The Oregon Ducks were once the gold standard in the Pac-12 -- the West Coast's best hope for a national championship and the only program west of the SEC, aside from USC, that could realistically promote a player for the Heisman Trophy. But after master builder Chip Kelly left for the NFL in 2012, the program maintained its dominance for only two years under Mark Helfrich before dipping a bit in 2015 (9-4) and plummeting to 4-8 in 2016, Oregon's lowest win total since 1991.
With the expectations being as high as the Nike dollar is strong, the reaction in Eugene was swift. Helfrich was dismissed, and he was replaced with Willie Taggart, the one-time running backs coach on Jim Harbaugh's Stanford staff who went on to moderate success as the head coach at Western Kentucky before turning around the South Florida program, going from 2-10 in 2013 to 10-2 in 2016.
The Taggart Era got off to a controversial start at Oregon when three football players were hospitalized after what were described as overly strenuous off-season workouts that seemed straight from the 1940s. One of Taggart's stated goals upon his arrival was to instill a tougher attitude, and apparently he and his strength and conditioning coach went about this by having players do non-stop push-ups and up-downs for more than an hour.
Once the regular season started and people forgot about that issue, things began to look much brighter for Taggart and the Ducks. They started the season with three straight wins over two cupcakes and what appears to be a mediocre Nebraska team, but then they lost two of their next three, their lone win over what appears to be a mediocre Cal team.
The Ducks now sit at 4-2, but they're headed into a brutal stretch of games that will ultimately determine their season: Stanford and UCLA on the road, a home game against Utah, then back out to face Washington. That would be daunting even if the Ducks were at full strength, but sadly they are not. Starting quarterback Justin Herbert broke his collarbone against Cal and will likely miss all of those games. In his place is true freshman Braxton Burmeister; the operative words there are "true freshman." (Here's a deep look at his first start.)
So what does this mean for Saturday's game? I'm guessing the Ducks will be motivated. Regardless of what Chip Kelly used to say, the Stanford-Oregon matchup was always one of the more important games on Oregon's schedule, just as it has been for the Cardinal. Three times in the past eight years one school took away a national championship shot from the other, and last year was the first time since 2008 that a team other than Stanford or Oregon emerged as conference champion.
Even with the likely uptick in adrenaline the Ducks will feel playing a familiar rival, even though they might feel inspired to help their coach hang a loss on an old colleague, even though 28-year-old Royce Freeman is somehow enjoying his ninth year of NCAA eligibility, this isn't a game the Ducks will win. With all of their uncertainties on offense and a defense that is still a work in progress, I don't believe Oregon will be able to score enough points to stay in this game. Stanford's Chrystello Offense continues to improve, particularly the offensive line, and Bryce Love continues to astound. All of that should add up to a comfortable Stanford victory, 37-17.
But don't just take my word for it. Why not listen to Addicted to Quack's Matt Takimoto -- Duck expert and molder of young minds. (Oh, and you should also read his recent Tako Tuesday column, in which he explains the transformation of the sexy new Oregon defense. Really. It's sexy.)
Anyway, here are his brilliant answers to my brilliant questions...
Go Mighty Card:
What’s the general state of the program? Things have slipped a bit since the championship levels under Chip Kelly and the beginning of Mark Helfrich’s tenure, but how are things now? How does the fanbase feel about Willie Taggart?
Matt Takimoto:
Willie Taggart's brought much-needed energy to the program, along with a dream team of assistants including Mario Cristobal, Marcus Arroyo, and Jim Leavitt. He's also living up to his reputation as a recruiter. I've been cautiously optimistic with Taggart as an in-game coach; the offense has shown inconsistencies and penalty woes, and the late game management in the loss to Arizona State was pretty bad. But I liked the hire when it happened, and I still like it now. And the importance of a black head coach at Oregon's flagship university -- a state with a troubling history in regards to race -- can't be overstated.
GMC:
What do you know for sure about this Ducks team?
Tako:
The defense has zero quit, and has quickly become the emotional center of the team. After losing quarterback Justin Herbert to a broken collarbone against Cal, the offense is hobbling. Last year's team would've gotten blown out last week against Washington State. But the defense made a good Cougars offense look ordinary, and Oregon was still within striking distance in the second half despite having zero offensive mojo. So the one thing I know for sure? They're gonna play hard for 60 minutes.
GMC:
Tell me about Royce Freeman. After peaking as a sophomore, I assumed he’d be in the NFL by now, but here he is. Can we expect the same thing we’ve always seen from him, or has his role in the offense changed under the new regime?
Tako:
If he hadn't have battled nagging injuries all last year, he probably would have declared by now. But Willie Taggart won him over, and he wanted the redemption shot. The first three games of the year, he looked extraordinary, running through and past people with ease. But he exited the Cal game with a shoulder injury, and looked tentative and limited against Washington State, so many Ducks fans are worried about seeing the injury bug of 2016 repeat itself.
GMC:
With Justin Herbert assumed out for this week, that leaves true freshman Braxton Burmeister. What are his strengths and weaknesses as a quarterback? Has the offense changed with him at the controls?
Tako:
He's a true dual-threat, rather than a Mariota or Herbert "passer that can run" type. He's just so, so inexperienced; he really wasn't getting reps, even in practice, until the Cal game pressed him into action. Until he gets a feel for the college game, the offense is going to be bare bones, basic, and not super effective. And that's okay. This was always going to be a rebuilding year, and now it's a SUPER rebuilding year.
GMC:
Can it really be true that the Ducks are secretly building an elite defense? If so, where are they in that process? How do you think they’ll approach Bryce Love and the Stanford offense?
Tako:
Like I said earlier, this defense has zero quit; they're relentless, aggressive, energetic, and easy to love. Inside linebacker Troy Dye is the prototypical "college linebacker who seems to be everywhere." Think Shane Skov, with less eye black. [Editor's Note: Why would there be less eye black?] Freshman corner Thomas Graham has been impressive this season, and defensive tackle Jordon Scott is a beautiful man. With five 4-star defensive recruits currently committed, this group could be scary in a year or two. With Bryce Love having the season he's having, the Oregon defense is going to have to make someone else beat them. If Keller Chryst/KJ Costello/Kevin Chogan/whichever other KC quarterback Stanford may have ends up throwing for 4 touchdowns, so be it. But Bryce Love looks like he's on his way to take his place as the next Stanford running back to finish second in the Heisman voting, so he needs to be the first/second/third priorities.
GMC:
What’s your prediction? Give a final score and your best guess for how we get there.
Tako:
I think it looks a lot like the Oregon-WSU game did last week; Oregon's offense can't get into a rhythm, and the defense can only hold out for so long. Bryce Love finally breaks a long one in the fourth quarter to put it away, Stanford wins 30-17.
