It's been so long since the last time Stanford lost to Cal that some of the details, quite honestly, have blurred in my memory. I listened to the beginning of that game on a radio stream as I sat on the sidelines of my daughter's basketball practice, and I even had to apologize to some of the other parents when I started cheering for no reason (from their perspective) as Toby Gerhart opened the scoring with a 63-yard touchdown on Stanford's opening possession.
How long ago was this game? It wasn't televised in Southern California, so even though I was home for the closing moments of the game, I was still listening to the stream, standing nervously in front of my computer. The Cardinal trailed late, down 34-28 with 2:32 to play, but they were moving the ball on a drive that I was certain would clinch the Heisman Trophy for Gerhart. Andrew Luck dumped a pass to Gerhart in the left flat, as described by the KZSU Radio broadcast team, and Gerhart carried Cal defenders down the field, just as he had been carrying his Cardinal team all season long. With a 1st down at the Cal 13, the script was playing out just as I would've written it. Gerhart had 20 carries for 136 yards and four touchdowns, and I'm certain that everyone in the stadium, including both sidelines, knew his fifth was on the way. Scoring five touchdowns, all five of his team's touchdowns, in the final game of the season would've earned the cover of Sports Illustrated, gotten the attention of even the most jaded of East Coast Heisman voters, and clinched that elusive trophy. (It's worth noting that back then, just hearing "Stanford" and "Heisman" in the same sentence was fairly unbelievable; we hadn't yet lived through the disappointment of five runner-up finishes in nine years.)
The Heisman was there for the taking, and so was the Axe.
And then it was all gone.
Gerhart was clearly exhausted after his long run and long afternoon, so he stood on the sidelines catching his breath. But instead of running something safe and getting Gerhart back in the game on the next play, Coach Jim Harbaugh kept his foot on the pedal, as was his wont, and he sent in a pass play for Luck. (It's also worth noting that this was Luck's first season under center; even though we all saw his potential, he hadn't yet become the most talented quarterback of his generation.) Luck tried to force a ball into the crowded middle of the field, and it was intercepted. The game was over, the Axe returned the other side of the Bay, and, we'd later learn, Gerhart would not get his Heisman.
That was in 2009, and Cal fans will be happy to know that even though the Cardinal hasn't lost Big Game since then, even though the Axe seems to have found a permanent home on the Farm, even though there have been five Heisman finalists and three Rose Bowls since then, the disappointment of that game still lingers. I still wonder... No, that's wrong. I know what would've happened if Stanford had won that game, and no matter how long this current streak lasts, those feelings will never change.
So how long will this streak last? A couple of years ago I predicted that this run would last 17 years, but this year, for the first time since the streak began, Cal actually has a chance. Only a few years ago I was wondering how the Cal program had fallen so precipitously when recruiting to UC-Berkeley should be relatively easy -- great school, great location -- but the arrival of head coach Justin Wilcox, who should probably be the head coach at USC if the Trojan decision makers weren't so foolish -- has certainly turned things around for them. As a result, the gap between Stanford and Cal is probably smaller than it's been in years. Take a look at the Tale of the Tape...
| Stanford | Cal | |
| Record | 6-4 (4-3) | 6-4 (3-4) |
| Axes | 59 | 42 |
| Series Streak | 8 wins | 8 losses |
| S&P+ Ranking | 25th | 63rd |
| Points/Game | 28.3 (76) | 22.9 (110) |
| Points Allowed | 23.0 (41) | 21.1 (27) |
| Total Yards Per Game | 399.4 (65) | 350.8 (107) |
| Yards Per Play | 6.3 (21) | 4.8 (108) |
| Yards Passing Per Game | 294.4 (20) | 185.6 (100) |
| Yards Rushing Per Game | 105.0 (122) | 165.2 (65) |
| Yards Allowed Per Game | 422.1 (77) | 318.6 (14) |
| Rushing Allowed Per Game | 158.2 (57) | 134.2 (28) |
| Passing Allowed Per Game | 263.9 (111) | 184.3 (15) |
| Point Spread | -2 | |
| ESPN Win Probability | 66.8% | 33.2% |
It's still relatively early in Wilcox's tenure, but it probably won't be long until the offense catches up with the defense and Cal becomes a legitimate threat in the Pac-12 North. It's the defense, of course, that is the concern. Things were apparently still coming together in the first half of the season when they yielded 42 points to Oregon and a more-concerning 37 to UCLA, but the last three weeks have been impressive: they allowed just 10 points to Washington, 19 to Washington State, and 14 to USC. There is an argument to made that this is the best defense in the Pac-12; if they aren't at the top, they're at least in the conversation.
Even so, the Stanford offense is playing its best football of the season, and there's a good chance that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside could be back in action on Saturday. (There's also a good chance that this game isn't even played on Saturday due to air quality concerns, but that's not worth discussing here.) In addition to JJ's hopeful return to health, Bryce Love is probably the healthiest he's been since the second game of the season. With all that in mind, I'm looking for a 34-22 Stanford win.
For a look at things from the Cal perspective, I reached out to the folks at California Golden Blogs, and their answers to my questions are down below. (You can also read my answers to their questions over on their site.) Read on, and Beat Cal!
