Only three weeks ago the Cardinal was riding high after the comeback win over Oregon, and fans had designs on a playoff run. A road win over Notre Dame would vault Stanford into the top five, and the relatively soft Pac-12 would provide little resistance as the Cardinal would cruise through October and November and into the Pac-12 championship game.
That was the plan, anyway, but then things slowly dissolved. Even though the Cardinal struggled through the first three quarters against Notre Dame, an optimist could easily craft a narrative to explain away the eventual blowout loss. Stanford, after all, had had the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie before things got away from them in the 38-17 loss. The Optimistic Narrative says that the game was much closer than the score indicated.
While losing on the road to a potential playoff team like Notre Dame could never be called a bad loss, bad things can still come of losses like that, and in this case it was an injury to Bryce Love. On an innocuous 3rd and 21 play early in the fourth quarter while the game was still a game, quarterback K.J. Costello handed the ball to Love. Love was pulled down from behind, and his ankle (not that ankle, the other one) was twisted. As the best college football player of 2017 hopped off the field, two things happened in the Stanford Twitterverse. First, there was a collective flashback to the injury-riddled close to Love's 2017 season, and second, there was blame.
The question in everyone's mind was simple: Why was Love even on the field on 3rd and 21? If the idea was to run the ball and then punt, why ask Super Man to carry the kryptonite when anyone else could've handled it? The answer, of course, is equally simple. Great players always impact an opposing team's game plan, but Love is so great that he influences his own team's game plan. Coach David Shaw has already admitted that he sticks with the run for longer than he would with a mortal running back because he knows that eventually Super Man will break one, and I think something similar was happening on this play. Deep in his own territory facing an unmakeable 3rd down, the obvious decision for Shaw was to run the ball once and then punt. I bet his thought process went like this: "I know I have to run the ball, but if I give the ball to Bryce, you never know what might happen..."
We'll never know the truth, but we do know the result. Love sat out against Utah, his second missed game in what is rapidly becoming a lost season for him. (It's also looking more and more likely that he'll miss tonight's game against Arizona State.) That Utah game was disturbingly similar to the previous week's loss. The Cardinal pulled to within six points at 27-21 with a late third quarter touchdown, but it was all downhill from there, and they ended with a disheartening 40-21 loss.
Once again, it's easy to explain this defeat -- there were four Stanford turnovers, including an especially egregious 100-yard pick six in the early going. Turnovers are flukish, but there is one glaring and troubling similarity between these two losses. In each game, Stanford was within in a touchdown at the beginning of the fourth quarter, but in each game the opponent dominated the final fifteen minutes of play. This is particularly problematic when we think back to the outset of the season when everyone connected to the program repeated the same mantra: "We have to finish." Over and over we heard about last season's four losses by three points or less; over and over we were assured that the 2018 team would run through the tape, fight to the finish, close the deal. Those analogies don't apply to what's happened the last two games, when the Cardinal has been outscored 27-0 in the fourth quarter. That's not the kind of finish Coach Shaw was expecting.
Carrying all of that baggage, the Cardinal arrives in Tempe in desperate need of a win. There is good news. Aside from Love's lingering ankle injury (he'll be a gametime decision), the Cardinal is healthier than it's been in weeks. Linebacker Casey Toohill will return to action, and on the other side of the ball, the offensive line is getting closer to the lineup the coaches have been hoping to see, with Devery Hamilton sliding into the left guard spot.
That improved health on the offensive line will be critical, because Thursday night's game could be a shootout. CEO Herm Edwards oversees an impressive offense led by the big three of quarterback Manny Wilkins, wide receiver N'Keal Harry, and the best running back you've never heard of, Eno Benjamin. Wilkins is half way to his second straight 3,000-yard season, and Harry could end up being the first wide receiver selected in the 2019 NFL Draft, but the most frightening player of the three is Benjamin. Listed at 5'10" and 201 pounds, Benjamin runs bigger than those numbers, but he's more than just a bruiser. He's spent time over the past few seasons working with Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson to perfect a devastating spin move, so he's as adept at avoiding tacklers as he is at running them over. While you were lamenting the Cardinal's loss to Notre Dame nineteen days ago, Benjamin was setting an ASU record with 312 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a 52-24 thrashing of Oregon State. Considering the Cardinal's recent struggles stopping the run (178 yards yielded to Oregon, 272 to Notre Dame, and 222 to Utah), this is definitely something to watch.
It will be interesting to see if the Cardinal has made good use of the extra time off. Without question, they'll approach this game with some urgency. As difficult as these last two losses have been, Stanford still controls its own destiny. After beating Washington, Oregon looks like the class of the Pac-12 right now -- but their lone loss is to the Cardinal. If Stanford can win out, they will win the Pac-12 North and head to the conference championship game. On the other hand, if they lose tonight to Arizona State, it could be the beginning of the end.
But fear not! Stanford has not lost three consecutive games since the close of the 2008 season, long before we realized that any of this could be possible. I don't see another three-game losing streak today or any time soon. I think we'll see a high-scoring affair, but the Cardinal will prevail. I've got at 37-27 Stanford victory.
For another perspective, I give you Sam Ficarro from the ASU site, Devils in Detail. Read on...
