It's been three years since Stanford and Arizona State last met on the field, and although that 26-10 ASU win was rather forgettable for the Cardinal and a statement game for the Sun Devils, the two teams went in opposite directions in the seasons that followed. Stanford concluded the 2014 season with a win in the Foster Farms Bowl, then won the Rose Bowl the following year and the Sun Bowl in 2016.
The Sun Devils, meanwhile, have faltered. They finished strong in 2014, capping a 10-3 season with a win in the Sun Bowl, but they went 6-7 in 2015 and 5-7 last year, putting coach Todd Graham squarely on the hot seat. Last week's surprising win over the Oregon Ducks may have temporarily saved Graham's job, but the vultures are definitely circling.
Heading into this game, the focus for Stanford football, of course, is the quarterback position. David Shaw wouldn't comment this week on the injury Keller Chryst suffered against UCLA, but all outward signs seemed to indicate a concussion, which would place him the concussion protocol, leaving Ryan Burns and K.J. Costello as the only viable options this week. Based on his performance thus far, Costello would obviously be the preferred option, and while many fans were bothered that Shaw didn't declare him the starter immediately, his choice not to isn't surprising at all. Shaw has never been quick to change quarterbacks midseason, but now he doesn't have to do anything official. Costello can start in place of the injured Chryst without any announcement from Shaw. Should the sophomore continue to have success, Shaw's eventual decision will be that much easier.
So what are we to expect this week? The Arizona State defense has played well against the run, holding Oregon's Royce Freeman under a hundred yards last week in the Sun Devils' surprising win over the Ducks, but I think this weekend will be a different story. Last week we got a look at what a properly appointed Stanford offense can do, and I expect we'll see more of the same on Saturday -- a steady run game punctuated by an occasional lightning strike from Bryce Love or a downfield attack by Costello, and lots of time of possession. That last part will be important, because Arizona State's hope for victory lies in its passing game, led by quarterback Manny Wilkins and his two game-breaking wide receivers, N'Keal Harry and Jalen Harvey. It will be critical for the Cardinal to keep that trio on the sidelines as much as possible, especially considering the first-half suspension of Stanford cornerback Alijah Holder.
My thought is that Stanford will put all that together and come away with a comfortable 37-20 win, but for a look at the other side of the issue, I reached out to Sam Ficarro from the ASU blog, Devils in Detail. Here's his view:
Go Mighty Card:
It’s been two years since Stanford has seen Arizona State. In general, what’s the state of the program? How tenuous is Todd Graham’s hold on the job?
Devils in Detail:
The state of the program is different to what it was two years ago. When these two teams last met, Kirk Herbstreit picked the Sun Devils to go to the College Football Playoffs! The Sun Devils definitely are not making the Playoffs, and the program is in a huge year. Todd Graham is on the hot seat to succeed this season after missing a bowl game last season, and bringing in two new coordinators. The Oregon win last week was massive and has definitely taken the heat off of Graham after a 1-2 non-conference start.
GMC:
Quarterback Manny Wilkins has put up some great numbers thus far, topping 300 yards in three games and throwing for 298 in the other. What are his strengths as a quarterback? In a conference full of stars at the quarterback position, how does Wilkins compare?
Devils:
Manny Wilkins is playing the best football of his career, setting a school-record for pass attempts without an interception (188). Wilkins has really matured this year, and is actually healthy after picking up an injury in Week 5 last season. The injury nagged him the rest of the season and hampered ASU’s offense tremendously. He’s very good at staying in the pocket and going through his reads and has started to build chemistry with his wide receivers. After using his legs a bit too much last season, he’s done a better job picking and choosing when he scrambles and runs.
GMC:
Wide receivers N’Keal Harry and Jalen Harvey combined for over 300 yards receiving last week, and both appear to be big-play receivers. How do the two compare? How do you expect them to fare against Stanford’s secondary?
Devils:
N’Keal Harry is the go-to receiver for the Sun Devils. After receiving fewer targets than expected the first two weeks, Harry has been on a tear the last two weeks with 20 catches, 318 yards, and two touchdowns. The big part of ASU’s passing attack is their use of wide receiver screens. They used those plays to kickstart the offense and then open up the defense with deep passes. Jalen Harvey and Kyle Williams have also been big contributors for the Sun Devils this year. Stanford has the ninth-best pass defense in the Pac-12, and if the Sun Devils can develop a rhythm offensively, they should have success. Stanford probably should avoid leaving Harry 1-on-1, though, as he said that’s “disrespectful” after that’s what Oregon did last week.
GMC:
The Stanford defensive line has struggled at times this season, particularly when rushing the quarterback. What’s the state of the Arizona State offensive line?
Devils:
ASU’s offensive line has struggled this season, but they did well versus Oregon last week. The Sun Devils have allowed 19 sacks so far this season, the most in the Pac-12. The running game has also struggled to get going as they have the second-worst rush offense in the conference averaging just 108.2 yards a game. The running game has continued to struggle despite the depth and talent at the position, and the offensive line will have to perform to stop Stanford’s pass rush and force the Cardinal defense to have to defend both fairly.
GMC:
The Sun Devil defense did a good job limiting Oregon’s rushing attack. Do you expect similar success against Stanford and Bryce Love?
Devils:
Graham has said that he’s not thrilled about having faced Royce Freeman and Bryce Love in consecutive weeks. The way Arizona State stopped Freeman was impressive, and has definitely given the defense confidence that they can stop him. Love is one of the best running backs at breaking tackles, and that has been an Achilles’ heel for the Sun Devils defense in years past. ASU has really improved their tackling under first-year defensive coordinator Phil Bennett and should be able to limit him.
GMC:
Who are the stars on defense that we should watch out for?
Devils:
The stars to watch on defense is the front seven led by linebackers Christian Sam, D.J. Calhoun, and JoJo Wicker. They are the tackling and pass rush leaders for Arizona State and really picked up the load left by Koron Crump, who is out indefinitely with an injury. Arizona State’s secondary is extremely young, and cornerback Chase Lucas was targeted a lot by Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert and he played well. Stanford will look to really exploit the young secondary, who’s had history of conceding big plays in past years, but have really cut down on blown coverages this season.
GMC:
What has to happen for Arizona State to pull of the upset on Saturday?
Devils:
The key for Arizona State is not turning the ball over offensively and stopping Bryce Love. The Sun Devils fumbled it a couple of times versus Texas Tech, but other than that, they have not turned it over. Arizona State needs to get into a rhythm offensively and needs to avoid giving Stanford great field position. Defensively, it’s all about stopping the running game. UCLA had no answer last week despite Stanford only throwing for 148 yards. Whoever starts for the Cardinal at quarterback, ASU needs the Stanford passing game to beat them and not the run game. Getting off to a good start would be good as well as that led to Oregon slinging the ball a lot more than they would’ve liked.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a score and a quick explanation of how we get there.
Devils:
I think Arizona State will win 31-24. ASU has not had success playing Stanford, but this offense is hitting on all cylinders and the defense is confident after limiting Oregon’s offense. If they control the time of possession, don’t turn it over, and stop Love, ASU has a great chance to pick up the road win.
