I'm just going to go ahead and say it, although I know it will cause some to turn away from this site forever. There is no more important opponent on the Stanford schedule than the USC Trojans. Big Game and the rivalry with Cal will always be special in its own way, but it's been roughly a decade since that game has really been big. It will be nice take out the Axe in November and put it back in the trophy case after the Golden Bears are dispatched, but let's be honest: This week is Rivalry Week. Do you doubt me? Let's take a look at what the USC game has given us over the past decade.
2007: Stanford 24, USC 23 -- The Greatest Upset Ever
This being the ten-year anniversary of the game that changed Stanford football forever, there has been no shortage of retrospectives produced over the past week (here's one, here's another, here's another) and they're all worth your while. In a nutshell, Stanford's second-string quarterback, Tavita Pritchard, led his team into the Coliseum to face a USC team in the midst of one of the most successful runs in recent college football history. The Trojans were favored by more than forty points, but the upstart Cardinal stayed into the game until late in the fourth quarter before two ridiculously improbable things happened. First, down by six with minutes to play, Pritchard converted a 4th and 20 with a 20.01 yard pass to wide receiver Richard Sherman; a few plays later, facing 4th and goal from the 10, Pritchard lofted a pass to the Mark Bradford in the corner of the end zone. Bedlam ensues.
4th & 20. 4th & Goal from the 10.
— Stanford Football (@StanfordFball) September 8, 2017
Legendary catches by @RSherman_25 and Mark Bradford shocked the world in 2007. #GoStanford #BeatSC pic.twitter.com/blobKx1ud3
2008: USC 45, Stanford 23
On the surface it looks like a blowout lacking drama, but that's not quite right. Down by 29 points in the closing seconds of the game, Jim Harbaugh sent the field goal unit out onto the field. USC coach Pete Carroll, perhaps bothered by this move, called a timeout to ice the kicker, so Harbaugh changed his mind and sent the offense back out onto the field. Another Stanford back-up quarterback, Alex Loukas, promptly threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to Austin Gunder to close the gap a bit. Did this bother Carroll? "He can do whatever he wants. I don't care." Hmm.
2009: Stanford 55, USC 21 -- What's Your Deal?
The upset in 2007 might've turned the program around internally, providing belief to players and fans who had been downtrodden for so long, but this game changed the national perception of Stanford football. (It would also be the eventual inspiration for this site, but that's another story.) Not only did Stanford destroy the Trojans, there was even more drama between Harbaugh and Carroll. After Harbaugh famously went for two after a touchdown made the score 48-21 midway through the fourth quarter (the attempt failed), there was an interesting confrontation between the two head coaches during the postgame handshake. Clearly irritated by Harbaugh's blatant effort to embarrass the Trojans, Carroll asked him, "What's your deal? Are you okay?" Harbaugh's response: "I'm fine. What's your deal?" After the game Harbaugh defended his two-point conversion attempt by saying that he felt like the team had some momentum at that point, and he wanted to keep it going, but years later we'd learn what we already expected. When he had decided to go for two, he had turned to a player and admitted, "I want to put fifty on these motherfuckers." And you doubt that this is a rivalry?
2010: Stanford 37, USC 35
Coming off what would be its only loss of the season, the Cardinal needed this win, and Harbaugh knew it. Here's what I wrote at the time (or click here for my full recap):
With the ball advanced to the Stanford 45, the outcome already seemed certain. Luck filled in the blanks by completing a pass to Coby Fleener for eleven yards and another to Baldwin for thirteen before handing the ball to Taylor a couple of times to bring things into Whitaker's range. Whitaker's kick climbed into the night as the final seconds spun off the clock, and the game ended just as we knew it would. Stanford 37, USC 35.
As amazing as the finish was, the aftermath was just as interesting. The students, finally back from their long summer vacation and watching their Cardinal in person for the first time, responded to Whitaker's game-winner by rushing the field. Harbaugh parted the sea of humanity and climbed into the stands to see his father, wife, and daughter. The ABC camera crew caught him perched along the bleachers, but he declined their interview request, imploring them instead to "talk to the players." He looked for all the world like a man who'd just coached his team to a Rose Bowl win or a national championship. For all his talk about this being just another game, it clearly wasn't.
