Shaw's bowl record is an impressive 4-2, with two wins in the Rose Bowl and one each in the Foster Farms and Sun Bowls. Here's a quick rundown. (For the sake of consistency, January bowl games are listed by the years of the season, not the actual dates of the games.)
2011: Fiesta Bowl -- Oklahoma State 41, Stanford 38 (OT)
In Andrew Luck's final game, the Cardinal lost when a last second field goal attempt sailed wide of the uprights. Things didn't go well in overtime, but it was one of the best games you'll ever see, even if the result still stings.
In Andrew Luck's final game, the Cardinal lost when a last second field goal attempt sailed wide of the uprights. Things didn't go well in overtime, but it was one of the best games you'll ever see, even if the result still stings.
2012: Rose Bowl -- Stanford 20, Wisconsin 14
Stanford wins the Rose Bowl. What's better than that?
Stanford wins the Rose Bowl. What's better than that?
2013: Rose Bowl -- Michigan State 24, Stanford 20
What I remember most about this game was how little the loss bothered me. It was, after all, the Rose Bowl.
What I remember most about this game was how little the loss bothered me. It was, after all, the Rose Bowl.
2014: Foster Farms Bowl -- Stanford 45, Maryland 21
The Cardinal struggled through the 2014 season, but the offense finally came together over the final three games, and this explosion served as a preview of what was to come in 2015. We also began to realize that Christian McCaffrey might be pretty good.
The Cardinal struggled through the 2014 season, but the offense finally came together over the final three games, and this explosion served as a preview of what was to come in 2015. We also began to realize that Christian McCaffrey might be pretty good.
2015: Rose Bowl -- Stanford 45, Iowa 16
Two words -- Christian. McCaffrey. Yes, the team was great -- without question the best of the David Shaw Era -- but this game was about McCaffrey, who proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was the best college football player in America in 2015, no matter what the Downtown Athletic Club might have thought.
Two words -- Christian. McCaffrey. Yes, the team was great -- without question the best of the David Shaw Era -- but this game was about McCaffrey, who proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was the best college football player in America in 2015, no matter what the Downtown Athletic Club might have thought.
2016: Sun Bowl -- Stanford 25, North Carolina 23
Just as the previous year's Rose Bowl had been McCaffrey's stage, the 2016 Sun Bowl belonged to defensive end Solomon Thomas. Oh, and there was also a young running back named Bryce Love.
Just as the previous year's Rose Bowl had been McCaffrey's stage, the 2016 Sun Bowl belonged to defensive end Solomon Thomas. Oh, and there was also a young running back named Bryce Love.
As noted, Shaw's 4-2 record in those six bowl games is nice, but regular season success is a better metric for determining the overall health of a college football program, and when we compare Stanford to its seven bowl opponents under Shaw, there really is no comparison. Only Oklahoma State and Wisconsin have earned bowl bids in each of these seven seasons, and no team can match Stanford's 73 wins during that span. (Wisconsin comes close with 72; TCU has 61.) For visual evidence, check out this chart. (I added Cal, just for fun.) When reading the chart, remember that Stanford, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and TCU are all yet to play in their 2017 bowl games.
While the graph is pretty (please note that the colors match the schools) and the Ghosts of Bowl Games Past are fun to think about, it's likely that neither will have much bearing on Thursday night's Alamo Bowl against the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian. Stanford's fate will be determined by the same factors we've been monitoring all season long. Will Bryce Love be able to stay on the field? Will K.J. Costello continue his improvement? Will the offense be dynamic or stagnant? Will the defense be able to keep yet another high-powered offense in front of it? These are the questions that try our souls.
We haven't heard much about Bryce Love's ankle over the past few weeks, but given the program's policy regarding player health, that doesn't really mean anything. The one thing we can probably assume is that the injury can't be worse than it was over the season's final four games, and even that version of Bryce was good enough to fall in love with. As usual, the number to watch for in this regard is neither total yards rushing nor yards per carry, but the most basic metric for any running back: touches. If Love gets more than twenty carries, he'll likely have at least one big run, and the Cardinal will likely win. And while Love would tell you to stay focused on the scoreboard, I'll tell you to watch for two milestones. Love needs just 27 yards to top 2,000 on the season, and only twenty more after that to break McCaffrey's single season Stanford record. If that happens in the first quarter, that'll be a good sign.
Even give all that, the most important player on the Stanford offense could be Costello. His improvement over the season's final four games was fairly dramatic, and I'm looking forward to seeing how much he's continued to grow during the last four weeks of practice. He'll be at the helm of what could be the best offense in the Pac-12 in 2018, and this bowl game could serve as a stepping stone towards future success. If he can complete sixty percent of his passes and avoid turnovers -- neither of which is unreasonable -- the Cardinal offense will be in good shape against TCU.
