Imagine a young couple recently graduated from UCLA. It's the fall of 2008, and the wife is expecting the couple's first child. On the morning of October 18th, as they are preparing to head to the Rose Bowl to watch their Bruins take on a mediocre team from Stanford, the husband and wife -- we'll call them Joe and Betty -- are going about their game day preparations (stocking the cooler, choosing their powder blue jerseys, painting each other's faces with love) when Betty feels her first contraction. She knows what's coming, but she also knows that she and Joe haven't missed a Bruin home game in six years, not since that day when Joe had dropped to his knee and proposed to her in the middle of the Rose Bowl's Tunnel 8 during their senior year. The tears that begin to stream down her face and bead up on the grease paint are not just tears of joy for what's to come, but tears of sadness for a streak she knows is coming to an end.
Hours later, as Betty fights through the final stages of labor, Joe sits at her bedside and the couple holds hands while staring at a television that had been wheeled into the delivery room at their insistence. It isn't clear whether the tense game or the strenuous labor has been more difficult for Betty, but the gold U under her right eye and the gold C under her left still sparkle. The blue L and A on Joe's cheeks complete the scene, and even though their Bruins trail 20-16 in the final minute, Joe and Betty Bruin are nothing but hopeful on this most hopeful day.
With sixteen seconds left on the clock, both Betty and UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft have one more push. Craft rolls out to his right and lofts a pass towards the end zone just as Betty gives birth to her child. The doctor lifts the baby boy from the table and gently places him in Joe's arms just as Craft's pass settles into the mitts of tight end Cory Harkey in the corner of the end zone to clinch a 23-20 UCLA win. Betty and her baby boy cry out at the same time. As the seconds wind down and the game ends, a new family's life begins.
Kevin grew up as all children do, learning to walk, learning to ride a bicycle, and heading off to kindergarten. Each of this milestones are marked with celebration, but not once was Kevin able to celebrate a UCLA win over Stanford.
Stanford has beaten UCLA in each of Kevin’s seven years, including twice in 2014, giving the Cardinal an eight-game winning streak over the Bruins. As difficult as that is for Bruins’ fans to digest, it gets even worse. While there were some close games during the first half of the streak, the last four matchups have been romps for the Cardinal. Here’s a mind-blowing stat that speaks to how tilted things have been – the UCLA defense hasn’t recorded a sack of a Cardinal quarterback in four years.
The most painful of the recent losses must be the 2014 game in Pasadena when a win would’ve put the Bruins into the conference championship game. The underdog Cardinal dismantled a confident UCLA team by scoring touchdowns on five consecutive possessions that day, and the Bruins emerged from the game wondering if they would ever be physical enough to match up with their rivals from the North. I didn’t see him, but my guess is that young Kevin left the Rose Bowl that afternoon in tears.
If there’s a chance that the Curse of Kevin will ever be broken, this could be the year. The Bruins began their season with a narrow overtime loss at Texas A&M, a game they were lucky to push to overtime but unlucky to have lost once they got there, then rebounded with a comfortable victory over UNLV and a sweaty road win over BYU.
That win over BYU has been described as Stanford-like, a statement which speaks to the team’s progress but also admits their envy. The Bruins controlled time of possession and held the Cougars to just 23 yards rushing, which seems like something the Cardinal would do, but the Bruins only ran for 50 yards themselves, so the transformation is far from complete. (BYU, by the way, seems like a good measuring stick. In what could be an attempt to apply for conference membership, they opened with three straight Pac-12 opponents, beating Arizona by two points, losing to Utah by one, and then UCLA by three. They ran for 213 yards against Arizona and 143 against Utah, so it could be that the Bruins are doing something special against the run.)
The obvious question, though, is this: Can that improved Bruin defense stop Christian McCaffrey? As great as McCaffrey was all season, it could be argued that his best performance came against the Bruins. All he did that night was score four touchdowns while running for a school-record 243 yards as the Cardinal crushed the Bruins on national television, 56-35.
