It was impossible to watch last weekend's crushing loss without wondering about what the future might hold for the Stanford Cardinal. Over the past two games the offense has managed just two touchdowns, and were it not for a miracle finish in the Rose Bowl against UCLA, the Cardinal could easily be 2-2.
How bad has the offense been? Ryan Burns ranks tenth in the Pac-12 in passer rating, twelfth in passing yards (two different Colorado quarterbacks have thrown for more yards than Burns's 546), and eleventh in passing touchdowns, and only two quarterbacks have been sacked more than he has. (Cal's Davis Webb is one of them, with twelve sacks to Burns's ten, but he's dropped back 267 times, compared to Burns's 89.)
Stanford fans, how concerned are you about the Stanford offense?
— Go Mighty Card (@GoMightyCard) October 3, 2016
But the competition has been stiff. Heading into the season, facing an opening stretch of Kansas State, USC, UCLA, and Washington, a 3-1 start for the Cardinal would've been more than acceptable. That's exactly where Stanford sits now, and things are about to get better. Much better.
The Washington State Cougars come to town this weekend. Head coach Mike Leach surely smells blood in the water, with Stanford battered and reeling from its worst loss in years, but the Cardinal has won eight straight games over the Cougs. Yes, Washington State just crushed Oregon, 51-33, but they opened the season with a loss to an FCS team (Washington State) and currently sit at 2-2.
Stanford will undoubtedly approach this game with an urgency that will border on desperation, and the result will be a win. Christian McCaffrey should be able to find the wide open spaces that have been closed off in the past two weeks, and Ryan Burns should have time to find receivers down field. All of that should add up to a 27-21 Stanford win, righting the ship and restoring faith to the masses.
But I say that every week, don't I? For a counterpoint, here's my old friend Coug-a-Sutra from the WSU Football Blog. As you might expect, he sees things a bit differently, and he's got a ton of information to back up his opinion. Read on...
GMC:
It’s early in the season, and Washington State’s first four games don’t tell us that much. What do you know for sure about the Cougs at this point?
Coug-A-Sutra:
I think that the Cougar team is a lot like the Trees in that we don’t really know what team will show up week to week. At the start of the year, folks like myself were pretty bullish on the Cougs' prospects for a successful season. I actually penned WSU as Pac-12 North champs in early July (insert laugh track).
Unfortunately, the team got saddled with a bunch of off-field distractions that contributed mightily to the slow start. For instance, [safety] Shalom Luani got involved in a late-night altercation that forced him to miss the Eastern Washington game. Had he played, I am 100% convinced WSU would have walked away with a double digit win.
On the offensive side of the ball, WSU played the first two games of this season as if they had never seen a team rush 3 and drop 8. The result was offensive production that was pretty good with respect to yards, but underwhelming in terms of points. For example, WSU got inside Boise State’s 30 yard line 6 times in their Week 2 game and came up with no points. Think that mattered in a 31-28 loss?
Over the past two games, however, WSU has figured out how to make teams pay whenever they show a run box. And if that trend continues, then WSU will be the premier offensive team in the Pac-12 this year.
So, to answer your question, there’s still a lot we don’t know about the Cougs. But, your readers should know that the team they are playing Saturday could be very, very good—maybe even championship (divisional winner) caliber. Or you could be watching a middling lower-tier bowl team. We’ll see.
GMC:
Washington State has lost eight straight games to the Cardinal. How big a win would this be if the Cougs could pull the upset this weekend?
Coug-A-Sutra:
Symbolically, a win this weekend would be huge because it would mean that WSU would have knocked off the only teams that have won the Pac-12 in successive weeks. And that would be a huge confidence booster for a team that struggled so mightily out of the gate. On a practical level, a win this weekend would be significant because it would put WSU squarely back on the path of being bowl eligible—which seemed like a bit of a reach a few weeks back.
Beyond that, WSU is in the midst of its own murderous four game conference stretch. So, it really is about trying to win one game a week right now.
That said, losing this week would be a season killer for Stanford. So, while the stakes are high for both teams, this game stands as an absolutely “must win” for the Trees.