Another player to watch will be defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who will be playing in his final game for the Cardinal. The defense will face a strong challenge from the Frogs' high octane offense, but I have no doubt that Phillips and his defense (it is his defense, after all) will be ready.
If all of that comes together, I see the Cardinal riding Costello and Love to a 34-27 win.
But of course, you probably knew I'd pick the Cardinal; you came here looking for information on Texas Christian. Fear not! I contacted Melissa Triebwasser from Frogs of War, and she was kind enough to answer a ton of questions about TCU. (If you're interested, you can jump over to their site and read my answers to their questions about the Cardinal. The stat heads in the audience should also definitely check out another piece they've got going into some of the deeper numbers and trends for both teams.) So here's Melissa...
Go Mighty Card:
Let’s start off with Gary Patterson. It’s hard to believe that any school could keep a head coach for seventeen years. (Stanford fans are hoping for similar longevity from David Shaw, by the way.) How do TCU fans feel about Patterson? How has he been so successful, and why hasn’t he left?
Let’s start off with Gary Patterson. It’s hard to believe that any school could keep a head coach for seventeen years. (Stanford fans are hoping for similar longevity from David Shaw, by the way.) How do TCU fans feel about Patterson? How has he been so successful, and why hasn’t he left?
Frogs of War:
Gary Patterson can do no wrong in Fort Worth, and for good reason. He's won championships in three conferences, followed each of his (only) three losing seasons by winning at least ten games the following year, taken the Frogs to three BCS/NY6 bowls, and now brought his recruiting up to a top 25 level after years of identifying four star talent with two star ratings. GP has a statue at The Carter, the only living person to have that honor (and to be clear, he didn't want to, but a very ill donor convinced him to install it while he was still living), and when he does decided to hang it up (likely when his recently extended contract ends in 2024), he will have the field or something named after him. He's hired great assistants, including several former players, he's made character a priority, and he has sold athletes, families, and fans on a family spirit within the program that has been born out as real time and time again. TCU fans love GP, appreciate his loyalty, and understand that he has done a ton for TCU, not just TCU Football.
Gary Patterson can do no wrong in Fort Worth, and for good reason. He's won championships in three conferences, followed each of his (only) three losing seasons by winning at least ten games the following year, taken the Frogs to three BCS/NY6 bowls, and now brought his recruiting up to a top 25 level after years of identifying four star talent with two star ratings. GP has a statue at The Carter, the only living person to have that honor (and to be clear, he didn't want to, but a very ill donor convinced him to install it while he was still living), and when he does decided to hang it up (likely when his recently extended contract ends in 2024), he will have the field or something named after him. He's hired great assistants, including several former players, he's made character a priority, and he has sold athletes, families, and fans on a family spirit within the program that has been born out as real time and time again. TCU fans love GP, appreciate his loyalty, and understand that he has done a ton for TCU, not just TCU Football.
Patterson won early by being able to see in high school kids something that most people didn't. His defenses are littered with former QBs and running backs that he turned into top flight linebackers and defensive ends, developing guys no one had ever heard of into NFL players. He beat C-USA and MWC teams with speed and scheme, and now he's beating Big 12 talent by being adaptable and letting his coaches have more freedom and autonomy. He could have left so many times, but he loves Fort Worth, loves being able to be a football coach and a human being, and most importantly, he married a Fort Worth girl who didn't want to leave.
GMC:
The Big 12 is known for its prolific offenses, but the naysayers will argue that all those points are a result of poor defenses. My guess is that there’s some truth to both statements, but what do you see?
The Big 12 is known for its prolific offenses, but the naysayers will argue that all those points are a result of poor defenses. My guess is that there’s some truth to both statements, but what do you see?
Frogs:
Everyone says the Big 12 doesn't play defense, and then year after year, Big 12 teams go into bowl season and win a bunch of games. Last year, they went 4-2 despite being dogs in five games, and they consistently post a winning record in postseason play. There are some sieves for sure, but TCU is one of the best defensive teams in the country in nearly every major statistical category, and that's despite playing the country's number one offense twice and its number two offense once. Guys like Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State), Will Grier (West Virginia), and Charlie Brewer (Baylor - just a true freshman but man, he's going to be good) are all going to get shots in the league, and there have been plenty of others before them. Shoot, look at what Jarrett Stidham, a former Baylor quarterback, is doing to those vaunted SEC defenses in his first year as a starter! Texas, West Virginia, and Iowa State are all really good defenses, and Oklahoma was at the end of the year when they started getting healthy. Even Texas Tech was a top 15 team in turnover margin, and they are historically one of the worst defenses in the conference. Everybody wants to talk about the SEC's defenses, but if you put just about any decent Big 12 defense up against whoever Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Kentucky, etc were rolling out at quarterback this year, you would look pretty good, too.
