As Stanford readies to play its fourth straight bowl game against a Big Ten opponent (you can be forgiven if you've forgotten that Maryland is now in the Big Ten; they'll always be an ACC team in my mind), it's important that we understand that these Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the best teams in the country. The problem the Hawkeyes faced is that they played in the giant shadows of Ohio State and Michigan State and the University of Harbaugh. If Stanford was playing on the dark side of the moon (West Coast), Iowa was playing behind a total eclipse.
Both teams will be on the big stage in Pasadena, and it promises to be a great matchup. I still believe that there is no offense in football that can match Stanford's, and once again Christian McCaffrey will be the difference maker. The Hawkeyes haven't seen a player of his caliber all season, and I'm guessing it will take them a quarter or two to adjust their schemes to account for him. The Cardinal has scored thirty points or more in twelve straight games now, and Friday will make a baker's dozen.
Defensively, Stanford should benefit from the four weeks of rest since the conference championship game, and the team will be completely healthy for the first time in months. With all of this going for them, I expect a 37-27 win.
But you knew I'd say that, didn't you? For another look at things, I contacted the Iowa Hawkeye site, Black Heart Gold Pants, and they dispatched on of their agents, RossWB to answer all my questions about Iowa football. Enjoy...
GoMightyCard:
Quite honestly, there is no better bowl game than the Rose Bowl. Can you give me a sense of how excited you are personally for this experience? And what about the Iowa fanbase? How big is this for Hawkeye Nation?
Quite honestly, there is no better bowl game than the Rose Bowl. Can you give me a sense of how excited you are personally for this experience? And what about the Iowa fanbase? How big is this for Hawkeye Nation?
RossWB:
Personally, I'm thrilled; the only way I could be more thrilled would be if I was able to attend the game personally, but unfortunately the logistics didn't work out for me this year. (Hopefully Iowa doesn't make me wait 25 years until the next Rose Bowl trip...) "Thrilled" is probably a great way to describe the reaction of the fanbase in general, too. The Rose Bowl has a special hold on Iowa fans, and this is a game that Iowa fans have been waiting 25 years to attend, so there's an incredible energy and excitement among the fanbase about Iowa being in this game. The fact that this game is coming after one of the most extraordinary seasons in Iowa history makes it even more special. The only game that would be bigger than this for Iowa and Iowa fans would probably be a national championship game, in all honesty. The Rose Bowl stands alone, and having to wait so long to get back here has only amplified that feeling for Iowa fans.
Personally, I'm thrilled; the only way I could be more thrilled would be if I was able to attend the game personally, but unfortunately the logistics didn't work out for me this year. (Hopefully Iowa doesn't make me wait 25 years until the next Rose Bowl trip...) "Thrilled" is probably a great way to describe the reaction of the fanbase in general, too. The Rose Bowl has a special hold on Iowa fans, and this is a game that Iowa fans have been waiting 25 years to attend, so there's an incredible energy and excitement among the fanbase about Iowa being in this game. The fact that this game is coming after one of the most extraordinary seasons in Iowa history makes it even more special. The only game that would be bigger than this for Iowa and Iowa fans would probably be a national championship game, in all honesty. The Rose Bowl stands alone, and having to wait so long to get back here has only amplified that feeling for Iowa fans.
GMC:
The other side of that coin, obviously, is how close the Hawkeyes came to earning a spot in the playoffs. How did the team handle that disappointment? Have they (and the fans) fully embraced the Rose Bowl as a consolation prize?
The other side of that coin, obviously, is how close the Hawkeyes came to earning a spot in the playoffs. How did the team handle that disappointment? Have they (and the fans) fully embraced the Rose Bowl as a consolation prize?
RossWB:
I'm sure the team is still feeling some pangs of disappointment -- it would be hard for them not to feel that way, given how close they were to winning and claiming a spot in the College Football Playoff. But from all their comments in the build-up to the Rose Bowl they seem pretty energized to be in the Rose Bowl and I don't think there will be much of a hangover effect on the way they play on Friday. As far as the sentiment of the fanbase... I think it's pretty similar. There's a touch of disappointment at having been so close to the College Football Playoff, but the Rose Bowl is a heckuva consolation prize. I think the disappointment factor would be much stronger if Iowa were in any other bowl game, but the Rose Bowl has a particular hold on Iowa fans, so the fact that Iowa gets to make that trip for the first time in 25 years is making up for the sting of losing the Big Ten Championship Game.
