When last we saw Keller Chryst he was lying on the turf in El Paso after suffering a knee injury in the first half of Stanford's Sun Bowl win over North Carolina. Common sense and all initial reports indicated a torn ACL, an injury that would keep Chryst out of action for a year or so and throw Stanford's 2017 quarterback situation into complete chaos. In the first few weeks of the off-season things started to look even more chaotic -- there were reports that senior Ryan Burns, the only other quarterback on the roster with any playing experience, would seek a graduate transfer. It appeared likely that after unprecedented stability at the position for the previous seven years, Stanford would head into 2017 with a freshman and a sophomore as the only scholarship quarterbacks on campus. Not an ideal situation.
But then the clouds began to clear. First, there were whispers that Chryst's recovery might be more rapid than what we had come to expect from similar knee injuries. David Shaw seemed to believe that he'd be ready at some point during this upcoming season, perhaps as early as the second game. Then Burns announced he'd be returning for his fifth year, and it seemed like everything would be okay. Or, at least, there would be options.
Even if none of that had happened -- no knee injury for Chryst, no transfer rumors for Burns -- this would still be the most difficult position to project on the Stanford roster. The men responsible for coaching, evaluating, and making decisions about the Stanford quarterbacks (head coach David Shaw, offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren, and quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard) have a luxury we do not. Those three can make their decisions in a vacuum. They sit in meetings with the four players vying for playing time, they stand and watch as they go through drills, they shuffle them in and out of scrimmages, and they watch film of all of that, seeking video evidence to support what their eyes have already told them. Over the next three weeks, in addition to gauging the health of Chryst, they'll compare these players only to each other and eventually a starter will be anointed. (While we might hope to hear a starter for the season, I don't think that's likely; any announcement from Shaw will likely be specific to Week 1.) [Editor's Note: Since this article's initial publication, Shaw has named Chryst the starter for the season.]
In a sense, the coaches have it easy. The rest of us don't. We still cling to the genius of Andrew Luck and the grittiness of Kevin Hogan (more on him later), and it will be quite a while before we release those ghosts. Bryce Love will have difficulty following Christian McCaffrey, but it won't be the same. There is no more visible position in sports than a football team's starting quarterback. That player's success is certainly celebrated, but his failures are magnified beyond those of any other position on the field.
For proof of this, we need look no further than Hogan's career. He was a revelation when he was elevated to the starting position midway through his sophomore season and led the team to a Pac-12 championship and the program's first Rose Bowl victory in four decades, but our strongest memories are probably from his triumphant fifth-year campaign when he set career highs in most statistical categories and led the team to another Rose Bowl win. What we've conveniently forgotten are the two years in between when Hogan's struggles had many observers calling for a change -- or at least a competition. This is the way it is with quarterbacks.
Chryst was the quarterback that many wanted to see in favor of Hogan. After a disappointing season in 2014 finished in the Foster Farms Bowl, Stanford fans looked to the future and they saw Keller Chryst. That he was still just in high school and hadn't yet signed a Letter of Intent hardly mattered; he was the next great Stanford quarterback. Playing his high school ball across the street at Palo Alto High School, it was widely assumed that Chryst was destined for the Farm. He was the consensus top ranked pro-style quarterback recruit in the nation, but many schools didn't even bother offering him, so strong was the assumption that he was headed to Stanford. (So satisfied with Chryst, the following year the Cardinal didn't even offer the similarly-coveted Josh Rosen, who had publicly named Stanford as his dream school. Chryst and Stanford were meant to be. Here's what I wrote when the marriage finally became official:
The bottom line is this -- this kid can make all the throws right now, and he's only going to get stronger. Once he combines his physical gifts with a knowledge of the Stanford playbook, he'll be a force to be reckoned with throughout the Pac-12. While quarterback Kevin Hogan is entrenched as the starter at least through this season, Chryst will likely be given the chance to compete with Ryan Burns for the starting job once Hogan moves on. Cardinal fans will have to wait a bit before seeing him on the field, but they should still be excited. Very excited.