Oh, and there was also this:
2011: Stanford 56, USC 48 -- Triple Overtime
We all have regrets in life. When I'm lying on my deathbed fifty years from now, someone will ask if I would've liked to have done anything differently. Without hesitation I'll say, "Instead of watching from my living room, I should've gotten in my car and taken the thirty-minute drive to the Coliseum for Stanford-USC in back in 2011." I can only hope that those won't be my last thoughts. So what was so great about this game? What wasn't great about this game? Read my recap and decide for yourself.
2012: Stanford 21, USC 14
With Andrew Luck having departed to the NFL, this was supposed to be the year that Stanford regressed, the year that USC snapped its three-game losing streak to the Cardinal, but none of that happened. Sophomore Kevin Hogan would lead the Cardinal to a Rose Bowl victory in January, but that wouldn't have been possible were it not for this win -- led by quarterback Josh Nunes. (Click here for the full recap.)
Starting seventy-nine yards away from the goal line, Nunes was terribly efficient on this possession. Yes, he badly underthrew a wideopen Zach Ertz on 2nd and 10 from midfield, but he made up for it on the very next play. Facing a critical 3rd and 10, Nunes was forced out of the pocket and had to scramble to his right, hoping to get the first down himself. There was plenty of open grass in front of him, but the defense collapsed on him quickly, and Nunes was quickly face to face with three Trojan defenders, five yards short of his first down. Nunes doesn't have the running ability of Andrew Luck, but he gave the defenders a quick shake to the right, then sprinted to the left past all three of them for the first down. As his teammates rushed to him to celebrate, Nunes simply pushed them out of the way so he could see the sideline and get the next play call.
How surprising was this? Here's how Shaw responded in his postgame presser: "Shocking, is what it was. Shocking. I would say that if he was sitting right next to me. He's not a runner, but you can't measure heart. It was heart, it was toughness. He broke tackle after tackle. It was just the desire to make plays, the desire to hep his teammates."
Two plays later he hit Ertz with a bullet (well, not quite a bullet) at the fifteen-yard line. Ertz lunged for the end zone and scored to give Stanford its first lead of the game at 21-14. Bedlam in my house. Bedlam.
2013: USC 20, Stanford 17
This was a crushing loss, and not just because of the missed opportunities and questionable strategy that led to the defeat. It also appeared at the time to relegate the Cardinal to a lesser bowl. Here's how I saw it back then:
The only good news I have to report is that all of these frustrations say more about the health of Stanford football than any possible disease. As difficult as it might be to remember, it wasn't long ago that it was Stanford fans who were rushing the field after victories over USC, and not the other way around. Stanford has become a national power, a school whose name is circled on other team's schedules. As fans, we now look at a what should be a 10-2 season as a disappointment. I invite you to hop into a time machine set for 2007 and try to explain that to yourself.
College football teams -- even elite college football teams -- do not win every game. Play calls don't always work out, and quarterbacks sometimes throw interceptions. Great programs rebound from losses like this and return stronger, they honor their great players and replace them with new recruits, they win bowl games regardless of where they are played.
But of course, things worked out. The Cardinal ended up playing in the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 Champions for the second consecutive year.
2014: USC 13, Stanford 10
This is possibly the most perplexing loss in the history of Stanford football. All you need to know about this game can be summed up in one simple sentence: Every Stanford possession reached at least the USC 32-yard line. And still they scored only ten points. I'll provide the link to my recap, but proceed at your own risk. It's like stepping into the Twilight Zone without a flashlight.
2015: Stanford 41, USC 31
Stanford had stumbled in its opener against Northwestern, dooming a season some had thought might lead to a national championship opportunity, and a win the following week against Central Florida had done little to quell the fears of the pessimists, but a win over the Trojans will always do wonders. This game was also notable because it was Christian McCaffrey's first career 100-yard game. The first of many.
2015: Stanford 41, USC 22 -- Pac-12 Championship Game
This was an historic game for McCaffrey, the game that should've clinched his Heisman Trophy, but in the larger scheme it sent Stanford to its third Rose Bowl in four years. As great as that sounds, it could've been even better.
By defeating the USC Trojans, the preeminent program in Pac-12 history and one of the most storied teams in college football, the Cardinal clinched a berth in the Rose Bowl for the third time in four years.
It's certainly tempting to look back on the debacle that was the season opener against Northwestern or to dwell on those two fumbled snaps in the fourth quarter against Oregon. A win in either of those two games would likely have put the Cardinal into the playoffs, but those who fixate on those moments and what might have been had things gone differently, often forget about how easily other games could have swung in the opponents' favor as well. Folks in South Bend are still wishing Conrad Ukropina's last-second field goal had missed its mark, just as Washington State fans are wondering where their season might have ended had Erik Powell made six field goals on Halloween night instead of only five.