I'm sure the team is still feeling some pangs of disappointment -- it would be hard for them not to feel that way, given how close they were to winning and claiming a spot in the College Football Playoff. But from all their comments in the build-up to the Rose Bowl they seem pretty energized to be in the Rose Bowl and I don't think there will be much of a hangover effect on the way they play on Friday. As far as the sentiment of the fanbase... I think it's pretty similar. There's a touch of disappointment at having been so close to the College Football Playoff, but the Rose Bowl is a heckuva consolation prize. I think the disappointment factor would be much stronger if Iowa were in any other bowl game, but the Rose Bowl has a particular hold on Iowa fans, so the fact that Iowa gets to make that trip for the first time in 25 years is making up for the sting of losing the Big Ten Championship Game.
GMC:
The narrative surrounding Iowa throughout the season has been the lack of respect they’ve received. (Stanford fans know something about that, as we’ll all tell you that Christian McCaffrey was robbed of his Heisman Trophy.) Having watched all of Iowa’s games, what do you see in this team that the doubters don’t? Why do you believe this is a great team?
The narrative surrounding Iowa throughout the season has been the lack of respect they’ve received. (Stanford fans know something about that, as we’ll all tell you that Christian McCaffrey was robbed of his Heisman Trophy.) Having watched all of Iowa’s games, what do you see in this team that the doubters don’t? Why do you believe this is a great team?
RossWB:
I think the level of confidence this team has displayed has been the most impressive thing about this team. There was not much in the way of positive buzz around Iowa football entering the 2015 season, thanks to several years of mediocre results and a particularly painful ending to last year: three straight loses, including a really galling come-from-ahead loss at home to Nebraska and a complete beatdown at the hands of Tennessee in the Gator Bowl. But this team has never played like a team with a cloud of negativity hanging over it or let the pessimism of the fanbase affect it. They just went about their business and kept racking up wins, and as the season progressed and the fanbase got fully behind the team and the pressure to stay perfect mounted, they maintained that same confidence and didn't allow the pressure or mounting distractions to impact them.
I think the level of confidence this team has displayed has been the most impressive thing about this team. There was not much in the way of positive buzz around Iowa football entering the 2015 season, thanks to several years of mediocre results and a particularly painful ending to last year: three straight loses, including a really galling come-from-ahead loss at home to Nebraska and a complete beatdown at the hands of Tennessee in the Gator Bowl. But this team has never played like a team with a cloud of negativity hanging over it or let the pessimism of the fanbase affect it. They just went about their business and kept racking up wins, and as the season progressed and the fanbase got fully behind the team and the pressure to stay perfect mounted, they maintained that same confidence and didn't allow the pressure or mounting distractions to impact them.
GMC:
Tell me about C.J. Beathard. How did he handle the pressure of quarterbacking an undefeated team for twelve weeks? How important is his success to the Iowa offense?
Tell me about C.J. Beathard. How did he handle the pressure of quarterbacking an undefeated team for twelve weeks? How important is his success to the Iowa offense?
RossWB:
He did an unbelievable job of handling that pressure. He was a player that Iowa fans were excited about last year and that they were very eager to see get handed the main reins when the first 2015 depth chart was released and his name was atop the quarterback position. His play this year more than lived up to those expectations, I think. His stats definitely aren't incredibly splashy, but he was an efficient and effective quarterback for Iowa. His ability to throw the deep ball helped open up the field for the offense, which had been far too compressed in recent years. His ability to make plays with his legs and extend drives was also invaluable and a key factor in Iowa's ability to covert third downs (43%, 37th in the nation). And it doesn't get reflected in the stats at all, but he's also provided leadership that the rest of the team really seems to have responded to well. There's been a chorus all year from the players about the strong leadership on this team, and a lot of that starts with Beathard. He's been a huge part of Iowa's success this year and it's hard to imagine Iowa having the success they did this year without him.
He did an unbelievable job of handling that pressure. He was a player that Iowa fans were excited about last year and that they were very eager to see get handed the main reins when the first 2015 depth chart was released and his name was atop the quarterback position. His play this year more than lived up to those expectations, I think. His stats definitely aren't incredibly splashy, but he was an efficient and effective quarterback for Iowa. His ability to throw the deep ball helped open up the field for the offense, which had been far too compressed in recent years. His ability to make plays with his legs and extend drives was also invaluable and a key factor in Iowa's ability to covert third downs (43%, 37th in the nation). And it doesn't get reflected in the stats at all, but he's also provided leadership that the rest of the team really seems to have responded to well. There's been a chorus all year from the players about the strong leadership on this team, and a lot of that starts with Beathard. He's been a huge part of Iowa's success this year and it's hard to imagine Iowa having the success they did this year without him.
