When the Stanford players gathered in camp at the beginning of the summer, they set three goals. The first, to win the Pac-12 North, has already been accomplished, and a chance to secure the second awaits on Saturday evening. Standing in the way of the Cardinal as it seeks to win a third conference championship in four years are the USC Trojans.
Prior to Stanford's regular season matchup with the Trojans back in September, I wrote that the annual Stanford-USC game is not only one of the three biggest games on the Stanford schedule each year, but it also serves as an accurate barometer of the Stanford program. This season was no different. After a stunning opening loss to Northwestern and an uninspiring win over what would turn out to be an awful Central Florida team, the Cardinal entered the game against the Trojans as understandable underdogs.
USC hadn't played anyone impressive, but they had outscored Arkansas State and Idaho by a combined score of 114-15, while Stanford hadn't scored its first touchdown until deep into the second game of the season. As I walked into the Coliseum on that September Saturday afternoon, I ran into an ex-Stanford football player who had lived across the hall from me in my freshman dorm. Even though we were both optimistic, we agreed that we wouldn't be surprised by anything that might happen that day.
What happened was that the Stanford offense awakened and produced a 41-31 win. It's hard to imagine this now, but the Cardinal had gone an entire NFL season (sixteen games) without having a running back gain 100 yards, so when Christian McCaffrey ended up with 115, it was more of a relief than anything else. (It would still be weeks before he'd be thought of as a Heisman candidate.)
That game told us that Stanford wasn't nearly as bad as some observers feared, but it was just as important for USC. It was the beginning of one of the more tumultuous four-game stretches in program history. The Trojans lost three out of four games, but that was secondary. After a big 42-14 win over Arizona State the week after Stanford, there was a 17-12 home loss to Washington followed by the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian for reasons which have been widely reported. Clay Helton was installed as the interim head coach, and even though he lost that week to Notre Dame, the team seemed inspired to play for him. They returned the next week to hand third-ranked Utah its first loss, and followed that up with wins over Cal, Arizona, and Colorado before slipping against Oregon. Some fans might've been worried by those two narrow wins over Cal and Colorado, but any concerns were erased when the Trojans ended a three-game losing streak against UCLA by thumping their crosstown rivals last Saturday, 40-21.
Clay Helton's interim tag was removed this week, and his first official game as head coach will be in Saturday's Pac-12 championship game, which is quite the stage on which to make a debut. Helton will do so with a team that's decidedly different from the one Stanford faced in September. The Trojans have embraced the power running game, and they used that to batter UCLA last week, rushing for 235 yards and controlling the clock for a staggering 40:01.
This will be the formula they'll use on Saturday -- heavy running with occasional play action looks to their outstanding receivers. USC always seems to have an all-world wide receiver; this year's version is JuJu Smith-Schuster, a player I've been watching since he was a junior in high school. He shredded the Cardinal secondary in September with eight catches for 153 yards and a touchdown, and even with a broken hand he'll be a threat to do something similar in this game.
But don't worry, Cardinal fans. Stanford will be fine. Look for a solid performance from McCaffrey as he starts another 100-yard game streak, as well as big things from the tight ends over the middle. This could be a breakout game for Dalton Schultz, with something like five catches and a touchdown. I see Stanford winning, 31-24.
For a deeper look at what's going on with USC, I've got Michael Castillo from Reign of Troy. You can also read my answers to his questions over on their site. So without further ado...
We obviously have to discuss Clay Helton. The players seem to be thrilled, which will likely give them a bit of a boost this Saturday. Do you agree with this? Also, how does the fanbase feel? This hire seems like a departure from USC’s usual way of going about things.
Personally, I don't agree with the hire. Not because of anything to do with Helton, but because of the timing and how it was done. USC had an opportunity here to make a big statement with a big hire, as the nation's most appealing job in a year in which big-time openings like Georgia and Miami helped saturate the market. But they rushed to a decision on Helton after beating UCLA, and whether or not Pat Haden wants to deny that had an effect, it feels like it does. If they wait to see if USC wins on Saturday vs. Stanford, Helton would have forced Haden's hand to hire him, as winning the Pac-12 would be a major accomplishment. That would have made turning his back on the coaching search much easier to digest. Instead, Haden makes what appears to be an emotional and easy hire, whether it was or not. The fan base genuinely admires Helton, particularly because he's followed Ed Orgeron's footsteps in doing everything to cater to Average Joe USC fan. The Trojans are pounding the ball on offense like the teams of old, he's wearing cardinal and gold on the sidelines and says all of the right things to rile up fans. He's also an adult, unlike Lane Kiffin or Steve Sarkisian. So while those things are great, it's still another head-scratching USC hire that leaves you wondering why they settled for a double when there were home runs and grand slams out there. Only twice since Howard Jones was hired in 1925 has USC not hired a guy that either played for the Trojans or was an assistant coach. Helton keeps that trend going.