GMC:
I didn’t watch the WSU-Oregon game, so I assume what I see in the boxscore is some type of joke. It says the Cougars rushed for 280 yards last week. Has Mike Leach left the building? What’s going on with these running backs?
Coug-A-Sutra:
The jury is out about whether the Cougs can sustain their new found ground game against teams with better defensive fronts. But, at this point, WSU’s running game is no joke. WSU features three running backs—Gerard Wicks, Jamal Morrow, and James “Boobie” Williams—that can all bring it. Wicks is a bruiser, Morrow is a classic All-Purpose/Combo back, and Williams is a combination of the two. In the Idaho game, Williams, who is a supremely talented redshirt freshman, went off. But that was against a four or five man box. Last week, all three Cougar running backs went off even when Oregon had 6 or 7 in the box.
So, it will be interesting to see how that group fares against Stanford’s front seven. But at this point, WSU’s running game solidifies the “death by 1,000 cuts” offense that we saw last year. Not only can WSU score points, but they can also do so in a way that keeps the defense off the field. When that happens, WSU is a very, very hard team to beat.
GMC:
David Shaw spoke this week about the development of the Washington State program under Leach, and he pointed the tremendous improvement in both the offensive and defensive lines. Would you agree with that assessment? What’s the current state of those two units?
The offensive line is the strength of the team right now and looks like a group that can hang physically with the likes of Stanford, UCLA, and Washington. At the start of the year, there were a bunch of questions about the left side of the O-Line--since Joe Dahl (who is now with the Lions) and multi-year starter Gunnar Eklund graduated. But those questions have largely been erased, and folks who cover the program think that the two replacements, Andre Dillard and Cody O’Connell, represent an upgrade.
Dillard is a LT who is about 300 lbs and is quick as a cat. O’Connell stands at 6-8, 350 and looks like a kid that should start at Stanford. Meanwhile, the right side of the line is loaded with experience and the Cougs have been running a lot of their running plays off the right side. Senior Center Riley Sorenson is one of the most underrated players in the conference and may be the offense’s MVP.
The defensive line represents a work in progress. Last year, the Cougs benefited a lot from the play of four, experienced seniors: Destiny Vaeao (who is now with the Eagles) and Darryl Paula were both All-Conference guys last year on the interior of the line, and rush linebackers Ivan McLennan and Kache Palacio were exceptional athletes (McLennan was the guy who stripped McCaffrey on the sideline in last year’s game).
This year, WSU is relying on their back-ups and the results have been somewhat uneven. Hercules Mata’afa is the fixture of the defensive front and he’s starting to look like an All-Conference player. Robert Barber has played well at the nose and Daniel Ekuale has also had his moments at the tackle spot. Overall, the Cougars’ defensive front is faster than last year, but lacks depth and is somewhat undersized on the edge. It will be interesting to see how they hold up over four quarters against the Trees. My sense is that they’ll do fine as long as the offense continues to keep them off the field for, say, 32 minutes.
GMC:
So tell me about Luke Falk. The gaudy numbers are still there, but what do you see from him that makes him great? How do you compare him to Connor Holliday?
Falk is a guy who should absolutely terrify Nerd Nation. He’s a gym/film rat who is constantly improving and, much like Kevin Hogan, is a win-first quarterback. Falk's commitment to the film room is important because the quarterback in Mike Leach’s Air Raid is charged with a lion’s share of play calling duties: Leach calls in a run and pass play from the sidelines, but it’s the quarterback’s job to get the team into the proper play. Developing that knowledge and acumen takes time, but Luke has consistently shown himself to be superior in reading defenses and adapting as the game progresses. Moreover, we’re also starting to see Luke throw some of the timing routes that made Halliday so lethal during his abbreviated senior season.
Regarding the comparison between the two, well, Luke is a more polished/mistake-free guy, while Halliday was more of a gun slinger that was more mistake prone. But honestly, it’s a bit hard to compare the two since Falk inherited a much better O-line. In addition, Falk benefited from watching Halliday lead the Air Raid from the sidelines. Connor had to learn on the fly.