Everyone says the Big 12 doesn't play defense, and then year after year, Big 12 teams go into bowl season and win a bunch of games. Last year, they went 4-2 despite being dogs in five games, and they consistently post a winning record in postseason play. There are some sieves for sure, but TCU is one of the best defensive teams in the country in nearly every major statistical category, and that's despite playing the country's number one offense twice and its number two offense once. Guys like Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State), Will Grier (West Virginia), and Charlie Brewer (Baylor - just a true freshman but man, he's going to be good) are all going to get shots in the league, and there have been plenty of others before them. Shoot, look at what Jarrett Stidham, a former Baylor quarterback, is doing to those vaunted SEC defenses in his first year as a starter! Texas, West Virginia, and Iowa State are all really good defenses, and Oklahoma was at the end of the year when they started getting healthy. Even Texas Tech was a top 15 team in turnover margin, and they are historically one of the worst defenses in the conference. Everybody wants to talk about the SEC's defenses, but if you put just about any decent Big 12 defense up against whoever Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Kentucky, etc were rolling out at quarterback this year, you would look pretty good, too.
GMC:
What do you think is the coolest tradition connected to TCU football? This could be a game day ritual or a rivalry tidbit or anything else that makes the Horned Frogs unique.
What do you think is the coolest tradition connected to TCU football? This could be a game day ritual or a rivalry tidbit or anything else that makes the Horned Frogs unique.
Frogs:
Fort Worth is an old railroad town, and as such, we celebrate every score with a train horn known as the Frog Horn. It's similar, actually, to something that Stanford does, but ours is a custom-built trailer that travels to all our games. We also have a unique fight song that inspired our "Riff Ram" videos that play after the first quarter of every home game, and ends with a TCU luminary saying "Give Em Hell, TCU."
Fort Worth is an old railroad town, and as such, we celebrate every score with a train horn known as the Frog Horn. It's similar, actually, to something that Stanford does, but ours is a custom-built trailer that travels to all our games. We also have a unique fight song that inspired our "Riff Ram" videos that play after the first quarter of every home game, and ends with a TCU luminary saying "Give Em Hell, TCU."
GMC:
The Horned Frogs weren’t too far away from playing in the College Football Playoffs. How close is this team to that elite level?
The Horned Frogs weren’t too far away from playing in the College Football Playoffs. How close is this team to that elite level?
Frogs:
Defensively, pretty close, but the offense held the Frogs back down the stretch, especially after we lost our stud sophomore running back. Kenny Hill is a serviceable, but not explosive quarterback, and paired with an offensive line that struggled after losing their best player and a wide receiver corps jinxed with the dropsies, there was no way TCU could compete with Oklahoma offensively -- and that's what defined elite in the Big 12 this year. The defense is really good though, and still relatively young -- the defensive front will be a lot of fun to watch against Bryce Love, and the linebackers are as good as you'll find anywhere in the country. TCU has two potentially special quarterbacks coming up -- true freshman Shawn Robinson won his only start of the season (on the road in Lubbock, which isn't easy), and [recruit] Justin Rogers is the #2 dual-threat in the country, and is so good he signed on an actual throne. If they play up to their hype, or even close to it, the Frogs should be a final four contender for the next several years.
Defensively, pretty close, but the offense held the Frogs back down the stretch, especially after we lost our stud sophomore running back. Kenny Hill is a serviceable, but not explosive quarterback, and paired with an offensive line that struggled after losing their best player and a wide receiver corps jinxed with the dropsies, there was no way TCU could compete with Oklahoma offensively -- and that's what defined elite in the Big 12 this year. The defense is really good though, and still relatively young -- the defensive front will be a lot of fun to watch against Bryce Love, and the linebackers are as good as you'll find anywhere in the country. TCU has two potentially special quarterbacks coming up -- true freshman Shawn Robinson won his only start of the season (on the road in Lubbock, which isn't easy), and [recruit] Justin Rogers is the #2 dual-threat in the country, and is so good he signed on an actual throne. If they play up to their hype, or even close to it, the Frogs should be a final four contender for the next several years.
