Blogging with the Enemy: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Any way you look at it, Stanford and Notre Dame have been two of the marquee programs in the nation over the past several years, and their annual matchup has not only been much anticipated, it also sent ripples throughout college football.

 

Even though Stanford has won four of the past six games in the series, those half dozen contests have been as dramatic as any the Cardinal has played. Aside from a 23-point Stanford win over an unranked Irish squad in South Bend in 2010, the past five games have been tight battles between ranked teams with the hosts winning each time. 

2010: #16 Stanford over Notre Dame, 37-14
2011: #4 Stanford over #22 Notre Dame, 28-14
2012: #7 Notre Dame over #17 Stanford, 20-13 (OT)
2013: #8 Stanford over #25 Notre Dame, 27-20
2014: #9 Notre Dame over #14 Stanford, 17-14
2015: #13 Stanford over #4 Notre Dame, 38-36

These games have been high drama. There was the 2011 game at Stanford, when Manti Te'o met Lennay Kekua, the controversial overtime win for the Irish in South Bend in 2012, another late win for Notre Dame in 2014, and last year's last-second Stanford win on the strength of Conrad Ukropina's game-winning field goal. Not only were these games dramatic, they impacted the national championship picture as well. After surviving that scare in 2012, the undefeated Irish won seven more games and earned a trip to the BCS Championship game, but last season their loss to the Cardinal ended their title hopes.

The stakes aren't quite as high this time around. For the first time since 2009, both teams enter the game unranked. The Cardinal's struggles are all too familiar to Stanford fans. After allowing 44 and 42 points to the two Washington schools, Stanford has fallen to 3-2 and gone from Pac-12 favorites to the bottom half of the conference.

But the sky is also falling in South Bend. The Irish began the season just as highly regarded as the Cardinal, but they've struggled over the first half of the season and currently sit at 2-4 with losses to Texas, Michigan State, Duke (yes, Duke), and North Carolina State. An optimistic Notre Dame fan would quickly explain away the Texas loss, a double-overtime nail biter that obviously could've gone either way, and last week's 10-3 loss which probably had more to do with Hurricane Matthew than N.C. State. More problematic are losses to Michigan State, a team which hasn't won since that victory over the Irish four weeks ago, and Duke, a 3-3 team with losses to Virginia and Northwestern.

For the sake of analysis, let's pretend the hurricane game never happened. In Notre Dame's five other games, the offense has led the way. Discounting the ten points scored in overtime against Texas, the Irish have averaged a gaudy 37.8 points per game. (For comparison's sake, the Cardinal is at just under 20 points a game and has scored only three offensive touchdowns in its past three games.)

But let's stay focused on Notre Dame for now. Yes, their offense has been impressive, and no player on that side of the ball has been more impressive than quarterback DeShone Kizer, a player some expect to be the top overall pick in next spring's NFL draft. (Here's hoping.) If we again disregard last week's debacle, Kizer hasn't had a bad game all season. He accounted for six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) in the loss to Texas, completed 83.3% of his passes in a win over Nevada, threw for 344 yards against Michigan State, 381 against Duke, and an eye-popping 471 with three touchdowns in a win over Syracuse. Basically, he's Superman.

 

The good news for the Cardinal, however, is that the Irish field only mortal men on the defensive side of the ball. According to Football Outsiders, Notre Dame's overall defense ranks a respectable #32 in the nation, but its run defense is forty-five slots below that at #77. How important is this? Take a look at the rushing yardage allowed and the time of possession of their opponents in their four losses.

 

Opponent	Yards	TOP
Texas	237	27:18
Michigan State	260	37:57
Duke	208	30:35
NC State	157	32:19

 

If the Cardinal running game is going to get well again, the Notre Dame defense appears to be just what the doctor ordered. Christian McCaffrey will be a game-time decision, and even though the typically tight-lipped David Shaw has given no hints as to what that decision might be, I think I'll be surprised if he doesn't play. Bryce Love, meanwhile, looked a bit closer to his normal self in his limited action against Washington State, so the hope is that he'll play a larger role against the Irish.

 

Regardless of who's carrying the ball, the biggest key to the Cardinal running game will be the Stanford offensive line. That group has played poorly in Stanford's two recent losses, paving the way for a total of 90 yards rushing and surrendering more than ten sacks. But in those two games they were facing probably the two best defensive fronts on the Stanford schedule. Things will be easier this week.

 

This is clearly a pivotal point in the Stanford season, and I believe this team will be able to circle the wagons. No team in America can match the character of the Stanford locker room, and I have faith in that character. In the hours following the team's loss to Washington State, reports filtered out to the media about a stirring speech that defensive end Solomon Thomas gave to rally his troops. I predict the Cardinal takes that emotion and builds on it. The offensive line will perform much better than it did the last two weeks, the defense will continue to be solid, and Stanford will come away with a narrow 17-14 win.