GMC:
The Iowa running game looks to be diverse. The flashes I’ve seen of Jordan Canzeri have been impressive, but what about the other guys? Would you classify Iowa as a run-first offense?
The Iowa running game looks to be diverse. The flashes I’ve seen of Jordan Canzeri have been impressive, but what about the other guys? Would you classify Iowa as a run-first offense?
RossWB:
I think characterizing Iowa as a run-first offense is pretty accurate. Iowa ran the ball on about 60% of their offensive plays this year, which certainly suggests a heavy focus on the running game. That's been a general trend for Kirk Ferentz's entire tenure at Iowa, too, but this year it also made a lot of sense because the offensive line was very good at run blocking (a bit better than they are at pass blocking, frankly) and because Iowa had a bevy of capable and talented running backs. Canzeri has been Iowa's most effective runner this year -- a good blend of speed, surprising power, and great instincts. He was excellent at reading his blocking and hitting the right hole at the right moment. He's expected to be healthy for the Rose Bowl, which will certainly be a boost for the Iowa running game.
I think characterizing Iowa as a run-first offense is pretty accurate. Iowa ran the ball on about 60% of their offensive plays this year, which certainly suggests a heavy focus on the running game. That's been a general trend for Kirk Ferentz's entire tenure at Iowa, too, but this year it also made a lot of sense because the offensive line was very good at run blocking (a bit better than they are at pass blocking, frankly) and because Iowa had a bevy of capable and talented running backs. Canzeri has been Iowa's most effective runner this year -- a good blend of speed, surprising power, and great instincts. He was excellent at reading his blocking and hitting the right hole at the right moment. He's expected to be healthy for the Rose Bowl, which will certainly be a boost for the Iowa running game.
The other three running backs Iowa has used extensively are LeShun Daniels, Derrick Mitchell, and Akrum Wadley. Mitchell is Iowa's primary third-down back and he's been effective in that role, skilled at picking up blitzes and catching passes to extend drives. Wadley is Iowa's best big-play threat on offense -- he ran for 463 yards and 7 TDs on 74 carries this year, a team-best 6.3 yards per carry. He's Iowa's best option to break a big play on offense, which may be necessary to keep pace with Stanford. Daniels is nominally Iowa's power back, and he's definitely Iowa's biggest and strongest back, but he has a deceptive amount of speed and shiftiness as well. All four should see action in Friday's game, although I'd expect Canzeri to get most of the work if he's healthy and effective.
GMC:
What type of scheme does Iowa play defensively? How do you expect them to attack Stanford’s offense? Can we expect to see aggressive blitzing a more conservative approach?
What type of scheme does Iowa play defensively? How do you expect them to attack Stanford’s offense? Can we expect to see aggressive blitzing a more conservative approach?
RossWB:
Iowa runs a base 4-3 defense with primarily quarters coverage and doesn't typically blitz all that much, although they've blitzed more under Phil Parker than they did under prior defensive coordinator Norm Parker (no relation). I wouldn't expect them to deviate too much from that approach in this game, although it may be necessary to blitz a little bit more if they're not able to get sufficient pressure on Hogan with just the front four. That said, Iowa is definitely not what I would characterize as an aggressive blitzing team, and it would be a surprise to see them change things up that radically for this game. I expect them to play the way they typically do, which emphasizes a "bend-but-don't-break" approach that allows short gains to an opposing team but prevents big plays and forces them to string together a lot of short gains.
Iowa runs a base 4-3 defense with primarily quarters coverage and doesn't typically blitz all that much, although they've blitzed more under Phil Parker than they did under prior defensive coordinator Norm Parker (no relation). I wouldn't expect them to deviate too much from that approach in this game, although it may be necessary to blitz a little bit more if they're not able to get sufficient pressure on Hogan with just the front four. That said, Iowa is definitely not what I would characterize as an aggressive blitzing team, and it would be a surprise to see them change things up that radically for this game. I expect them to play the way they typically do, which emphasizes a "bend-but-don't-break" approach that allows short gains to an opposing team but prevents big plays and forces them to string together a lot of short gains.
GMC:
Tell me about Desmond King. How does he fit into Iowa’s defensive scheme? Is he a lockdown corner who will take away a specific receiver, or does he stick to one side of the field?
