Blogging With the Enemy: USC Trojans

It's hard to imagine that the USC Trojans have become one of Stanford's biggest rivals. Not surprisingly, the Trojans boast the best record (by far) against the Cardinal of all the Pac-12 teams (see chart below), thanks in part to a three decade stretch from 1958-1990 that saw Stanford win only three times. 

Opponent	vs. Stanford	Win Percentage
USC	60-31-3	.654
Arizona State	17-13	.567
Utah	4-3	.571
UCLA	45-39-3	.534
Washington	41-41-4	.500
Arizona	14-15	.483
Cal	46-61-11	.436
Oregon	32-46-1	.411
Washington State	25-40-1	.386
Colorado	3-6	.333
Oregon State	25-54-3	.323

But things have been different lately. Since the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, the Cardinal has enjoyed a fair amount of success against the Men of Troy, including two of the most important wins in the history of the program, the Greatest Upset Ever in 2007, and the 55-21 WYD? game two years after that. In the nine years of the Harbaugh/Shaw Era, Stanford owns a 7-3 record against the Trojans, including two wins last season, 41-31 in September, and 41-22 in the Pac-12 Championship Game in December.

If you look deeper into the recent history of the series, however, you see that last season was a complete aberration. The Cardinal won comfortably in both games in 2015, but the margins of victory in the previous five games between the two teams were 3, 3, 7, 8 (in triple overtime), and 2. No game on Stanford's schedule has provided such consistent drama, and no game, except for maybe the annual tilts with Oregon and Notre Dame (sorry, Cal, but Big Game has lost its luster) carries such anticipation.

Unlike with the Ducks and the Irish, things with the Trojans have felt personal for the past decade. One of the first things Jim Harbaugh did when he arrived was to go after Pete Carroll and the Trojans, who were then the premiere program in the nation. He got under Carroll's skin, first by announcing at Pac-12 Media Day that USC was one of the best teams in college football history, something no coach wants to hear, and then publicly and privately speculating that Carroll would soon leave for the NFL.

His comments were calculated, designed to get his team's attention. If he was willing to poke the bear, surely he believed in his players. When he brought a team that was a 42-point underdog into the Coliseum and beat the top ranked Trojans in his first try, he suddenly had believers. Two years later when he famously went for two with a 48-21 fourth quarter lead, just to "put fifty on those motherfuckers," and then responded to Carroll's postgame confusion by asking "What's your deal?" a rivalry was born.

No loss was more painful than the Cardinal's 20-17 defeat in 2013, and the delirious Coliseum crowd added salt to the wounds by rushing the field in celebration, essentially acknowledging that yes, this game meant something to them as well.

So while Stanford fans were once fond of crowing that USC actually stood for Under Stanford Control, the reality is that before 2015, every single game between these two schools could easily have gone the other way. There have been last second field goals for both sides, an epic triple overtime affair, offensive shootouts, and defensive struggles. This series has given us everything the sport of college football has to offer, and I can't wait to watch the next chapter unfold on Saturday night.

Personally, I don't think the Trojan defense will be able to contain the Stanford offense, and I expect the Cardinal to pull away to a 34-17 win. For another point of view, however, I reached out to Alicia de Artola from the USC website, Reign of Troy, and she was kind enough to answer my questions about the Trojans. (You can read my responses to her questions over at their site.)

GMC:
I know Clay Helton's still getting comfortable in the job, but how has he been as the leader of the USC program? Is the program any different, for better or worse, than under previous regimes?

 

Reign of Troy:
It's been a mixed bag. Helton is beloved by the players and his "Faith, Family, Football" mantra has really resonated with them. He is a great man to have leading the program and is very well liked in a personal sense.

 

Of course, it hasn't all been smooth sailing. His handling of suspensions has been criticized, from failing to act quickly on Don Hill and allowing him to travel to Texas while he was implicated in the Osa Masina sexual assault allegation to having two players ejected in consecutive games to start the season -- both of whom were given minimum punishments.

 

It's too early to say the program is better or worse considering the last two coaches were fired midseason, but things aren't exactly solid right now.

GMC:
After being routed by the defending champions and then routing Utah State, what do we really know for sure about the Trojans?

 

Reign of Troy:
Very little for certain. Alabama has embarrassed better teams than USC while Utah State has proven to be more trouble for other outfits. One person could argue that the only difference between the two score lines was talent. Alabama matched USC's talent and bested it easily because that talent is not supported by a coherent system to guide them. Utah State, meanwhile, was outmatched by USC's talent and was bested easily. They could say that the Trojan offensive line, a supposed strength, looked weak against both levels of opposition. That the offense looked without identity in both games. That the defense is one big play away from breaking. That the difference between the two games was momentum and that Alabama exposed USC's glass jaw, taking them down with one swing, while Utah State never got their shot in.

 

Another person could just as validly argue that Alabama played up for USC because it was such a marquee match up and Lane Kiffin used to opportunity to pile on his former program, producing a dramatic scoreline which probably wouldn't have been so big if not for the personal connections. That the Trojans were actually in control of the game well into the second quarter. That person could say that the Trojans had a center tear his ACL and MCL on the second drive and continue to play on that injury well into the second half. That their starting left tackle went out injured as well and was replaced by another injured player. That offensive line concerns are a reflection of misfortune, be it injury or ejection, and USC simply needs time to settle in. That the Trojan defense has looked stout in both contests, the second one was just a more fair reflection of their performance. That USC's playmakers won't face anyone quite as capable as Alabama's defenders. That said playmakers gave a more true showing of their ability facing an underrated Utah State defense, one consistently ranked among the top units in advanced stats over the past few years.