 

For a look at an alternative point of view, here's some insight from Reuben Hochstetler from the Irish Sports Talk podcast. Also, go take a listen to their episode previewing Saturday's game, in which they discuss my answers to their questions about the Cardinal.

 

GMC:
What's the current mood of the fan base? What were the expectations coming into the season, and how are folks feeling about Brian Kelly?

 

IST:
The fans are upset and disappointed about the current spiral of the program. During last week's game, there were some #FireBK tweets but there's some of those every year. The majority of the fanbase believes that Brian Kelly can get the program turned around. We've been talking about expectation vs realistic expectation on our podcast and most fans view them as the same and expect Notre Dame to be in contention for the Playoff every year.

 

GMC:
Aside from the hurricane game, DeShone Kizer has been putting up spectacular numbers. Is there anything he can't do? How has he improved since Stanford fans saw him last season?

IST:
DeShone Kizer can make every throw necessary and although his completion percentage has dropped from 62.9% in 2015 to 58.8% I believe his accuracy is better. Too many times this season he's been forced to rally the offense. His passing touchdown to interception ratio has improved from 21–10 to 14–5. Notre Dame has struggled in RedZone scoring under Brian Kelly but in 2016 that's been a drastic improvement in spite of a poor running game. The quick decision making and arm of DeShone deserves a lot of credit for that improvement. However, he does hold onto the ball too long and Pro Football Focus had credited DeShone for 4 of the 8 sacks heading into the NC State game. One more area of concern is missing confidence when running the ball. Too many times he's zig-zagging instead of running downhill for an extra yard.

 

GMC:
Equanimeous St. Brown has a lot more going for him than just the coolest name on the roster. (Stanford fans are looking forward to watching his younger brother, Osiris, next year.) What are his strengths, and how does he impact the passing game?

 

IST:
Equanimeous has emerged as the leading receiver for the Irish by building trust with the quarterback. The ceiling has been high for EQ since he signed his letter of intent, but last year he didn't have a real opportunity because he was backing up Will Fuller. In the Spring EQ was moved from the X (field) receiver position to the W (boundary) and has been very productive. In the Fall there was concern with dropped balls but so far this season (aside from NC State) EQ and the receiver group as a whole has been very dependable. EQ leads the receivers in every category and has scored touchdowns in 4 of the first 6 games. Probably the biggest surprise is yards after catch. Fans were concerned how the passing game would continue without Will Fuller but EQ has accounted for a big part of that production from last year and fans are very disappointed that Osiris won't be joining him.

 

GMC:
What about the running game? How do you expect the Irish to use their ground game on Saturday?

 

IST:
Probably like they have been all year which means they'll run the ball but without much success. Brian Kelly's philosophy is to take what the defense gives you but to also be balanced. The run to pass ratio will be 50–50 but the 2016 OLine has not been able to knock DLine back or open running lanes. Josh Adams was hampered by an injury in Fall Camp and it doesn't appear he's completely healthy, Tarean Folston was primed for a big year in 2015 but went down with a torn ACL and even though he's back and had good reports this Fall he hasn't looked like the same runner. One new face is Dexter Williams, he did play sparingly last year, and is the "one guy [on the team]" Brian Kelly mentioned that plays with heart. Williams is an explosive player but unless the offensive line is able to create lanes it doesn't matter.

 

GMC:
The Stanford offensive line is currently in shambles, but part of that's due to facing two of the best defensive fronts in the Pac-12 over the past two weeks. What can we expect to see from the Notre Dame front seven?

 

IST:
Through the first 4 games, Notre Dame could barely get a hand on the quarterback. They do have 3 sacks on the season now which is embarrassing but the defense as a unit is improving. Defensive coordinator, Brian VanGorder, was fired after the 4th game and although statistically the NC State game was an improvement for the defense there's still many more questions than answers. The defensive front will switch between 3 and 4 down linemen and although you probably won't notice this there will be a lot of different players playing on the defensive side of the ball. One of the points of emphasis after firing the defensive coordinator was getting more guys on the field.

 

GMC:
What would a win mean for Notre Dame this week? What would a loss mean?

 

IST:
A win over Stanford is essential to Notre Dame turning this season around. Each of the losses has been by 1 possession or fewer. They still believe they can win but another loss would crush their confidence and if Stanford wins on Saturday, I'd expect many more losses to come for the Irish. There is enough talent on offense to score 40 points per game and enough talent on defense to hang with each of the remain teams on the schedule.

 

GMC:
Give me your final score and your thoughts on how you expect the game to go.

 

IST:
The Notre Dame players are confident right now, they haven't lost faith in the coaching or themselves. Although Stanford's defense is solid, Notre Dame has the talent at quarterback and receiver to score several touchdowns. Assuming McCaffrey is healthy, I expect Stanford will find some rhythm and put some points on the board against this Irish defense but not enough for the win. Notre Dame get's back on track with a 31–21 victory on a clear and cool midwest evening.