In the old days, Washington State was a team that posed no real threat to the Cardinal. There were some narrow wins -- and even a miraculous one in 2015 -- but David Shaw never lost to the Cougars. Until last year. Last year's 42-16 drubbing, which came a week after an even worse defeat at the hands of the other Washington school, was a low point in Stanford's season and a moment which caused many to question the direction of the program.
The truth is, that game was more about Washington State than it was about Stanford. Head coach Mike Leach has forged a team in his own identity and the result is a high-powered offense and an increasingly stingy defense. The team announced its arrival on the national stage with a statement win at home over then-fifth-ranked USC, then followed that up with an equally impressive 33-10 trouncing of Oregon. At 6-0, the Cougars seemed like not just a team on the rise, but a team deserving of inclusion in the national championship conversation.
What happened next was almost unthinkable -- unless you've been following Washington State football for the past two decades. They Coug'd it. They travelled to Berkeley to play the lowly Bears (yes, they're lowly; don't let anyone tell you any different) and were absolutely mauled, 37-3. Two weeks later they lost to Arizona by three touchdowns.
So who are the real Cougars? The team that controlled USC and dominated Oregon? Or the group that couldn't handle road trips to Berkeley and Tucson? In those two troubling losses, the deciding factor was quarterback play. Against Cal, Luke Falk (arguably the greatest quarterback in Washington State history) threw five interceptions as the offense produced only a single field goal. Two weeks later against Arizona, Falk was benched midway through the game in favor of sophomore backup Tyler Hilinski. Although Hilinski filled up the stat sheet with 509 yards passing, he threw four interceptions.
While we might not know which quarterback will be under center (Falk will start), we do know this -- the Cougars will come out firing, and the loss of starting cornerback Alijah Holder could not have come at a worse time. (You might remember that both Holder and Quenton Meeks were out for last year's game.)
But there is good news on the other side of the ball for the Cardinal. K.J. Costello will start at quarterback, and while Costello hasn't been terribly impressive when inserted for brief stints, he's been excellent as a starter, and the offense has been more nuanced and consistent. Oh, and then there's this, announced just this afternoon. Bryce Love -- remember him? -- will play. That's really all you need to know. While some have expressed concerns about his ankle and whether or not he's actually ready, I'd counter with this. There are many mysteries surrounding player personnel decisions made by the Stanford brain trust, but there is one thing I know for sure: they will never push a player back from injury before he's ready. If Love is playing on Saturday afternoon, it's because he's ready.
With all of that in mind, I think Stanford wins this game in tough, grind-it-out fashion. Love will rumble for 170 yards, Costello will play efficiently, and the Cardinal defense will help the team gut out another important conference road win. Stanford 27, Washington State 23.
For another angle, I contacted my old friend Coug-a-Sutra. Cougars are the most adaptable of the big cats, so it's no surprise that even two thousand miles from the Paloose, Sutra is still thriving in the Deep South. You should check out his thoughtful open letter to the Washington State senior class, and below you'll find his answers to my questions about the Cougs. (Full disclosure: he answered these 48 hours before the announcements about Costello and Love.) Enjoy...
Go Mighty Card:
When Washington State upset USC last month, then followed that by crushing Oregon on the road, the Cougs were squarely in the college playoff picture. After losses to Cal and Arizona, there are suddenly lots of questions. What’s been going wrong recently?
Coug-a-Soutra:
So nice of you to start with the softball questions! Here’s my short answer:
The defense has played only one bad game all year — and that was last week against Arizona. Honestly, it was the first game where the defense consistently paid for its (over) aggressiveness. And once they got burned a few times by Khalil Tate, they panicked. So, I don’t think there’s anything necessarily going on with that group, and I think we’d see a qualitatively different game against Arizona if we played them again (i.e., we might only give up 37 points).
Beyond the defense, the Cougars have been remarkably inconsistent for a team that is 7-2. The kicking game has been mostly spectacular, while the punting game has been mostly disastrous. So, there’s a ‘box of chocolates’ element to the #SpecialForces /Special Teams unit, and their play may be especially volatile (awful) in the kind of weather conditions we might see on Saturday.
Then, on offense, we’ve become a bit of a mess. The primary strengths of this football team coming into the year were Luke Falk, the running game, and the offensive line. All three have struggled mightily at times this year, although the offensive line seems like they might be starting to turn the corner in a positive way.
But the big things is that WSU has reverted back to the 2013-2014 years of not running the football. Gerard Wicks, who had 11 rushing touchdowns last season, has one so far this year and seldom plays. And the lack of a running game has enabled teams to rush 3 and drop 8 without much consequence. And unfortunately, Luke Falk hasn’t dealt with that very well in two out of the last three games. The guy can’t run, so his only remedy is to fire the ball off quickly and that has never been his M-O.
In the Colorado game, the weather forced us to run, so Falk was much more workmanlike. In addition, because we got ahead in that one early, it enabled us to be a LOT more patient with the running game. Unfortunately, we had no such luxury against Arizona and Cal and we looked TERRIBLE as a result.
GMC:
I’m so glad this is the last time I have to ask you this question: What’s the most impressive thing about Luke Falk? (And how was he able to secure seven years of NCAA eligibility?)