This is how college football works. A butterfly flaps its wings in China, and a punter drops a snap on the final play in Ann Arbor. Chaos theory reigns supreme, and no matter which way the pendulum swings -- whether computers or twelve people in a conference room are ranking the teams -- there will always be controversy, there will always be questions, and there will always be teams with broken hearts.
The good news for Stanford is that consolation awaits in the Rose Bowl.
2016: Stanford 27, USC 10
After so many years of nail-biting games that swung one way or the other in the final moments, this game was different. It seemed to indicate a change in the rivalry.
While we've definitely seen stranger things happen in the past eleven games between Stanford and USC, this year's contest just might have proved that things aren't as upside down as you might think. It's time to accept this new reality, one in which Stanford, not USC, is the conference favorite, Stanford is the team with national championship aspirations, Stanford has the lightning quick athletes, and Stanford has the Heisman candidate. For much of the past decade the Cardinal and the Trojans have engaged in battles that often went down to the final possession, but these past three games have seen three convincing Stanford victories by a combined score of 109-63. This win wasn't a surprise, it's just the way things are now.
All of which brings us to 2017 and this year's match between the Cardinal and the Trojans. This early in the season it's difficult to extrapolate anything from each team's single victory -- Stanford's dismantling of Rice and USC's win over Western Michigan -- but this game will surely go a long way towards determining a pecking order in the Pac-12.
It might seem strange to say this the season after the greatest player in Stanford history leaves the program, but I firmly believe that we could be watching a rebirth of the Cardinal offense. The solid offensive line has the potential to become great with the infusion of two elite young talents in Walker Little and Foster Sarell, the wide receivers will receive a boost from a healthy J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and young phenom Connor Wedington, the tight end corps is deeper than it's ever been (which is saying something), and Bryce Love is poised to be Stanford's next Heisman Runner-Up. All of that will be good enough for the Cardinal to eke out a 31-27 win on Saturday.
But in the interest of providing a balanced preview of the game, I reached out to two different Trojan sources for an opposing point of view. The first answers are from Saman Djabbari and Will Robinson from the excellent USC podcast Traveler Hates Thursdays, and the second set comes courtesy of Alicia de Artola from the blog Reign of Troy. (You can also jump over to RoT to read my answers to their questions about the Cardinal. You can also listen to their podcast previewing Saturday's game. The whole thing is excellent, but if you're short for time you can catch my appearance starting around the 22-minute mark.)
Go Mighty Card:
For a while now USC has been the game on the schedule that I anticipate the most, and I think a lot of other Stanford fans feel this way also. What does this game mean for USC fans? Are you ready to ditch UCLA and Notre Dame and make this your true rivalry game?
Traveller Hates Thursdays:
I think this is absolutely a rivalry game in the minds of USC fans. When Clay Helton said that he wanted to build a program like Stanford's that ruffled some of the elitists in the fan base's feathers. That being said, we're not sure that anyone is ready to ditch Notre Dame and UCLA but I think it's fair to mention Stanford along with those teams in regards to rivals. They're definitely the Trojans' scariest regular Pac-12 opponent.Reign of Troy:
In recent years, the Stanford game has meant more than the Notre Dame and UCLA games. It's not quite to the point of replacing those rivalry games, but it is unquestionably a rivalry of importance to USC fans. In fact, I'd argue that it's the best Trojan rivalry at the moment because it has both elements to a great rivalry: respect and bad blood. It's impossible not to respect what David Shaw has built in Palo Alto, but having lost to the Cardinal three times in a row, I think the Trojans are itching for some revenge.
GMC:
You’ve been living with Clay Helton for a while now. How does the Trojan Family feel about him? Is he a keeper?