The Trojans are obviously a different team than earlier in the season. What’s changed the most?
In simple terms, they are tougher. But in being tougher, the defense is significantly better outside of the Oregon game, while the offense has struggled mightily. Defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox was embarrassed by Stanford back in September and after the initial calls for his firing, he's righted the ship pretty well. USC has improved up front, which has seen them selling out to stop the run, getting to the quarterback more often, and forcing turnovers. If it wasn't for their strong play in the second half of the year, Helton probably doesn't get the job. That's because the offense, which has reverted to a more traditional power run game, looks to lack the additional gears it had at the start of the season under Sarkisian. They've scored just three offensive touchdowns in each of the last three games, including a dismal outing against Oregon. Injuries to literally every wide receiver haven't helped the passing game, along with inconsistencies from Cody Kessler. So long story short, this is very much 2013 USC in that they have a stout defense and a vanilla offense with several playmakers.
With Cody Kessler’s career coming to a close, where does he rank among USC’s recent quarterbacks? If they win on Saturday and then win the Rose Bowl, would that elevate him into the discussion of USC’s great quarterbacks?
Currently, Kessler's reputation probably falls in line with that of Rob Johnson from the early 1990s. He's a guy with a ton of records but is ultimately a magnet for criticism because his numbers haven't resulted in anything but a couple of mid-tier bowl wins. Beating Stanford for the third time and going to the Rose Bowl would be huge for him, as he said before the year he didn't want to be labeled as just an eight-win quarterback for the rest of his life. Doing so would shed a lot of that cloud hanging over him, but I'm not sure he climbs the ladder of great USC quarterbacks. At the end of the day, Kessler is a very capable game manager type quarterback much like Kevin Hogan is, or John David Booty was. He's not flashy and he'll never be as dynamic or impressive as Carson Palmer or Matt Leinart, so he'll always be defined by his win-loss record, even if that's unfair.
What are USC’s biggest injury concerns heading into Saturday? Which ones do you think will have an affect on the game?
What concerns you most about USC’s defense as they matchup against Stanford’s offense?
Pretty much the aforementioned linebacker depth. Helton's defensive agenda is to do everything you can to stop the run. So look for Wilcox to stack the box and try to sell out to stop Christian McCaffrey. In turn, that could open holes for Hogan to target those big guys downfield with linebackers in coverage. USC dared Vernon Adams to beat them two weeks ago and got embarrassed. Last week, they switched to man coverage and played press on UCLA's receivers, which gave Josh Rosen fits. If they do that again, it'll be interesting to see if they can limit the Stanford passing game, while simultaneously prioritizing McCaffrey. If that somehow works, it's a huge subplot win for the Trojans. One thing Helton pointed out on his conference call this week was that against the Bruins, USC adopted a 1-on-1 matchup plan much like you'd see in basketball where each defender was responsible for one specific man. He said after seeing how the matchups worked or didn't work in the first game against Stanford, it'll help him and Wilcox come up with a plan for pairing guys like Iman Marshall with Devon Cajuste, etc.
What advantages do you see for the USC offense against Stanford’s defense?
Since Helton took over, USC has gone all in on the running game, which is starting to really click. Given that Stanford has struggled against the run at times, that appears to be one area where the Trojans can really build some momentum. Justin Davis has rushed for 271 yards in the last two games, while Ronald Jones just broke the freshman rushing record. Tre Madden looks to finally be healthy too. So if they can get those guys to gel as a cohesive backfield like they were last week when they ran the ball 59 times, that will eat up clock and take pressure off of Cody Kessler. It could also open up the playaction pass over the top and slow down the pass rush. USC has struggled in pass protection all season, and when you're down to your fourth-string center, that's obviously a concern that is blown up even more. Remember Cyrus Hobbi in 2012? That's every Trojan fan's biggest fear. Nico Falah played really well last week however, especially as a run blocker.
What’s your prediction for the game? I need a final score and a brief explanation of how we get there.
While Stanford's offense is high-flying and capable of repeating the 41-point outburst they had in September, I can't help but think this game will be yet another grind-it-out USC-Stanford game that we've seen so many times the past few years. The Trojans look fully content with playing power football and slowing things down, and that could shorten the game possession wise. So it comes down to which team can finish off their drives. Considering that USC has only scored more than four offensive touchdowns in a game once since Idaho in Week 2 (I'm not counting a pair of 4-yard drives vs. ASU and Utah after turnovers), I trust Stanford to get the job done with more regularity. It'll be close and the Trojans definitely have a chance to win this one, but until I see USC play a complete game on both sides of the ball for anything close to 60 minutes, I just can't call it a win for Clay Helton. Cardinal win 27-21.
