There are few opponents which illustrate the rise of Stanford football quite as clearly as Notre Dame. During the Dark Days of the last decade, Stanford lost to the Irish seven years in a row, including a 57-7 drubbing in 2003. Since the Ascension of Andrew Luck in 2009, however, the Cardinal actually leads the series, winning four of six games. (Luck was 3-0, Josh Nunes was at the helm for the controversial overtime loss in 2012, and Kevin Hogan split his two starts in 2013 and '14.)
For me, the highlight of this recent run was the 2009 game, a 45-38 Stanford win that should've clinched the Heisman Trophy for Toby Gerhart. Stanford football has come a long way since that game, but at the time it felt like something of a high-water mark. After trailing for much of the evening, the Cardinal fought its way back with power running that would become a signature of the program over the next several years. Gerhart finished with 205 yards rushing and three touchdowns (plus a passing touchdown thrown in just for fun), as he single-handedly carried the Cardinal to victory.
If there's a single play that captured his dominance, it was this run up the middle on the game-winning touchdown drive:
Stanford would follow this formula to wins the next two years, with Stepfan Taylor accounting for 108 of Stanford's 166 yards rushing in a convincing 37-14 win in 2010 and 118 of a total 196 as Stanford doubled up the Irish in 2011, 28-14. Taylor again topped 100 yards in 2012, but it was the yard that he didn't get (or wasn't awarded, depending on your point of view), that cost the Cardinal in a controversial overtime loss.
A 27-20 win in 2013 featured a different Stanford back in another dominant performance. Tyler Gaffney carried 33 times for 189 yards and a touchdown, helping the Cardinal to a huge edge in time of possession (34:42-25:18) that would prove too much for the Irish to overcome.
Things were different in 2014. Notre Dame fielded a strong defense last season, but this was still an awful performance by the Stanford offense, which was held to just 47 yards rushing. Even given that futility, it looked for a moment as if the Cardinal would escape South Bend with a victory when Remound Wright scored to give Stanford a 14-10 lead with three minutes to play, but it wasn't meant to be.
| Year |
Leading Rusher |
Final Score |
| 2009 | Toby Gerhart, 205 | Stanford, 45-38 |
| 2010 | Stepfan Taylor, 108 | Stanford, 37-14 |
| 2011 | Stepfan Taylor, 118 | Stanford, 28-14 |
| 2012 | Stepfan Taylor, 102 | Notre Dame, 20-13 |
| 2013 | Tyler Gaffney, 189 | Stanford, 27-20 |
| 2014 | Remound Wright, 29 | Notre Dame, 17-14 |
Looking at the chart above, it seems clear what the Cardinal will have to do to come away with the win on Saturday. With Christian McCaffrey riding a school-record streak of nine consecutive hundred yard games, it seems it will take a tenth to secure victory. How likely is this? Notre Dame sits roughly in the middle of the pack (58th out of 128 teams) in rushing defense, allowing 166.8 yards per game, but it's always a good idea to look more closely at statistics like that. How about another table? Take a look at how Notre Dame's opponents have fared against the Irish as compared to their performances against everyone else on their schedules. The numbers listed in the Average column reflect each team's rushing average against non-Irish opponents.
| Opponent | Average | vs. ND | Difference |
| Texas (4-7) | 248.2 | 60 | -188 |
| Virginia (4-7) | 134.8 | 127 | -8 |
| Georgia Tech (3-8) | 266.3 | 216 | -50 |
| UMass (2-9) | 126.4 | 148 | +22 |
| Clemson (11-0) | 212 | 212 | 0 |
| Navy (9-2) | 352.4 | 318 | -34 |
| USC (7-4) | 173.5 | 150 | -23 |
| Temple (9-2) | 163.1 | 107 | -56 |
| Pitt (8-4) | 169.8 | 175 | +5 |
| Wake Forest (3-8) | 102.9 | 121 | +18 |
| Boston College (3-8) | 153.2 | 214 | +61 |
Notre Dame's rush defense seems to be trending downward, something which could give the Cardinal an advantage. Two mediocre teams, Wake Forest and Boston College, each had unexpected success against the Irish, so it's tempting to expect big things from McCaffrey. Stanford averages 228.3 yards per game on the ground, sixteenth best in the nation, so this is a matchup they should win, and that will go a long way towards winning the game. My prediction is for a 37-31 Stanford win.
For the other side of this story, allow me to introduce this week's special guest, Reuben Hochstetler from Irish Sports Talk, one of the co-hosts for one of the best college football podcasts around. (You can listen to Reuben and his fellow Domers give multiple perspectives on the questions below, along with a discussion of my answers to their questions about the Cardinal, on their most recent podcast.)
The Irish are currently just outside the top four. If you allow yourself to assume a win against Stanford, how do you feel Notre Dame stacks up against the top teams in the country? Is this team capable of winning a national championship?
Notre Dame struggled last week against a bad Boston College team, but with a win over Stanford and a month to get healthy I would be confident this team could win a semifinal playoff game but not the championship.
Every team has bad games once in a while, but what has been Notre Dame’s best game this season? Take into account both the opponent and Notre Dame’s performance in the game.
It sounds crazy to say but Navy is Notre Dame's most impressive win (so far) this season. The Irish held Navy to their lowest point total of the season while scoring more on Navy than any other team.
I obviously have to ask about Notre Dame’s injuries. How has this team managed to keep things together with so many key pieces missing? How do you expect injuries to affect Saturday’s game?
The Irish have surpassed expectation in the face of all the injuries. The reason for the success is some recruiting, developing, and luck. Probably the biggest impact from injury will be lead rusher C.J. Prosise who was a backup when the season started. The next man in is Josh Adams, who has speed and runs with power, but doesn't have the vision or patience of C.J. In previous games when the running game was struggling, C.J. was used in the passing game, and that's one area Josh Adams hasn't been used much.
So what about DeShone Kizer? His numbers are absolutely frightening. What are his strengths and weaknesses as a quarterback?
DeShone (the Shine) Kizer will be the Irish starting QB as long as he continues to wear the blue and gold. Physically, he has great arm strength, good touch and accuracy, and runs the ball effectively. On the intangibles, he has better pocket awareness than previous Brian Kelly quarterbacks, and the coaches have said he's able to self correct on his mistakes. But Kizer is playing his first year of college football, and defenses have had success in confusing him by bringing new looks that he doesn't recognize, and I expect that to be the case against Stanford. One other weakness that Brian Kelly has mentioned is his mindset when in the red zone. Kizer needs to be in the mindset that the worst case scenario is three points; right now he's playing as if zero points is the worst case.
With both a receiver (Will Fuller) and a running back (C.J. Prosise) who have topped one thousand yards, Notre Dame is probably the most balanced offense Stanford has seen this season. How do you expect them to come out against Stanford? How much does Prosise’s status affect this answer?
Against Boston College Will Fuller was the 3rd leading receiver and stats only showed one target and zero catches in the first half, but there were 2 plays in which penalties were called against the defense on those plays. For Notre Dame to beat Stanford the Irish need to start fast, and getting the ball into Will Fuller's hands is the best way to do that. With the absence of C.J. Prosise the Irish offense will look different. They won't be likely to pass to Josh Adams and will likely go away from the running game in general in order to push the ball down the field for quick scores.
Like I said, the Irish need to score fast and often to win this game, so I expect Notre Dame to push the ball down the field, and my gut tells me that they will use some no huddle to swing momentum Notre Dame's way. (The Irish do not use no huddle, so this is a gut feeling.) I think the lead goes back and forth with the Irish scoring on a go ahead TD in the 4th quarter for a 33-30 victory.