GMC:
Looking at the statistics of quarterback Kenny Hill, I’m struck by his consistency. Aside from the Iowa State loss, he seemed to put up good numbers each week. What are his strengths and weaknesses? Is he the focal point of the offense?
Looking at the statistics of quarterback Kenny Hill, I’m struck by his consistency. Aside from the Iowa State loss, he seemed to put up good numbers each week. What are his strengths and weaknesses? Is he the focal point of the offense?
Frogs:
Hahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahha. You are the first person in history to put Kenny Hill and consistent in the same sentence unironically. Hill was better this year than last, but isn't the kind of quarterback you're going to want to rely on down a couple scores late. When he's asked to do too much, he makes mistakes -- the Frogs had success this year because they didn't need him to go win a lot of games behind a great defense and a really good running game. He tends to miss his throws by about 6" -- too low, too high, behind -- just enough to make an easy catch difficult or turn a potential big play into a short gain with a ball that a receiver has to slide to haul in or one behind him that he had to reach back to snag. Hill doesn't deserve all the blame for TCU's offensive struggles -- except maybe the Iowa State game, he was bad in that one -- but at the end of the day, he's been more good than great, and that wasn't enough to win the big game on the schedule. He's gotten better at the short and medium game, struggles with the deep ball, and can be inconsistent when he has to go to his second and third read. He is incredibly athletic, good at extending plays with his legs, and as a senior, the moment isn't often too big for him.
Hahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahha. You are the first person in history to put Kenny Hill and consistent in the same sentence unironically. Hill was better this year than last, but isn't the kind of quarterback you're going to want to rely on down a couple scores late. When he's asked to do too much, he makes mistakes -- the Frogs had success this year because they didn't need him to go win a lot of games behind a great defense and a really good running game. He tends to miss his throws by about 6" -- too low, too high, behind -- just enough to make an easy catch difficult or turn a potential big play into a short gain with a ball that a receiver has to slide to haul in or one behind him that he had to reach back to snag. Hill doesn't deserve all the blame for TCU's offensive struggles -- except maybe the Iowa State game, he was bad in that one -- but at the end of the day, he's been more good than great, and that wasn't enough to win the big game on the schedule. He's gotten better at the short and medium game, struggles with the deep ball, and can be inconsistent when he has to go to his second and third read. He is incredibly athletic, good at extending plays with his legs, and as a senior, the moment isn't often too big for him.
GMC:
The Frogs seem to employ a stable of running backs, and the run game looks to be a significant part of the offense. What are the differences between all these backs? Who do you expect to play well against the Cardinal?
The Frogs seem to employ a stable of running backs, and the run game looks to be a significant part of the offense. What are the differences between all these backs? Who do you expect to play well against the Cardinal?
Frogs:
This was true in September but is less so now. The Frogs lost a huge piece of their offense in November when Darius Anderson went out, and while the sophomore running back is listed as a game time decision for Thursday, no one actually expects him to play. Without DA, TCU has to rely heavily on senior Kyle Hicks, a very talented runner and pass catcher, but not the kind of guy you want carrying 25 times because he's just not that big. Behind him is Sewo Olonilua, a 6'3", 235 pound monster who is effective in short yardage situations but not much of a game breaker, as well as a pair of small but unbelievably explosive multi-purpose players in junior KaVontae Turpin and freshman Kenedy Snell. The Frogs will also use a lot of sweeps and screens in the running game to manufacture yards, as well as the quarterback running game.
This was true in September but is less so now. The Frogs lost a huge piece of their offense in November when Darius Anderson went out, and while the sophomore running back is listed as a game time decision for Thursday, no one actually expects him to play. Without DA, TCU has to rely heavily on senior Kyle Hicks, a very talented runner and pass catcher, but not the kind of guy you want carrying 25 times because he's just not that big. Behind him is Sewo Olonilua, a 6'3", 235 pound monster who is effective in short yardage situations but not much of a game breaker, as well as a pair of small but unbelievably explosive multi-purpose players in junior KaVontae Turpin and freshman Kenedy Snell. The Frogs will also use a lot of sweeps and screens in the running game to manufacture yards, as well as the quarterback running game.
GMC:
What about the defense? What type of scheme do they run, and how do you expect to attack the Stanford offense? Who are the stars to watch for on that side of the ball?
What about the defense? What type of scheme do they run, and how do you expect to attack the Stanford offense? Who are the stars to watch for on that side of the ball?
