Much has been made of Stanford's winning streak against UCLA, but it should be noted that the Cardinal has a longer streak, if measured in years, against Washington State. Stanford has topped the Cougars seven times in a row, and only once during that time has the margin of victory been as small as seven points. Most years it's been a blowout with scores like 58-0, 44-14, and 55-17.
To be fair, the Cougs have been in disarray for much of the past seven years, posting a cumulative 21-65 record and reaching just one bowl game, the 2013 New Mexico Bowl which they lost in devastating fashion. The arrival of head coach Mike Leach in 2012 brought new optimism to the program, but it's only this year that that optimism has translated to consistency on the football field.
The Cougs suffered a disappointing early loss to FCS Portland State, but they've bounced back nicely and put together a 5-2 record that has them controlling their own destiny for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game. They'll obviously need to beat Stanford on Saturday night to keep that hope alive, and they'll look to do that with one of the most prolific passing attacks you'll ever see. To say that quarterback Luke Falk is filling up the stat sheet would be a massive understatement. In his first four Pac-12 games, Falk is averaging 453 yards passing on 58 attempts. He was 50 for 74 with 505 yards and five touchdowns in an overtime win over Oregon, and two weeks ago he topped that with 514 yards in a win over Arizona.
Before those numbers make your head explode, take a look at the numbers that will actually decide this game. The Washington State defense has been more like an end zone welcoming party than anything else. They currently rank 97th in the nation in rush defense, allowing 199 yards per game, but in recent weeks they've been even worse than that, yielding an average of 268 yards to Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona. They've also allowed 31 points per game, good for 89th in the nation, yielding 34, 38, 31, and 42 points in conference play.
The Stanford game plan will obviously be to run early and often, giving the Cougars heavy doses of Christian McCaffrey, Bryce Love, and Remound Wright in order to keep the hands on the clock spinning and keep Luke Falk on the sidelines. Time of possession and total rushing yards will be the key numbers to watch, and Stanford will dominate both categories. Expect the Cardinal to rush for over 300 yards (with 200+ for McCaffrey) and keep the ball for over forty minutes. Stanford 41, Washington State 17.
For another perspective, however, I reached out to the WSU Football Blog and they dispatched a mysterious man named Longball to answer all my questions about the Cougs. (You can read my answers to their questions about the Cardinal over there as well.) Read on...
GMC:
The most interesting character in the Pac-12, obviously, is Mike Leach. Is he a hero up in the Palouse?
Longball:
Sports fans are a fickle bunch. The truth is that up until the last few weeks the fan base was deeply divided on coach Leach. We had seen very little of the exciting brand of football we were told to expect, and the standard excuses of having inherited an under-talented team with a bad culture were losing their credibility. After losing to Portland State Leach's approval rating with fans really cratered and even among his remaining "supporters" there didn't seem to be a lot of confidence. Of course, now we are the epitome of the old adage, "winning cures everything." Leach is basically the king of the Palouse now. Not only are we winning like we haven't done in over a decade, but the football we are watching on Saturdays is a blast. I think we have learned a couple things so far: Leach isn't necessarily one of those "coaches you can lose with." His personality just exacerbates fan frustration when things are not going well (mike Price and Bill Doba were the opposite of this). However, Leach is clearly still able to coach at a high level, and the concepts he has been grinding to instill in this team for 3+ years do seem to work after all. That means for the rest of his tenure we may not have to endure as much losing as we have been.
GMC:
The Cougs are 5-2, with at least one disappointing loss and a couple great wins. How good is this team, and what are fans expecting from them the rest of the way?
Longball:
At this point the Portland State loss is the only real blemish on the record. The other loss came on the road to a hot Cal team, and most Coug fans feel we acquitted ourselves well that day. A close call against what appears to be a bad Rutgers team, and a slow start against a struggling Wyoming, are fine with fans because the team battled through adversity and found ways to win. That is something we just haven't seen in a long time. So the general consensus is that this is a very good team who is in the midst of improving dramatically on a weekly basis. Our opener was an all-time stinker in the history of the program, but since that game it has basically been a steady and dramatic upward trajectory. Our offense is almost achieving peak performance each week, and our defense is good enough to get the few crucial stops it takes to win when you are scoring over 40 points a game. This team's weak spots are almost all attributable to youth, but it is talented youth who are showing enough flashes of ability to be excited for the future. Of course, then there is special teams. Somehow our special teams have managed to both improve dramatically, and still suffer frequent catastrophic breakdowns almost on cue.
GMC:
Washington State lost Connor Halliday, the fourth-most prolific passer in Pac-12 history, but the passing game might be even better this year, at least according to the numbers. Tell me about Luke Falk. What are his strengths and weaknesses as a quarterback?