Sutra:
Luke Falk’s greatest attributes are his preparation, his game management skills, and his accuracy in MOST situations. He is arguably the best quarterback in the conference when he has a running game and is able to pick and choose his windows down field. At his best, he is effective, efficient, and above all, plays mistake free football. So, when we run the ball and the #SpeedD plays it’s A-game, we are a hard team to beat. Top 10 in my book.
GMC:
The Stanford Twitterverse was screaming for a change at quarterback during last week’s Oregon State game, but it never happened. Do you agree with Mike Leach’s decision to bench the most prolific quarterback in school and (almost) conference history? What was going on in that game with Falk?
Sutra:
I think Leach is facing one of the more difficult decisions a coach can face with Falk, Hilinski, and this offense. Last week notwithstanding, this defense is good enough to win a conference championship provided that the offense can move the ball, score a few points, and take care of the ball. But absent a consistent run game or threat, Falk looks spooked when teams drop eight. He’s been erratic, thrown errant passes into triple coverage — just a whole lot of stuff you don’t expect to see from a guy like him. Meanwhile, Tyler Hilinski is more of the quick “Gunslinger.” He’s got quick feet, he runs well, and distributes the ball effectively around the field. Unfortunately, like most aggressive young quarterbacks, he’s highly mistake prone.
So, for me at least, the question facing the Cougs and Leach is schematic. If we have the personnel and will to run the ball, then Falk is the ideal quarterback for this week and this team. And if we don’t, then I’d expect to see Tyler Hilinski enter Saturday’s game sometime in the second or third quarter.
GMC:
I’m looking over the receiving stats for Washington State this year, and it makes my head hurt. Do any of these guys stand out, or is it just an unstoppable army of wide receivers?
Sutra:
Tavares Martin is the A-List target, and he’ll be the guy that Meeks stays with for most of the night. The other guys are works-in-progress, although they’ve had their share of promising moments. Renard Bell and Jamire Calvin — both freshman — are playmakers on the inside who are still trying to figure it out, although Bell has been over 100 yards receiving on three occasions. Johnson-Mack and Patmon are two BIG targets on the outside who have also shown flashes of big play ability. Both of those guys also feel like they’re a half step away from breaking out and through. And if and when they do, LOOK OUT!
But the lurking superstar might be true freshman Tay Martin out of Louisiana. The guy was a highlight reel basketball player/dunker — he’s 6 foot 3, athletic, and FAST. His presence figures to make WSU scary down the stretch if we can figure the other issues out. At the very least, that group looks like they’re going to score a lot of points next year.
GMC:
How are things on the defensive side of the ball? What can we expect to see in terms of scheme, and who are the stars to look out for?
Sutra:
The defense, in my view, is the best in the conference outside of Washington. What’s amazing is that they’ve been steadily improving with a host of youth at linebacker and in the secondary. Hercules Matafa is the All-America candidate at defensive tackle that will be an obvious point of emphasis. The other primary playmakers are Frank Luvu (rush linebacker) and Jalen Thompson (safety). Beyond those folks, Hunter Dale has been really solid this year at nickel, and Jahad Woods has been great taking over for Isaac Dotson at the WIL linebacker position.
GMC:
There’s been lots of criticism of David Shaw from within the Stanford fan base this season. As an outsider looking in, how do you perceive Coach Shaw?
Sutra:
Shaw is an A-list coach, a tremendous person and motivator, a terrific recruiter, and someone that should be around Palo Alto for a long, long time. The primary problem that the Trees have faced the past couple of years has been inconsistent-to-mediocre quarterback play. Kevin Hogan was such a gem and they just haven’t found the next version of him, Luck, etc. Once that position turns, then we’ll see the “Power of the Dark Side” return once again. I would be very surprised if Stanford goes anywhere but up over the next two to three years after Chryst gets the heck out of town, and I think 9-10 wins is a reasonable expectation for each and every season. And honestly, it’s REALLY hard to do better than that when you’re in the Pac-12 North, play both LA schools every year, AND play Notre Dame every season.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
Sutra:
I don’t think that this is a good match-up for Stanford. The WSU defense has had their number in the past, and the recent struggles of the Stanford defensive line suggest that WSU may be able to get the run game going just enough to allow Luke Falk and company to hit their stride. On top of that, I don’t think Love is going to play, and if he doesn’t, I don’t think he’ll last long because this Cougar defense really likes to hit. They actually hit a lot like Stanford’s defense has in the past.
Couple of final takes before the prediction. Stanford doesn’t have to win this game to win the conference — but WSU does. And barring some sort of miracle, we aren’t beating Washington. So, win or lose this week, the Pac-12 North race is probably going to be determined by what happens next week in Palo Alto. I think Stanford knows that, while WSU will be fighting for their season.
Lastly, there are two scenarios where I think Stanford can win. The first is if they get ahead 10-14 points early, drop eight into coverage, and force Luke into seeing the same ghosts he’s seen the past couple of weeks. The second is for Stanford to consistently roll Chryst out of the pocket and throw a bunch of quick hitters to the tight ends and running backs — much in the same way that Cal did to us a few weeks ago.
But ultimately, I just don’t like the match-up for Stanford, not with the existing quarterback play, not with the existing play on the defensive line, and not without Holder to help lock down our big X receivers.
I’ll call it Cougs 31, Stanford 17, setting up next week’s show down between UW and Stanford for the de facto Pac-12 North title game.