Frogs:
The Frogs run a 4-2-5 that is predicated on size up the middle and speed in the backend. The two defensive tackles are massive, athletic guys that can really close down running lanes, and Mat Boesen and Ben Banogu give Patterson two NFL-caliber pass rushers off the edge. At linebacker, Ty Summers and Travin Howard are two of the smartest football players you'll see, and Howard (as a former safety) is lightning quick, though undersized. The secondary is a veteran group -- Ranthony Texada is a shutdown corner but gets taken advantage of occasionally by big receivers, while Jeff Gladney is a bigger corner who has really come on late in the year. Niko Small and Nick Orr are two very good safeties, but Orr occasionally bites on play action which could be a problem for the Frogs against the Cardinal.
The Frogs run a 4-2-5 that is predicated on size up the middle and speed in the backend. The two defensive tackles are massive, athletic guys that can really close down running lanes, and Mat Boesen and Ben Banogu give Patterson two NFL-caliber pass rushers off the edge. At linebacker, Ty Summers and Travin Howard are two of the smartest football players you'll see, and Howard (as a former safety) is lightning quick, though undersized. The secondary is a veteran group -- Ranthony Texada is a shutdown corner but gets taken advantage of occasionally by big receivers, while Jeff Gladney is a bigger corner who has really come on late in the year. Niko Small and Nick Orr are two very good safeties, but Orr occasionally bites on play action which could be a problem for the Frogs against the Cardinal.
GMC:
How have the special teams played for the Frogs this year?
How have the special teams played for the Frogs this year?
Frogs:
KaVontae Turpin is so under-appreciated as a returner nationally, mostly because any team with half a brain isn't going to give him any opportunity to make a play. He is a weapon on special teams, a field flipper and a guy who is literally a threat to score any time he touches the ball. Punter Adam Nuñez doesn't have big leg stats, but he is so good at pinning teams inside the ten. Kicker is the question mark -- Jon Song was perfect on the season before getting hurt, so if he's healthy, I feel good, otherwise Cole Bunce was good in relief but maybe not quite as reliable. Neither guy has a ton of experience, period, so it's definitely still a question mark.
KaVontae Turpin is so under-appreciated as a returner nationally, mostly because any team with half a brain isn't going to give him any opportunity to make a play. He is a weapon on special teams, a field flipper and a guy who is literally a threat to score any time he touches the ball. Punter Adam Nuñez doesn't have big leg stats, but he is so good at pinning teams inside the ten. Kicker is the question mark -- Jon Song was perfect on the season before getting hurt, so if he's healthy, I feel good, otherwise Cole Bunce was good in relief but maybe not quite as reliable. Neither guy has a ton of experience, period, so it's definitely still a question mark.
GMC:
What are the warning signs the Frogs fans might see early on if the game is going poorly for TCU?
What are the warning signs the Frogs fans might see early on if the game is going poorly for TCU?
Frogs:
If Kenny Hill isn't accurate, is trying to do too much, or isn't using his legs, that's a bad sign. If KJ Costello gets a couple deep balls early, that's a problem. If Bryce Love is averaging eight yards a carry at the half, that's a problem. If TCU isn't converting third downs, turning it over, or not able to get the running game early... well, you know.
If Kenny Hill isn't accurate, is trying to do too much, or isn't using his legs, that's a bad sign. If KJ Costello gets a couple deep balls early, that's a problem. If Bryce Love is averaging eight yards a carry at the half, that's a problem. If TCU isn't converting third downs, turning it over, or not able to get the running game early... well, you know.
GMC:
What has to happen for TCU to get the win?
What has to happen for TCU to get the win?
Frogs:
Run the ball, run the ball, stop the run, give Kenny make-able throws, and let the playmakers work. Force a turnover or two and make KJ Costello uncomfortable.
Run the ball, run the ball, stop the run, give Kenny make-able throws, and let the playmakers work. Force a turnover or two and make KJ Costello uncomfortable.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess at how we get there.
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess at how we get there.
Frogs:
I am an unabashed homer, and I think this team is good enough and veteran enough to get the win. This one will be on the defense, and I expect them to show up. It will be a close game, a defensive battle, but TCU can contain Love just enough (i.e., 100 yards and two scores, haha) to make Costello have to make plays, and once he drops back, Boesen and Banogu will make life very hard for him. Give me the Frogs 24-23, with Kyle Hicks your offensive MVP and Boesen the defensive.
I am an unabashed homer, and I think this team is good enough and veteran enough to get the win. This one will be on the defense, and I expect them to show up. It will be a close game, a defensive battle, but TCU can contain Love just enough (i.e., 100 yards and two scores, haha) to make Costello have to make plays, and once he drops back, Boesen and Banogu will make life very hard for him. Give me the Frogs 24-23, with Kyle Hicks your offensive MVP and Boesen the defensive.