GMC:
We already discussed the defensive line, so tell me about the Cougars’ linebackers and secondary. Who are the stars, and how do you expect them to attack the Stanford offense?
Coug-A-Sutra:
The Cougar defense includes several different packages that include different personnel for each. The main guy that you should pay attention to is Shalom Luani. Last year, Luani was an all-conference safety. This year, they’ve moved him around to fit different packages. For instance, he played WIL linebacker at different times in the Boise State and Idaho games, but played the nickel last week against Oregon. Most folks think he’ll stay at the nickel for this week’s match-up against Stanford.
Luani’s replacement in the back at free safety is JC transfer Robert Taylor who teams up with true freshman strong safety Jalen Thompson to form a serviceable back-end. Both looked overwhelmed early but seem to be hitting their stride now.
True sophomore Darrien Molton—who was a freshman All-American last year--will probably be charged with “locking down” (cough! cough!) Michael Rector. Marcellus Pippins is the best cover corner on the other side, but Treshon Broughton seems to be the guy that has the favor of (all world) defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
In terms of the game plan, well, you can probably expect the Cougs to try to do the same thing they did to the Trees last year. Namely, stack the box against the run and have Luani spy on McCaffrey. The goal will be to put Stanford in third and long, limit McCaffrey’s big plays, and make Burns (or Chryst) beat them in the short passing game. In other words, the Cougs will try to limit explosives, and in so doing, hold Stanford to field goals instead of touchdowns.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? How’s the game going to go, and who’s going to be celebrating in the end?
Coug-A-Sutra:
Mike Leach once said that at the start of each week he thinks that the Cougs can beat the NY Giants, but by the end of the week he’s convinced they could lose to Pullman High School. And frankly, that sentiment fits me to a T.
But, when I get beyond my Coug-Couginess, I think that the factors that decided last year’s game will probably determine this weekend’s contest. Consider:
- Stanford held WSU’s offense to field goals on five consecutive trips inside the redzone. If WSU scored touchdowns on two of those drives, that game wasn’t close.
- Kevin Hogan offset a miserable passing day by rushing for 120+ yards, nearly all of which were game changing plays.
- Quenton Meeks had two interceptions—the second of which changed/saved the game for Stanford by halting a late 4th quarter WSU drive that probably would have put the game away.
- Stanford had an average field position of something like the 45 yard line, as WSU was justly terrified about what McCaffrey might do to them in the return game (so we squibbed everything and/or kicked the ball out of bounds).
Anyhow, as we look to this year’s game, it seems noteworthy that Hogan and Meeks won’t be on the field. So, for me, the remaining keys to the game come down to (a) WSU’s ability to score touchdowns in the redzone; and (b) WSU’s special teams play, particularly its ability to not lose field position and/or give up a “freebie” touchdown or two to McCaffrey.
Ultimately, I think that McCaffrey is going to show that he is a one-of-a-kind generational talent in this one. The question for me is whether his highlight reel is going to include two, three, or four breathtaking touchdowns. I am sure he will get two or three—I am just not convinced he’ll get more.
Meanwhile, the Cougs have struggled a bit in red zone execution and have yet to make a field goal this year (Powell is 0 for 4, including a blocked 19 yarder last week against Oregon). Stanford, on the other hand, has yielded just 4 rushing touchdowns this year and is giving up a paltry 12 points a game to teams not named the University of Washington. So, while WSU figures to move the ball up and down the field in this one, a big part of me feels like this one could turn out to be a carbon copy of WSU’s 31-28 Week 2 loss to Boise State.
But at the end of the day, I think the Holder and Meeks injuries are going to be too much for Stanford to overcome. If this were a healthy Stanford group—like the one we saw against USC—then this one goes Stanford’s way, perhaps easily. But when I compare the two offenses and their production, it just seems like the quality and breadth of WSU’s offensive arsenal will be too much for this banged up Stanford group unless they can get out to a really fast start.
So, I’m calling it WSU 34, Stanford 23, with the caveat that virtually nothing would surprise me in this one.