I don’t think anyone believes McCaffrey won’t be effective – he’s tallied an impressive eight straight games with 200+ all-purpose yards – so the game will likely be decided by how quarterback Ryan Burns fares in his first road start. He’s been effective managing games against Kansas State and USC, but it remains to be seen how he’ll respond when asked to win a game on his own. If UCLA can somehow limit McCaffrey and force the Stanford offense to rely on third down conversions by Burns, they’ll have a chance.
The other matchup to watch on Saturday will be the prolific Josh Rosen against the Stanford defense. Rosen has been consistent, if not spectacular, this season. His 343 yard performance against A&M was marred by three interceptions, and his touchdown to interception ratio is a pedestrian 4:4. Rosen has all the physical tools to dissect any defense he sees, but I think the Cardinal will make things difficult for him. Solomon Thomas will be chasing him around all night, and Harrison Phillips is expected to return from injury, allowing a deeper rotation to keep the defensive line fresh. If Rosen is pressured, that will only make things easier for what’s already the strength of the Stanford defense, the defensive backs. I think that combination will lead to two interceptions, and the Cardinal will keep Kevin crying for another year with a 27-13 win.
Obviously I could be wrong about all this. I have to admit that the recent history in this series makes it difficult for me to be completely objective. Just like the villagers who had stopped listening to the boy by the time the wolf finally came around, I have trouble finding any fear when I see the Bruins on the schedule. So for a view from the other side, I reached out to that famous taco lover and rocker of cool tunes, by boy Mike Regaled from GoJoeBruin.com. He was good enough to answer my questions about the Bruins, and gracious enough to invite me to do a guest spot on his podcast, the What's Bruin Show. (You can listen here.) Anyway, here's Mike...
GMC:
How much does Stanford’s current winning streak over the Bruins weigh on UCLA fans? How important would a win on Saturday be, in terms of the overall psyche, not the standings?
Go Joe Bruin:
How would you describe Josh Rosen’s development over the past year? Has he grown into a team leader, or is he still too young for that responsibility?
Rosen is a very vocal person. He is a natural leader which helped him have success in his freshman year. Now that he has a season under his belt, it is time to take the next step. What has UCLA fans worried is that he hasn't looked as sharp in the first three games of this season. Though he has showed progress. He needs to have a dominant game to prove he is an elite quarterback he know he can be.
The Bruin offense has been skewed heavily towards the pass. Is that a problem, or just a function of the talent on hand? Who are the main weapons on offense?
This offense has made a lot of changes since the end of last season. New OC Kennedy Polamalu has implemented some power elements which includes fullbacks, tight ends and slowing the pace. UCLA has three good running backs in Soso Jamabo, Nate Starks and Bolu Olorunfunmi, but they have to do better than 50 total rushing yards against BYU. UCLA's top three receivers are gone from last year, but that doesn't mean they don't have playmakers. Against BYU, 12 Bruins caught a pass from Rosen as he threw for 307 yards. Let's hope he can keep it up.
The Bruin defense has been pushed around by the Cardinal over the past several years, and Jim Mora has always cited a need to get more physical. Where are they in that process? Will they be able to limit Christian McCaffrey and the rest of the Stanford running game?
Because the Bruins had such an unimpressive rush defense last year, DC Tom Bradley made tweaks to his squad. This meant bringing more guys to the line and using a 4-3 (though they have also heavily used the nickel). It was not very impressive in the first two games but all of a sudden the defense came to life against BYU. They held the Cougars to 23 total rushing yards and gave BYU QB Taysom Hill his lowest ever rushing output for a game: -7 yards. Hopefully they can continue this into Saturday and try to slow down McCaffrey, because they will not stop him.
Who are the stars we should watch for on the defensive side of the ball?
If you could choose a win over Stanford or a win over USC this year – but not both – which would you choose and why?
It depends on if it affects UCLA's chances to win the South Division and get back to the Championship Game. If UCLA could get a title shot, Bruin fans will ultimately not care who they lose to. But if I had to choose, I would want the Bruins to beat Stanford, a ranked team. A loss to USC will not matter if UCLA is headed to the PAC-12 Championship Game.
What’s your prediction for Saturday’s game? Give me a score and an explanation.
I'm going weird on this one. In a defensive battle, UCLA scores late and converts two points for a 15-14 victory.