The problem? It hasn't really been that exciting. Most everyone was stunned when Burns was named the starter last fall, and questions immediately began to swirl about Chryst's development. Those questions then began to extend deeper as some wondered about Stanford's general ability to develop quarterbacks. After Andrew Luck, the Cardinal had welcomed a string of highly-touted quarterback prospects to campus -- Josh Nunes, Brett Nottingham, Ryan Burns, four-star recruits all -- and none had impressed. Now, if Chryst wasn't ready to start, perhaps it was time to add his name to that ignominious list.
Meanwhile, Josh Rosen was thriving at UCLA. He was named the starter in 2015 about five minutes after he enrolled in his first class, and his success was immediate. He debuted with 351 yards and 3 touchdowns against Virginia, finished the season with more than 3,600 yards passing, fielded (and responded to) overtures from Arizona sorority girls, and likely spent more than a little time thinking about where he'd one day put his Heisman Trophy.
Last year USC introduced a quarterback from the same class as Rosen, and just like Rosen the year before, Sam Darnold set the world on fire. He lost his first career start in Week 4 against Utah, but then he led the Trojans to nine straight wins to close the season, passing for at least two touchdowns in each game of that streak, including five scores against Arizona, Cal, and, most memorably, Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Darnold enters this season as one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy.
Which brings us back to Chryst. As has been made abundantly clear, David Shaw places a premium on knowledge of the playbook. It is not always the most talented quarterback who plays; it is always the most prepared quarterback who gets the start. Andrew Luck redshirted behind Tavita Pritchard, and Hogan spent a year and a half waiting for his opportunity, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that Chryst had to serve an apprenticeship as well.
But the early success of quarterbacks like Rosen and Darnold, both younger than Chryst, have caused some to question this theory and question the driving philosophy behind the Stanford offense. As a friend of mine eloquently stated, "If you've built a car that only Andrew Luck can drive, maybe it's not the best car."
This year, I think, we'll have our answer. Chryst has been a full participant in all individual drills thus far, more proof that "[m]odern medicine is just different that it used to be," as Shaw explained this week. Chryst himself has said that he feels like he can do everything, but the coaching is proceeding cautiously. While it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he didn't play against Rice in the season opener on August 26th, all signs point towards the junior being the starting quarterback as soon as he's ready, probably as early as September 9th against USC.
The arm talent has never been a question with Chryst, nor has athleticism (given his knee injury, however, I think we can expect a huge reduction in the number of designed runs called for him), and all reports have indicated that his knowledge of the playbook continued to improve during his rehab. Chryst should be ready, but will this preparation translate into performance? It's strange to say that an offensive system that has produced four Heisman Trophy runners-up, three conference championships, and two Rose Bowl wins in the past eight seasons would need validation, but this is the case for some fans. If Chryst reaches his potential this fall and skillfully directs another dominant Stanford offense, many of the questions swirling around the program's quarterback development process will evaporate. If Chryst struggles, the whispers will only become louder.
Behind Chryst and Burns are two more elite quarterback prospects. Sophomore K.J. Costello was the third-rated quarterback in the Class of 2016, and freshman Davis Mills was the consensus top-rated QB in last year's class. If you're still reading at this point you know that Mills won't figure into any plans for 2017, but Costello will likely be a part of the quarterback competition and could push Chryst a bit. If Chryst isn't ready to play in the opener, I think we'll see Burns get the start there, but don't be surprised if Costello eventually earns the backup job behind Chryst, with Burns falling to number three.
Few things are more intriguing than the immediate and long-term future of the Stanford quarterback. There might not be another school in the country that can match the accumulation of talent that the Cardinal has with Chryst, Costello, and Mills all on the roster, and considering the recent infusion of talented wide receivers and tight ends, there will be no shortage of weapons. Potential, however, has never thrown a single pass or won a single game. It's time for these quarterbacks to perform.
