With losses in four of the last five games, things are looking more dire for the Cardinal than in recent years. This is a program which has achieved a consistent level of success that can't be matched by too many schools, regardless of what the naysayers might naysay about it. But if you cite three Rose Bowl appearances as evidence of this success, you must also admit that the bar has been raised. A win on Saturday night will give the Cardinal six wins and clinch bowl eligibility, but that can't really be the goal anymore, can it?
In the old days, Oregon State would be a guaranteed victory, but things are looking up in Corvallis. The Beavers are 2-7 and have surrendered a troubling 44.6 points per game, which ranks 128 out of 130 teams, but they followed an epic comeback win over Colorado (after trailing 31-3 in the third quarter they rallied for a 41-34 overtime victory), with a strong showing in a 38-21 loss to USC. Tailback Jermar Jefferson has already gone over a thousand yards, and even though almost half of his yards came in two huge games against Southern Utah and Arizona State, he's still a cause for serious concern for the Cardinal defense. Containing him will be critical if Stanford hopes to get this win. Even considering all that, ESPN's Football Power Index predictor still gives Stanford a 96.4% of victory. I'm also feeling pretty good about things, and I'm confidently predicting a 31-21 Stanford win.
For a deeper look at Oregon State, I reached out to one of my oldest blogging colleagues, a mysterious soul known only by his equally mysterious alias, angry. His answers to my questions are below, and you can click over to angrybeavs.com to see my answers to his questions about the Cardinal. Enjoy.
GMC:
I heard new head coach Jonathan Smith at media day this summer, and he was impressive. He said all the things you’d typically hear from a new coach looking to turn a program around, but I believed everything he said and came away impressed. With a 2-7 record nine games in to his tenure, what are your thoughts on Coach Smith? What are your expectations for the next few years?
angrybeav:
Smith seems like the real deal. From the first game of the year vs. Ohio State, you could see the Beavers were playing harder and smarter, despite being completely undermanned at every position. The Nevada game confirmed that. Gary Anderson would have lost that game by 30 points, and the Beavs should have won on a chip shot field goal (that was missed). He's intelligent, detail-oriented, and a good communicator. The quarterback play has improved under his tutelage, so with a 4-star transfer (Nebraska) coming in next year, I expect this turnaround to happen sooner than people think. Next year they could have a five win team. Some of that will depend on the schedule and how strong the rest of the conference is, but right now I am thinking 4 to 5 wins and in a lot more games. Three to four years out I'm expecting a perennial mid to upper tier program. That might seem like biased crazy talk, but Smith is that promising. He's had a few bad calls and needs to learn. For example, the aforementioned game winning field goal attempt at Nevada -- the Beavs had timeouts and downs and probably should have taken shots running the ball before attempting that kick. Issues like this must be ironed out this year.
GMC:
What’s going on at quarterback? Will Conor Blount be back from his concussion, or can we expect to see Jake Luton? How do those two compare, and how will that decision impact the game?
angrybeav:
Blount will not return this weekend, so Jake Luton will start. There are rumblings that Blount is transferring at season's end. This is unfortunate, because he has a clear path to the backup job next season, and that's a perfect fit for him. I don't think he is a Power Five caliber starting quarterback. But, if he wants to give it a shot somewhere else all the power to him. My guess would be a Mountain West level school. As to how Blount and Luton compare: Blount is more mobile, throws a better deep ball, and is a savvier game manager, where as Luton relies more on raw abilities. He has a better arm but with less accuracy on deep balls. Luton shines on the intermediate level pass and good protection. If either isn't there he falls apart. The Beaver wide receivers are a strength, and that unit has made both players look serviceable this season.
GMC:
Jermar Jefferson has been a bright spot this season. How good is he, and how good do you expect him to be over the next few years?
angrybeav:
Jefferson is excellent. USC tried recruiting him late in the cycle, so that gives you some idea. I had him ranked as the second best prospect in our last signing class. His strengths are agility and a knack for finding the crease. The sky is the limit for Jefferson if he remains healthy. He's running behind a poor to mediocre line and running to a 6.1 average with 12 touchdowns, so being in the picture for elite national honors isn't out of the question if the Beavers can put a great offensive line in front of him.
GMC:
Speaking of the next few years, jump into your time machine and give me a brief synopsis of the 2020 Oregon State Beavers.
angrybeav:
Oh man...we have the youngest roster in the Pac 12. I feel like this is the case every year...disgruntled transfers, medical retirements, and coaching turnover have all killed the development of this program, so it seems we've been perpetually rebuilding. Barring injuries and transfers, a lot of the young talent should blossom by then. The 4-star transfer quarterback will be a senior, Jonathan Smith will have several more recruiting cycles, and his excellent supporting staff will have two more years to develop and coach up their own guys. It bodes well. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll be in the 8 win range with a +/- 1 variance. People might equate that with the Mike Riley years, but this feels different. There is more upside with Smith. In Riley's good years, you have to realize the Pac (10 at that time) was very weak. Smith is going to be able to compete in a better conference. I don't see us getting to the level of the Ducks, Stanford, or Washington, but I do see us being the pesky team just a notch below, and if that's the case and things break their way, there could be special seasons every few years.
GMC:
Stanford has struggled in the trenches this season, usually losing the battles along the line of scrimmage. What are the current states of the Oregon State offensive and defensive line?
angrybeav:
I wouldn't worry too much about this. Our lines are worse than Stanford's, although I have to say they play with heart, so if Stanford thinks they can just show up then there might be a problem. Our offensive line isn't great, but they're better than our defensive line. Both lines lack depth, which has been a real problem deep in games. Our (defensive) sack and turnover numbers are abysmal. Both units have played with effort, heart, and tenacity. This is a testament to the staff because they are undermanned every game and could have easily given up. The only way there is a problem here is if Stanford takes them for granted.
GMC:
Whether offense or defense, give me two or three under-the-radar players who might have a big impact on Saturday’s game?
angrybeav:
That's a tough one...maybe Art Pierce. With Jefferson getting all the publicity, Pierce is under the radar this year, and he's an excellent back (7.6 average, an 80 yard touchdown, and 4 total touchdowns in limited action). Isaiah Dunn in the secondary. The defense has been much better since Jeromy Reichner returned so he could be a difference maker, but his health has been an issue all year. Trevon Bradford can be a game changer in the passing game and on special teams.
GMC:
What has to happen for Oregon State to pull of the upset?
angrybeav:
This is pretty simple. The offensive line has to give Jake Luton time to find open receivers. The wide receivers are OSU's strength. Jefferson will then have lanes to run. Our defense has been gaining confidence and hanging in games, so they just need to keep doing that and hope the offense can play to their strengths. Our kicking game is a liability, so expect to see aggressive calls on 4th down -- these could wind up being a difference if they go the Beav's way.
GMC:
Finally, give me your prediction. Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
angrybeav:
I'm going 30-20, Stanford. The Beavers have good wide receivers, and I think Jake Luton will connect with them enough to make this a game, but ultimately he is so immobile and turnover prone under pressure, that I think Stanford forces him into a few key turnovers. Expect a fumble touchdown or pick six out of Luton that breaks open the game. Our kicker is a liability as well, so I'm expecting a missed field goal as well. Fun times! Luckily the pain should end in a year or two.