GMC:
My first question has to be about Herm Edwards. At the time of his hiring, he was sometimes described as a CEO instead of a head coach. That’s a nice theory, but what has that looked like in practice? What’s his role with the team, and how have fans responded?
Devils:
I think fans have hopped aboard the “Herm Train,” as many have called it. It appears that Edwards is more of a game manager, deciding on when to go for it on fourth down, when to call timeouts, etc., while he lets the coordinators call the plays and run the units. The early start for Arizona State, which included a win over Michigan State and a top-25 AP ranking, certainly proved the doubters wrong. It’s been a bit of a struggle lately as the Sun Devils haven’t been able to build off good first halves.
GMC:
The Sun Devils are 3-3, but each of their losses have been by a touchdown. How good is this team, and are the expectations for the second half of the season?
Devils:
This Sun Devil team is a lot better than what people thought it would be. Coming into the season, I only saw four-five wins on the schedule. Fortunately for Arizona State, the Pac-12 South is dreadful and now I would say bowl eligibility is the goal now, which is something fans would have taken before the season started. With everybody in the division separated by just one game, Thursday’s game against Stanford is a big one.
GMC:
How has Manny Wilkins looked this year? His numbers seem a bit inconsistent from one game to the next, but he’s had some big games and seems headed for another big year. So how good is he, really?
Devils:
It’s been a strange season for Manny Wilkins. The first three weeks of the season, Wilkins threw the ball a lot as the offense couldn’t get a run game going. When ASU faced Washington in Week 4, that’s when the offensive philosophy changed to a run-first offensive style. Wilkins lives or dies with the deep ball, and after struggling connecting on deep passes for a large portion of the season, he was able to connect on some explosive plays against Colorado. That will be the key to the game for ASU.
GMC:
The Stanford defense has had trouble stopping the run lately, which makes me worry more than a little bit about Eno Benjamin. How exactly did he put together 312 yards against Oregon State, and how worried should Stanford fans be that he might do something similar on Thursday night?
Devils:
Eno Benjamin has been lights out for the Sun Devils after struggling the first two weeks of the season. Against the Beavers, Benjamin ran right up the middle between the tackles. That’s the type of runner he is. He’s more of a power back, but he can definitely accelerate once he gets to the second level of the defense. While 312 yards is nothing to scoff at, it was against Oregon State, one of the worst defenses in the nation. There’s no doubt that the Sun Devils will look to establish the run game early and often against Stanford.
GMC:
The Stanford offensive line has been struggling recently, which makes me wonder about the ASU defensive line and linebackers. What kind of scheme do they typically run, and who are the stars to watch for there?
Devils:
They’re running a unique 3-3-5 defensive scheme under first-year defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales. Gonzales displayed the same scheme when he was the defensive coordinator at San Diego State, where the Aztecs had great success. After the first two weeks, ASU had the best rush defense in the nation, but it’s been a big weakness ever since Week 3 when SDSU ran for over 300 yards. Even if Bryce Love isn’t at 100 percent, the Sun Devils still face a tall task in stopping Love. We all know what Love did to the Sun Devils last season. When it comes to players to watch, freshman linebacker Merlin Robertson has been an emergent star. Robertson is second on the team with 39 tackles, and he leads the team with 3.5 sacks. Another player to watch is linebacker Jalen Harvey. The wide receiver turned linebacker leads the team with 44 tackles. In the secondary, corner back Chase Lucas will be the one matched up on J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Lucas said this week that he needs to play better after he was burned by Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr. last time out.
GMC:
Most of Stanford’s offensive success this season has come when they’ve taken advantage of their big receivers and tight ends. How do you expect the ASU defensive backs to counter Stanford’s size?
Devils:
This will be a key area of focus for the Sun Devils. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is one of the best receivers in the country and has had an excellent season. I feel he deserves more national recognition. As I said earlier, Chase Lucas will be lined up against him, and that will be a tough matchup. I expect ASU to probably play a lot of zone defense rather than man-to-man so they don’t leave Stanford's weapons isolated on an island. It’s going to take a team effort from the Sun Devils.
GMC:
What are Arizona State’s keys to victory on Thursday night? What are the early signs that we should be watching for that might indicate things are going well for the Devils?
Devils:
On offense, ASU has had success in the first half [of games], but they’ve been unable to carry that over into the second half. If the Sun Devils keep the game tight, they will need to make the necessary halftime adjustments to finish the game off. Finishing has been what’s lacking from ASU. Obviously, they’ll look to establish the run game with Eno Benjamin, but it’s Wilkins’s ability to connect on explosive plays that will make-or-break the unit. On defense, it’s all about stopping the run. The Sun Devils have featured one of the worst rush defenses over the last month, and they will need to stop Stanford’s run game whether it’s Bryce Love or the backups. It will also come down to getting pressure on K.J. Costello, as it seems to me that Stanford is more a passing team this year (that probably has to do with Love’s nagging injuries).
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation as to how we get there.
Devils:
This is going to be a high scoring, tight game, and I’ll go with Arizona State, 34-27. The Sun Devils are undefeated at home this season and they definitely play better in the friendly confines of Sun Devil Stadium. I just feel with the bye week to regroup after a frustrating loss to Colorado will reenergize ASU to the win.