Longball:
Luke Falk has two primary attributes that he is maximizing to devastating effect against opposing defenses this year. One, he takes care of the ball and two, he is very accurate. There is a lot of handwringing on the Palouse about how long he holds on to the ball, but he is just very risk averse when it comes to turnovers. I think the record of this team is testament to the idea that a sack resulting in a punt is much better than an interception. While it is maddening at times to see him take so many sacks when he has a long time to throw, he has also shown a propensity to convert long 3rd and 4th down throws again and again. He just has the confidence to take a sack, preserve possession, and strike deep on the next play to make up for it. Don't expect a lot of rifle shots into tight coverages, or deep shots down field. Falk will take what the defense gives and when he has a man open, he will hit him in stride. It has been a thing of beauty the last few weeks.
GMC:
What about the rest of the offense? Who are Falk’s primary targets? How do the Cougs use the running game?
Longball:
Falk's primary targets are Gabe Marks, Dom Williams, and River Cracraft. Marks and Williams will work the boundaries mostly and are big play guys. Marks especially is a guy who can score suddenly and often. Cracraft is a posession receiver who has made a living getting open in the middle of the field and hanging on to the ball in traffic. There is a fleet of very good receivers supporting these guys who will get plenty of touches themselves. Expect eight or more players at the receiver position alone to notch receptions. The running game has been very effective this year. The Air Raid offense usually counts on the QB to check into a run and Falk has shown more willingness to do that than his predecessor. He has a nice stable of backs to give the ball to. Wicks is the 220 lb bruiser of the bunch, Morrow is a smaller, shiftier back, and freshman Harrington is a pure speedster. While we only run around 20 true running plays a game, this group will get plenty of touches on swing passes and screens. When we do run the ball this year, we have had a lot of success ripping off large chunks of yards.
GMC:
The big question, obviously, is the defense. Who are the stars here, and how will they defend the Cardinal?
Longball:
I'll point out a key player at each level of the defense. On the line, Destiny Vaeao is a veteran and a big physical presence. He will be crucial against a powerful team like Stanford. At linebacker, Peyton Pelluer has emerged as a consistent playmaker and is becoming a fan favorite. At corner, Darrien Molton is a rising talent. At safety Shalom Luani is probably the defensive player of the year so far. It is fitting that he got the game winning interception against Oregon since his play in the secondary has really signaled the shift this unit has made to make such wins possible. I'm not sure how this unit will look against the power formations the Cardinal run. We have a nickle defense as our base, designed to slow the spread offenses so prolific across college football now, so playing a more traditional power running team with heavily involved tight ends may prove problematic. There is also the questions of how to negate Stanford's physical edge. We may attempt to sneak a few extra guys onto the field whenever the refs aren't looking. We also probably have to assign half the defense to McCaffrey. Our new D Coordinator, Alex Grinch, comes from the SEC, so he has some experience taking on power running attacks.
GMC:
It’s ridiculous that this game is being played on Halloween night, but we might as well play along. If you could dress up as any person connected with Washington State football, who would it be and why?
Longball:
Obviously there will be a lot of pirate costumes that night. In the interest of originality I will opt for something different. A Tiki god seems apt, as a nod to our past and current great Polynesian players, but as a hauli, I don't want to offend anyone via (likely inaccurate) cultural appropriation. I think an animated dancing football would pretty much be a home run. You'd have to have been an active Coug fan attending games in the 2001-2003 glory days to appreciate the reference, but for those that get it, you'd be a hero. If a football costume can't be obtained, the backup plan is the ever popular blind referee. Though I may tweak that to be a blind booth review official. Oooooooh, oooh, just thinking of this now, but this would probably be a great opportunity to break out that lumberjack costume in the back of the closet. You know, for chopping down trees? Get it?
GMC:
Okay, so who’s gonna win? Give me your final score and an explanation.
Longball:
I don't think there is a very rational or sober way to predict a Wazzu victory with any degree of confidence. I do think we will get more points than the Card are used to giving up, but I don't expect another game in the 40s. Low 30s would be an accomplishment against a team that is so physical and keeps the clock running. I expect the Card offense to have some success, but for the margin of victory to really be secured by the special teams. For some reason, even though we can't cover kicks to save our lives, we keep kicking to great returners. If there isn't a frat with a foolproof plan to kidnap McCaffrey he ought to have a field day. He is the perfect weapon against a defense that sometimes still forgets how to tackle and kick coverage teams that sometimes forget which end zone they are defending. I hope we can make you guys sweat it out for the majority of the game, but I really do expect you to be able to pull away. That said, by game time I will have totally convinced myself that we are going to roll. For that to happen the Card will need to help us out with a lackluster performance and we will have to be ready to pounce on them ruthlessly if they do. I'll say final score Card 41, Cougs 28.
We are so excited to join you all in this battle for the Pac North title while Oregon watches from the sideline. Here's to a great game, and Happy Halloweeeeeeeeeen!