GMC:
USC has become one of Stanford’s biggest rivals, and since I live in Southern California, I found myself rather conflicted while watching Cal’s upset of the Trojans on Saturday night. Quite frankly, it would’ve been nice if a fault had opened up in the Coliseum turf and both teams had been swallowed up and fallen into a Dwayne Johnson movie. So how big was that win for Cal? What does it mean for the program?
CGB:
It's huge. Ending a streak that spanned multiple decades and to do it on their home turf was simply amazing. The players will carry this forever more than a bowl win, that they were the ones that ended the streak. For the program? Now you have some ground and evidence to backup your words in the recruiting picture.
GMC:
Speaking of the program, what’s the general feeling right now? Is Justin Wilcox the right coach at the right time for Cal?
CGB:
There are still questions regarding certain position coaches on the staff, but as a whole, the fan base couldn’t love the team more than it does right now. Winning draws fans, especially in the Bay Area which will lose one professional team this off season, and to be honest not many people are at football games at the Farm. That’s not to say our attendance has been great, but we’ve seen how packed it can get when you string together winning seasons and create a buzz like Tedford did. Wilcox has room to grow and being such a young coach, this might have been the perfect scenario for him to start his head coaching career and if this trend continues? I’m hoping he’s a Cal lifer.
GMC:
Which of the following is most likely to be found in Berkeley a week from now — Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, or the Axe? (Hint: It’s permissible to choose none of the above.)
CGB:
Ouch. BUT. At this current point in time? I’ll say the Axe. ;)
GMC:
I assume that quarterback Brandon Mcilwain is completely out of the picture, so tell me about Chase Garbers. What are his strengths and weaknesses?
CGB:
He’s a growing quarterback. What I mean by that is that he’s only a redshirt freshman. He’s only played 2 games where he was the ONLY quarterback that played. He’s also playing with arguably the most depleted wide receiver corps we’ve had the last 20 years. So all that aside, he’s limiting his turnovers, making his reads, and taking off with his legs when need be. He has the tools of what you want a modern college quarterback to be. So to answer your question, his strengths are his short passing game and legs, his weaknesses are his experience and the long ball.
GMC:
Flash forward a couple years. What are your expectations for the 2020 Cal Bears? Give me a quick recap of their season.
CGB:
The Bears are contending for the PAC-12 North title. A couple of tie breakers fall our way and we end up in the PAC-12 Championship game. My crystal ball won’t let me see past that and the tarot cards are short sighted.
GMC:
The 2018 Cal defense has earned quite a reputation. What’s been the key to its success, and who are the stars on that side of the ball?
CGB:
People keep mentioning that it’s a surprise and that they came out of nowhere, but the funny thing is everyone who is starting either started last season or was in the rotation. The numbers also show a huge improvement form 2016 to 2017, so it was expected from the fan base that the defense would also make that next step. The key to this defense, though, is the secondary and linebackers. The linebackers hold anything in front of them, and if you throw deep, the secondary makes sure nothing is beyond them. There are so many stars on this defense, but the main fantastic four are linebacker Evan Weaver, linebacker Jordan Kunaszyk, cornerback Camryn Bynum and safety Jaylinn Hawkins.
GMC:
You may be aware that Stanford has a ton of huge receivers. How do you expect the Bears to handle those matchups?
CGB:
Honestly? I have no idea. I would suspect if they are attached to the line you chop them and force them to change their timing and route placement, and if they’re in the slot you line up one of our safeties turned outside linebacker to make sure you can match speed and some height. The question is when they line up outside. We don’t have a big corner to match up, so I would think they always roll over a safety and play the placement of the ball rather than the wide receiver. Knowing that they would be running a spread offense with those wide receivers does limit the possibilities of where those wide receivers are running to, so hopefully that is the key in the defensive play calling.
GMC:
I’ve always enjoyed the fact that Cal fans seem to harbor a special hatred of Shayne Skov, but he’s been gone for quite a while. Who are some more recent Stanford villains? (By the way, it’s okay if you actually see all Stanford players as heroes.)
CGB:
Bryce Love? Christian McCaffrey? I don’t think there’s been a REAL villain since Skov, and for Skov it came down to that hit against Goff, which to this day was totally uncalled for. KJ Costello might become one starting this year, but let’s be real. We don’t like any of them.
GMC:
Two part question: First, what has to happen for Cal to beat Stanford. Second, does that scenario have anything to do with the End of Days?
CGB:
We have to score touchdowns and finish drives. That happened against USC, and had we scored in our opportunities in the WSU that game could’ve been different. We’ve shown an ability the last few weeks to put together drives that march into the opponents half, but stalls around the 45-35 forcing us to punt. We finish those drives and that changes how our defense has to play the following possession. Well, because of the fires, the haziness, and weird overcast will make it seem like a game at the End of Days.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation for how we get there.
CGB:
Let’s just assume everyone on the injury report stays on the injury report and no surprises that way, for both teams. This ends up in a defensive struggle that mimics the number of possessions from last year's game. (There were 12 total possessions last year.) After winning last week, I’m going to have to keep us going on a roll and winning this game 17-13. That’s how we’ve won the last 2 out of 3, and I don’t think we're changing that formula for now. As for an explanation? Stanford goes up 10-3 in the first half. Cal scores one touchdown in the third and one in the fourth. Stanford gets the field goal to go. Kicks off to the bears. Cal runs down the clock with 5 minutes to go and Costello never gets a game winning drive chance.
