For those who believe in him, it was generally a slight concern but not one that changed their opinion of the program.
The Trojans have trounced their first two opponents, Arkansas State and Idaho, by a combined score of 114-15. Two part question — why should Stanford fans be terrified, and why should they be hopeful?
Why should they be terrified? Because it is possible that USC really is that good. Yes, Idaho is pretty terrible, but A-State took Missouri to the brink, so what the Trojans did to them looks more legitimate than it might have at first glance. As I said before, the talent at USC is immense. Their meeting their potential should have everyone in the Pac-12 quaking in their boots.
Third-year starter Cody Kessler piled up some impressive numbers over the past two years, and he’s started out well again this fall. How has he improved since last season? Where does he rank amongst USC’s recent quarterbacks, and what has to happen for him to win the Heisman?
It's hard to say that Kessler has improved when we already knew that he can put up big numbers on inferior competition. The real test for Kessler will be doing those same types of things against the top dogs -- which he hasn't really been able to do at USC. He's probably in the range of Mark Sanchez at the moment. Not quite up there with Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, or even Matt Barkley, but with room to rise. To win the Heisman Kessler needs to lead USC to an undefeated record. He doesn't have the flashy style of Heisman winners in the recent past, favoring efficiency over excitement, but an unbeaten Trojan quarterback will always have a chance in New York.
How important is the USC running game? Whom should we look out for on Saturday?
Very important. Sarkisian insists that USC is a run-first team, and while that may not always be true, strong rushing performances usually result in Trojan victories. Tre Madden is the starter. A powerful, yet explosive back, Madden has the potential to be as dominant a Trojan rusher as there has been in years... if he can stay healthy. Also look out for the lightning to Madden's Thunder in Justin Davis and a trio of true freshman who have looked bright in the early weeks.
How good is JuJu Smith-Schuster? How good might Biggie Marshall be on the other side of the ball?
Smith-Schuster is as talented as any of USC's top level receivers of the last few years and can be as good as Robert Woods, Marqise Lee or Nelson Agholor if his progression continues. Marshall is a big, physical corner who will almost certainly etch his name among the great Trojan cornerbacks in history. Whether he can reach that top level so early in his career is just a matter of watching to find out. The conventional wisdom is that if Adoree' Jackson could do it, Marshall can too.
Who are the stars that we should watch for on the Trojan defense? What concerns, if any, are there going up against the Stanford offense?
Su'a Cravens is the captain and star of the defense, so he is certainly one to watch, especially as he disrupts plays in the backfield. If young linebackers like Porter Gustin, Cam Smith, and Osa Masina prove they can put in the same level of performances against Pac-12 foes as they did against the Sun Belt, they'll be household names before long. The concern will be the defensive line. This front is still adjusting to life without Leonard Williams, so they're the most vulnerable unit on the defense.
Okay, Andre Heidari. He’s finally gone, right?
He is definitely gone. And new kicker Alex Wood has one career field goal to his name, though that doesn't mean he can't continue the tradition of being a Stanford killer. His debut was actually against Stanford in 2012 when Heidari was hurt, but Lane Kiffin didn't trust him enough to take a field goal.
Finally, what’s your prediction for the game?
I think the Trojans will have too much fire power on offense for the Cardinal to keep up. So I'm predicting a scoreline of 35-17. That's not to say I wouldn't be surprised if the game was much closer than that if the offense cannot get going. It is just so hard to tell what is real for both teams right now.