THT:
Depends on the day. He's built some goodwill based on the Rose Bowl win, but the Western Michigan game left something among fans to be desired. He talks the talk for sure, and it's nice to have an adult in charge of the program after the tumultuous Lane Kiffin stint and the sad Steve Sarkisian run. Helton is incredibly boring, which we mean in the kindest way. Whether he's a keeper lies largely with if he's able to capitalize on Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones. We'll also have to see what happens when Darnold leaves; is he a Gene Chizik/Mark Helfrich who in hindsight benefited from All-American talents at quarterback? The jury's out.ROT:
In terms of temperament and stability, Helton is definitely a keeper. Since Pete Carroll left, the common refrain has been that USC needs an "adult" in the room. Helton is an adult. He's steady. He's genuine. He's the kind of person you want steering the ship out of the storm. The trouble for Helton is there's still a load of skepticism around his ability to lead the Trojans to the promised land. And that's what USC fans demand of their head coach. Obviously, a minimum requirement is to not embarrass the university, but from there it's all about winning championships. Helton is the coach you really want to see succeed because he's such a good guy. But being a good guy doesn't mean you're a great head football coach. It's very much wait and see.
GMC:
What did you learn about the team following the Western Michigan game? Were any concerns raised? Were any questions answered?
THT:
We learned a few things: the wide receiver depth chart is probably fluid, the struggle is real in replacing Stevie Tu'ikolovatu, and this team can win a game with Darnold not having his best effort. In order for this team to hit the hype that is being placed upon them, they'll need to show a much better effort against the run than what they showed against Western Michigan and that starts immediately in the matchup against Stanford.ROT:
Evaluating USC against Western Michigan is tough because it's the epitome of a season opener. The Trojans were sloppy, so we learned the Trojans are capable of being sloppy. Western Michigan was able to run the ball for 263 yards, so we learned that USC's run defense may have a rough time replacing the presence of nose tackle Stevie Tu'ikolovatu and linebacker Michael Hutchings. Sam Darnold wasn't perfect, and his receivers did him very few favors. So we learned that filling the production of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers is still very much a work in progress. On the plus side, we learned that running back Ronald Jones II's extra 10 pounds of weight has only made him a more devastatingly powerful back without cutting into his home run hitting ability. We learned that true freshman Stephen Carr is a special talent. Of course, all of that doesn't mean much at this point because there's missing context. Was USC that much worse than advertised or is WMU a better team than anyone gave them credit for after losing P.J. Fleck? Were the drops and missed tackles and malaise of the first half simply first game jitters or major red flags? How different would the first half have played out defensively if preseason All-American middle linebacker Cameron Smith hadn't been suspended? Are Jones II and Carr that good or is that simply a reflection of the Bronco's deficiency as a run defense? The questions definitely outweighed the answers on Saturday.
GMC:
Sam Darnold is obviously going to be the first unanimous Heisman Trophy winner and the number one pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he hadn’t yet claimed the starting job when Stanford and USC met early last season. For Stanford fans who haven’t seen him, what are his strengths? Are there any visible flaws?
THT:
First of all, we see through your reverse jinx. It's very rude. Darnold is the most athletic and natural passer USC has had in a long, long time. His feel for the game is uncanny, as evidenced when he just hucked the game-tying Rose Bowl touchdown into a space he thought his receiver Deontay Burnett might be going to. He's also excellent at improvising and (more cliches) making something out of nothing. To paraphrase Bruce Arena when speaking of a young Clint Dempsey, Darnold tries shit. Usually, he makes the right read and progression.As for his flaws, he can be a bit too gunslingery and a bit too loose with the ball. Hopefully, this will be fixed, because it's not great when he fumbles a lot. He's got a pretty good arm, but the deep ball isn't as polished as it could for an elite passer. How many college quarterbacks are, though, this side of vintage Luck?ROT:
The college football world found out in Week 1 that Darnold is indeed human. What a shock. Of course, one of Darnold's strengths is that his performance against Western Michigan was pretty much his basement and he still completed 69 percent of his passes, threw for 289 yards, and finished with a passer rating of 131. An even bigger strength is revealed when you look a little bit closer at the performance. In the first half, Darnold went 11-of-19 and forced a throw which was tipped and intercepted. He started the second half by having another pass tipped and intercepted. Yet he came back and completed 12-of-14 passes for 175 yards. Darnold is not easily frazzled and he is at his best in the critical moments. His fourth quarter passer rating was 191. His third down passer rating was 196. For Stanford fans who haven't see a lot of him, here's what they can expect: He has an accurate arm that can zip passes into tight windows, but that makes him willing to take those risks throwing, and that can get him into trouble. He throws to spots on the field to take advantage of gaps in the secondary, trusting his receivers to get there and make a play, but that can backfire if the receivers don't get there and don't make a play. His escape-ability is top notch and he's strong enough to absorb some contact without going down as he looks to scramble away from pressure. As much as all the hype can get somewhat eye-roll-inducing, he really is an exceptional quarterback.