 

Which account is correct? It's probably somewhere in between, but the fact remains it's hard to gauge where USC's level truly is.

GMC:
Last year I wrote that the USC game has served as a barometer for Stanford over the past five years. The Cardinal has always entered this game with questions, and they've always been answered by game's end, one way or the other. What has this game meant for USC in recent years? What does it mean this week?

 

Reign of Troy:
Funnily enough, for USC the answers that have emerged from Stanford games in year's past have all felt like a mirage. In 2013, USC upset Stanford at the Coliseum, a win that was supposed to legitimize Ed Orgeron's candidacy to become the full-time head coach and signal the rebirth of the Trojans. Instead, they were spanked by UCLA two weeks later. In 2014, the Trojans went up north and pulled out a tough victory. It was supposed to be a signature win for Steve Sarkisian. Another "USC is back" kind of game. The next week USC was embarrassed by Boston College.

 

Still, last year's two contests did set a pretty accurate barometer for USC's level. The Trojans dominated the early goings of the first match up, then were completely shut down by the Cardinal in the second half. That kind of inconsistency would be a staple of the remainder of USC's season -- things would either go extremely well or terribly bad and the flip could switch at any moment. The second match up exposed the deficiencies of the Trojan coaching staff, as Justin Wilcox's efforts to contain Christian McCaffrey proved laughable.

 

As for this week, it goes back to the previous question: What is USC's true level? Stanford is a Top 10 team, but they're not Alabama. If the Trojans are competitive, it'll be a point in the "Alabama was just Alabama" column and USC's quest for the Pac-12 South title will seem more legitimate. If the Cardinal completely outmatch USC, then it'll confirm that the Trojans' problems are real and a rout over a G5 school a bandaid on a bullet wound.

GMC:
What's going on at quarterback? How good is Max Browne? How much of Sam Darnold can we expect to see? Are fans happy with the current state of the position?

 

Reign of Troy:
Max Browne is a quarterback with two career starts under his belt and an inconsistent offensive line ahead of him. It would have been nice for him to play at a higher level against Utah State, but he's definitely not as bad as the offense appeared against Alabama. He can make all the throws, but confidence, or lack thereof, may be his biggest obstacle if the line can't settle down.

 

I would wager that Darnold's use will follow the plan set against Utah State, rather than how he was used in the opener. At the Coliseum, Darnold twice came into the game as soon as USC got inside the 15-yard line. That wasn't the case versus Alabama -- because USC never got close to sniffing the 15. As a result, Helton threw him in for a drive during the third quarter, likely hoping that a change of pace might spark the struggling offense.

 

If things get bad enough for Helton to try that again, it might be the last gasp for Browne. Instead, expect USC's ability to get close to the goal line to dictate how often you see Darnold.

GMC:
We know all about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Who else should we worry about on offense?

 

Reign of Troy:
Darreus Rogers is actually leading the Trojans in receiving after two games and has emerged as a favorite target for Max Browne. He has great body control and is strong enough to fight for yardage, but he's also prone to drops and mental mistakes.

 

Ronald Jones II has bruised ribs, so he may be somewhat limited, but he's USC's home run hitter at running back. It's not hyperbole that some have called him the most exciting running back at USC since Reggie Bush -- he's that explosive. But the line needs to give him a chance to get into the second level.

GMC:
How about the USC defense? Who are the stars on that side of the ball and how will they attack the Stanford offense?

 

Most college football fans know of Adoree' Jackson, who has had a stellar start to his junior campaign in every aspect.

 

Middle linebacker Cameron Smith is back from last year's season-ending knee injury and looks every bit the player he was before the injury and more. He's leading the Pac-12 in tackling right now.

 

USC's defense is a more aggressive unit under Clancy Pendergast, who deploys a simplified scheme aimed at making reads as easy as possible to increase reaction time. Outside linebackers Porter Gustin and Uchenna Nwosu will look to get in the backfield quickly while USC's defensive backs will play a lot of man-to-man, a high risk, high reward strategy that depends on making the quarterback uncomfortable.

 

One man to watch is Leon McQuay III. A former five-star safety, McQuay has been transformed as a senior in USC's nickel spot. He has been an asset close to the line of scrimmage sniffing out horizontal plays, but he also has the coverage chops to get back and nab an interception as he did against Utah State.

GMC:
Which of these two scenarios would you prefer?
A. USC beats UCLA and Notre Dame twenty years in a row, but never goes to the Rose Bowl or playoffs. 
B. USC wins five Rose Bowls, a national championship, and a Heisman in the next ten years, but loses to UCLA on last second fifty-yard field goals in each of those ten years. 

 

Reign of Troy:
I would take the trophies. Rivalries are fun, and losing them can be devastating. But trophies cure all ills. UCLA and ND can have all the moral victories if the Trojans get to add to their trophy case.

GMC:
What's your prediction for this Saturday? Give me a final score and your thoughts on how it will play out. 

 

Reign of Troy:
I don't trust USC's offensive line right now. So I cannot bring myself to pick the Trojans.

 

Before the season I did just that, against my better judgment, in Reign of Troy's preseason predictions. Having seen two games, minor concerns I had during the offseason have become major ones -- questions about the offensive line and coaching in general have grown into full blown dismay.

 

Still, I think USC will put up a fight for a half, similar to what they did against Alabama. The Trojan defense under Pendergast can be great and they will keep it close for awhile. Eventually though, the defense will slip up or simply be ground down and nothing about the Trojan offense thus far suggests to me that they will give the defense a fighting chance.

 

USC will go into the half clinging to a 10-7 lead, but the Cardinal will win 24-10.