I started this blog seven years ago, mainly because I figured my friends needed a break from the lengthly emails I'd send out after each Stanford football game. One of my friends even suggested that my site could grow to the point where I'd be the voice of Stanford football. (At the time, there were no other Stanford blogs; RuleOfTree.com opened shop the same week I did.) Anyway, my voice obviously never became that influential, but those who have been reading long enough definitely know that I'm one of the most positive voices out there, perhaps positive to a fault.
The advantage I have over many of the younger bloggers following Stanford football is that I remember the darkness. How could I ever complain about the wattage of the bulbs we've got now when there were so many years when we were alone in the cellar searching desperately for candles? But with the sustained success of the program, the expectations have understandably changed.
Today the Cardinal stands at 6-3 overall and 5-2 in conference, with those two losses being an early defeat on the road at USC and last week's three-point defeat at Washington State. Stanford is yet to lose a game at home, but many fans and observers have given the Cardinal no shot at beating the ninth-ranked Washington Huskies tonight, no shot at beating #3 Notre Dame in the season finale, and only slightly better odds against Cal in between.
For now, though, let's focus on the Huskies. There can be no doubt that Washington is a great team, but they've been inconsistent and even perplexing at times. In 2016 they finished the regular season 11-1, crushed #8 Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship game, then played respectably in a 24-7 loss to Alabama in the National Semifinals.
This year it's been more of the same. The Huskies enjoy a balanced offense, led by quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin, who's about to go over the thousand-yard mark for the third season in a row, but this team is driven by its defense. No matter which way you choose to measure that unit, the Huskies are among the nation's best:
| Category | Stat | Rank |
| Yards/Game | 252.0 | 3rd |
| Yards/Play | 3.7 | 1st |
| Rushing YPG | 100.0 | 6th |
| Opponent PPG | 11.6 | 3rd |
| Sacks/Game | 2.9 | 17th |
It was no surprise when the Huskies came out of the chute 6-0, but those wins came against the weakest six teams on their schedule. Against Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State, and Cal they averaged 43 points while allowing just a total of 61 points on defense.
They rose to number five in the nation and were the clear favorites in the Pac-12 North, but then they travelled south to Arizona State. The Sun Devils were only 2-3 and had lost by ten to Stanford the week before, but they rose to the occasion and handed the Huskies their first loss, a confusing 13-7 score that exposed Washington a bit. They didn't score their first points until deep into the fourth quarter, and their high-powered offense managed just 230 total yards.
The Huskies rebounded in recent weeks, cruising past UCLA, 44-23, and crushing Oregon, 38-3, but I would argue that even though it's November 10th, this team still hasn't beaten anyone of note. Their non-conference schedule, as usual, was underwhelming, with only two FBS teams, both weaklings. In Pac-12 play, they've seen only one team with a winning record -- Arizona State. Their other league opponents have a combined record of 8-25. Now, it clearly isn't Washington's fault that their schedule has lined up this way, but it can't be ignored. While it's certainly true that the Huskies are the Pac-12's last hope for having a representative in the College Football Playoffs, their lofty ranking could be a bit of a mirage. They'll show up in Palo Alto tonight with much to prove.
On the other side of the field, of course, is the Stanford Cardinal. After last week's road loss to Washington State, head coach David Shaw placed all the blame on his own shoulders. "I feel like I let my team down," he explained. "I didn't give my guys enough opportunities to make plays." Many fans echoed those sentiments, but regardless of where the blame falls, the reality is that the 6-2 Cardinal is looking down the barrel of a four-game losing streak and a 6-5 regular season.
But all of the kvetching in the fanbase obscures another fact -- last week's loss followed a five-game winning streak that saw the Cardinal playing the best football in the conference. Last week's loss was on the road, in the snow, against a desperate team that was playing on Senior Day. Just considering the emotional side of the game, there were dozens of reasons why Washington State should've cruised to that win, but instead the game was in doubt deep into the fourth quarter.
So to review, we've got one team that's ridden perhaps the weakest schedule in the conference to its current position as Pac-12 favorite, and another that played poorly in consecutive road games but split those two contests. The numbers might favor the Huskies, but this is a dangerous game for them. Stanford will be the more desperate team, with the players and the head coach eager to answer their critics.
Although this will be the third start of K.J. Costello's career, this week of practice was the first that he's ever spent as the acknowledged starting quarterback. The increase in practice reps, not to mention the boost in confidence, will no doubt pay dividends tonight, and this is the type of game in which David Shaw typically opens the playbook a bit wider. In the three games in which Costello had the majority of the snaps (wins over UCLA and Arizona State, and last week's loss to Washington State), he attempted 19, 24, and 20 passes. If that number creeps up into the neighborhood of 25 to 30, I'd see that as a positive sign.
If Costello can lead a passing game that's actually challenging the Washington defense and preventing them from stacking seven or eight defenders in the box to stop Bryce Love, this offense will be difficult to stop. The question, of course, is whether or not the coaching staff will allow that. Based on what we heard from Shaw after Saturday's loss and during Monday's press conference, he realizes that he needs to take advantage of his weapons, and tonight is the night. Costello will pass for 175 yards, Love will run for 150, and the Cardinal will win, 27-20.