GMC:
The USC offensive line and wide receivers seem to have lost a lot from last season. Is either unit an area of concern, or have they just reloaded?
THT:
The wide receiver corps has more optimism to it. Deontay Burnett and Steven Mitchell return and showed Week 1 that they were more than capable guys. After that, the pecking order is murky as to who will step up and become a big-time outside threat. Luckily, the Trojans' pool is filled with 4- and 5-star guys in Michael Pittman, Tyler Vaughns, and Joseph Lewis, among others.The line has a decent amount of experience returning, albeit some players are trying new positions. The Broncos sacked Darnold twice last week, which was an incredibly irregular sight given last year's numbers. That could have been just the line getting to know each other or it could be an issue, for what it's worth Daniel Jeremiah thinks Chuma Edoga is an upgrade at right tackle so we'll see what the future holds with this unit.
ROT:
USC has recruited so well that it feels like it should be a reloading situation at both receiver and on the offensive line, but that's also easier said than done. The offensive line is a veteran enough group that the concern isn't major. Despite replacing three starters, USC's line is full of experienced players, from the oft-injured Toa Lobendahn at left tackle to left guard Chris Brown and right tackle Chuma Edoga, both of whom were part of the rotation last year and have started at points in their careers. Stanford will provide them a huge reality check after an acceptable performance against Western Michigan. It's not as clear at receiver, where Smith-Schuster and Rogers have been replaced by Steven Mitchell and Jalen Greene. Mitchell had a reasonably bright showing in Week 1, but it felt like Greene let the moment get the best of him. USC does have a talented group behind them who could push for more action, including former five-star prospects like Tyler Vaughns and Joseph Lewis.
GMC:
What do you expect to see from the USC defense? Who are the players to watch on that side of the ball?
THT:
We were expecting a staunch, aggressive, dominant unit that is prone to the big play. The fact that WMU was able to gash us in the run game was worrying, even with the departure of Stevie T. There are marquee guys in the secondary (Iman Marshall) and linebacker corps (captains Cam Smith and Uchenna Nwosu). The DLine stars Rasheem Green, but as far as proven guys, that's it for now.Clancy Pendergast's base defense is a 2-4-5, but you might see a more traditional 3-4 vs. Stanford to counter the bigger sets the Cardinal bring. That probably means more playing time for some of the true freshmen whether it's Marlon Tuipulotu, Brandon Pili or Jay Tufele. While it's the most depth USC has had on the defensive line in a while, the fact that they need to count on freshmen in that role isn't great.ROT:
I expected more from USC's defense than I saw against Western Michigan, so when it comes to facing Stanford the hope is that the opening week performance was a kick in the pants. Helton said the defense was mad this week during practice, for what it's worth. Defensive end Rasheem Green led the Trojans in tackles last Saturday, and he's a player who could have a huge impact if he can find a consistent level against the Cardinal. When USC beat Washington it was Green having the best game of his career which fueled that defensive performance. The outside linebackers Porter Gustin and Uchenna Nwosu were expected to take a big step forward this year, but last week left something to be desired. Look for them to play key roles, whether in the positive or negative sense. Obviously Smith is the most important cog in the defensive machine at middle linebacker. His impact felt All-American-level when he returned for the second half against Western Michigan. In the secondary, USC has some reliable defenders in cornerback Iman Marshall and safeties Chris Hawkins and Marvell Tell, but the guy to watch is sophomore cornerback Jack Jones. He's a former five-star with all the athleticism in the world at his disposal, but he's also the biggest question mark that could be exploited by the Cardinal passing offense.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your justification.
THT:
Will: We think Stanford will cover, but like you, I'm not proud enough to pick a USC loss -- especially to a rival. The Trojans squeak by with a 27-24 win.Saman: Sadly I don't share the same faith as Will, I still don't trust this team to beat an opponent like Stanford, however I do think this is USC's only loss of the season.ROT:
I think USC will win 29-25. The Trojans have been excellent at home under Clay Helton, and they've continually proven that they can finish games with major fourth quarter performances from Darnold and a handful of others. They'll need them on Saturday. USC's defense is feast or famine, so I worry about their ability to keep Bryce Love bottled up, but with Darnold, Jones II, and Deontay Burnett starring on offense, I think there's enough firepower to overcome the inevitable breakdowns.