Tell me about Desmond King. How does he fit into Iowa’s defensive scheme? Is he a lockdown corner who will take away a specific receiver, or does he stick to one side of the field?
RossWB:
Iowa doesn't tend to move cornerbacks around based on match-ups -- King (and his counterpart, Greg Mabin) tend to stick to their respective side of the field and cover the receiver over there. That's been a point of some contention among Iowa fans -- King has very strong coverage skills, and some Iowa fans would prefer to have him just stick to a single receiver, especially when the other team has a particularly dynamic threat on the outside. But the overall results on defense have certainly been good enough (both this year and overall under Kirk Ferentz and Phil Parker) that it's hard to complain too much. King is probably the best cornerback Iowa's had under Ferentz and Parker, a quick, physical defender with very good coverage skills, strong ball skills, and excellent tackling ability.
Iowa doesn't tend to move cornerbacks around based on match-ups -- King (and his counterpart, Greg Mabin) tend to stick to their respective side of the field and cover the receiver over there. That's been a point of some contention among Iowa fans -- King has very strong coverage skills, and some Iowa fans would prefer to have him just stick to a single receiver, especially when the other team has a particularly dynamic threat on the outside. But the overall results on defense have certainly been good enough (both this year and overall under Kirk Ferentz and Phil Parker) that it's hard to complain too much. King is probably the best cornerback Iowa's had under Ferentz and Parker, a quick, physical defender with very good coverage skills, strong ball skills, and excellent tackling ability.
GMC:
Aside from the game itself, what are you most looking forward to about the Rose Bowl experience?
Aside from the game itself, what are you most looking forward to about the Rose Bowl experience?
RossWB:
I'm sure I would have a very different response if I were going to be in attendance, but I'm looking forward to taking in the whole presentation on TV. The Rose Bowl always looks phenomenal and it will have an added jolt with Iowa being part of the game and tens of thousands of Iowa fans painting the stands black and gold. And having Brent Musberger on the call will add to that "big game" feel, too. I'm looking forward to just drinking in the whole experience.
I'm sure I would have a very different response if I were going to be in attendance, but I'm looking forward to taking in the whole presentation on TV. The Rose Bowl always looks phenomenal and it will have an added jolt with Iowa being part of the game and tens of thousands of Iowa fans painting the stands black and gold. And having Brent Musberger on the call will add to that "big game" feel, too. I'm looking forward to just drinking in the whole experience.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation as to how the game plays out.
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation as to how the game plays out.
RossWB:
I expect a very good game, one that figures to be close in the fourth quarter. The three things that I think will be most important are turnovers, special teams, and whether or not Stanford is able to wear down the Iowa defense. Iowa's been excellent at forcing turnovers (and not turning the ball over themselves), while Stanford has done a tremendous job of avoiding turnovers all season. Any turnovers in this game could be a big swing for one team or the other. And obviously McCaffrey will be a huge key in the game. He's a threat in many aspects, but I'm most concerned about his ability to break big plays in the passing game (his match up with Iowa's linebackers is terror-inducing) and in special teams (Iowa's 106th in opponent kick returns and they gave up a touchdown to Maryland's Will Likely, an excellent return man). Michigan State badly wore down Iowa's defense -- as evidenced by the epic 9-minute (!) game-winning drive at the end of the Big Ten Championship Game -- and if Stanford is able to do the same, the fourth quarter could be painful watching for Iowa fans. I'm optimistic that Iowa will be the team making big plays in the fourth quarter this week, though, so I'm going to take Iowa, 31-27.
I expect a very good game, one that figures to be close in the fourth quarter. The three things that I think will be most important are turnovers, special teams, and whether or not Stanford is able to wear down the Iowa defense. Iowa's been excellent at forcing turnovers (and not turning the ball over themselves), while Stanford has done a tremendous job of avoiding turnovers all season. Any turnovers in this game could be a big swing for one team or the other. And obviously McCaffrey will be a huge key in the game. He's a threat in many aspects, but I'm most concerned about his ability to break big plays in the passing game (his match up with Iowa's linebackers is terror-inducing) and in special teams (Iowa's 106th in opponent kick returns and they gave up a touchdown to Maryland's Will Likely, an excellent return man). Michigan State badly wore down Iowa's defense -- as evidenced by the epic 9-minute (!) game-winning drive at the end of the Big Ten Championship Game -- and if Stanford is able to do the same, the fourth quarter could be painful watching for Iowa fans. I'm optimistic that Iowa will be the team making big plays in the fourth quarter this week, though, so I'm going to take Iowa, 31-27.
