In the spring of 2012, the last time David Shaw had a quarterback to replace, Brett Nottingham and Josh Nunes were the only real candidates for the job. After three years of watching the greatest quarterback in Stanford history, the fanbase was understandably nervous about what would come next.
It's important to remember that both Nottingham and Nunes had been highly touted recruits. Nunes was a senior and a four-star prospect who had signed with the Cardinal in 2009, and Nottingham, a junior, had arrived in 2010 with four stars of his own. Sure, there'd be a step down from Andrew Luck, but with two-time thousand-yard rusher Stepfan Taylor returning and a typically strong offensive line, there wasn't a great deal of concern, just curiosity.
Most fans were pulling for Nottingham, figuring that it made more sense to choose the younger quarterback, but Nunes was eventually named the starter during the week before opening day. (We know what happened next -- although Nunes had some spectacular games, his inconsistency allowed for the mid-season emergence of Kevin Hogan, who would eventually lead the Cardinal to three Rose Bowls and carve himself a place on Stanford's Mt. Rushmore of quarterbacks.)
If all of this sounds familiar, it's because the same thing is happening in Palo Alto right now. Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst stood dutifully on the sidelines during Hogan's historic career, always knowing that they'd eventually battle to take his place. Although Shaw always said the two were even, and every depth chart released last season listed them both as the number two quarterbacks, the games told a different story. Chryst was always the first man off the bench for mop-up duty, and while his 5 for 9 passing totals don't give him much experience, Burns was never allowed to throw the ball. His action was limited to handing the ball off and rushing four times himself. (Burns did complete one pass for thirteen yards as the third-string QB in 2014, during Chryst's redshirt season.)
All of that led me -- and others -- to believe that Keller Chryst was the next in line. In fact, I wrote multiple times that Ryan Burns would never take a meaningful snap at Stanford. Well, I was wrong. Burns will be the starting quarterback in the season opener against Kansas State.
So what does this mean? At this point it's hard to know. Shaw's announcement was about as noncommittal as such an announcement could be: "We made a decision on the quarterback. Ryan Burns will start and play a good chunk of the game. Keller Chryst will play as well, in spot play, but he'll also have a few series at quarterback, so we're ready to play both guys and try to win a game."
He went on to explain that neither player had distinguished himself much over the course of spring, summer, and fall, but that Burns seemed to have pushed marginally ahead in the evaluation metrics the staff uses. It certainly wasn't a ringing endorsement, but it fits what we've heard from Shaw for quite some time. At no point was he in a hurry to make a choice, and it certainly didn't matter to him which player won the job. Fans tend to root for the younger player, just as they rooted for Nottingham over Nunes years ago, with the idea that with all things equal, the younger quarterback (Chryst) would use the experience gained this year to be even better in the future. I'm certainly guilty of this line of thinking myself, but when I spoke with Shaw about that theory as he was searching for Luck's replacement four years ago, he explained that a head coach couldn't afford to think that way. He had a responsibility to the locker room to play the best player at every position, regardless of class. How could he explain to senior Michael Rector, in this instance, that he was choosing a younger quarterback in order to build for a future Rector wouldn't be part of?
But here's how things are different from 2012. Back then Nunes won the job and Nottingham picked up the clipboard as the clear backup. This time, however, Shaw has essentially pushed the quarterback competition onto the stage for all to see. Regardless of what happens next Saturday, it will take less than two minutes for a reporter to ask Shaw to evaluate the relative performances of his two quarterbacks. Twitter will be ablaze with comparisons throughout the game. The stands will buzz with anticipation each time a different quarterback sprints in from the sideline. I suppose it's possible that this will create a distraction for the rest of the offense, as they'll surely be asked to weigh in on the issue as well, but a greater purpose will be served. Fairly quickly, whether it's next Saturday or in the Saturdays to come, we'll see it. In 2012 we didn't have to wait for Shaw to tell us that Hogan had stolen Nunes's job; we already knew.
The silver lining in all this, is that the Cardinal is deeper at the quarterback position than at any time in recent memory -- perhaps ever. If we accept that this is the most important position on the field, we have to agree that Stanford has been living dangerously. Over the past seven seasons with Luck and Hogan, there has been no strong backup, but those services were never needed. Take a look at the yardage totals from the starters and the backups during the Luck/Hogan Era:
|
Year |
Starters |
Backups |
|
2009 |
2575 |
118 |
|
2010 |
3338 |
25 |
|
2011 |
3517 |
93 |
|
2012 |
2739* |
29 |
|
2013 |
2630 |
141 |
|
2014 |
2792 |
196 |
|
2015 |
2867 |
59 |
* Totals for Nunes and Hogan.
Almost all of those backup yards came in games that had long been decided. What would have happened if a starter had been lost for significant time? Only once during that stretch did a backup get a start -- Tavita Pritchard in the 2009 Sun Bowl. Pritchard, the current quarterback coach, will live forever in Stanford lore, but not for his performance on that day. He was 8 for 19 for just 117 yards and two interceptions in a narrow Stanford loss. Not his finest hour.
Should injury strike this season, Shaw will have a viable option on the bench. More than that, the pipeline behind these two primary signal callers is richer than ever. Freshman K.J. Costello was one of the most highly-recruited prep quarterbacks in the nation when he signed with the Cardinal this past spring, and Shaw already has a commitment from Davis Mills, a five-star recruit and, by some estimates, the top prep passer in the nation.
When Andrew Luck graduated and went on the NFL, most observers worried about the pressures his eventual successor would feel as he attempted to live up to that standard. Four years later, we're hearing the same things with respect to Hogan's replacement, but perhaps it's time to look at things differently. These young men did not choose Stanford capriciously. Kevin Hogan arrived knowing he'd be replacing Andrew Luck, and he rose to that challenge. Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst made similar decisions, knowing that nothing less than greatness would be expected from them. This is how champions think. While others have chosen easier paths, these young men have embraced the challenge of becoming the starting quarterback at Stanford University.
We cannot be sure what the future will hold, but one thing is certain. There is no school in America that wouldn't trade its quarterback situation with Stanford's. Without question, this is Quarterback U.
