If it feels familiar for the Cardinal to be preparing for the Sun Bowl minus one of the best players in program history, it's because the same thing happened two years ago when a healthy Christian McCaffrey incited a firestorm of controversy when he decided to stay home from El Paso in order to prepare for the NFL draft. This year, of course, it's Bryce Love who has opted out, though the circumstances are different. It's been more than a year since Love was completely healthy, so his concerns are understandable, and we've also gotten used to this by now. Draft-eligible players skip out on minor bowl games all the time.
But back to the Sun Bowl. This year Stanford draws the Pittsburgh Panthers, a 7-6 team that finished 6-2 in conference, good enough to win the weaker of the two ACC divisions and earn a spot opposite Clemson in the conference championship game. That game went as expected, with Clemson cruising to a 42-10 win on their way to the College Football Playoffs, but that game only gives a partial answer to an important question.
How good is Pitt?
At first glance, a 7-6 record might indicate a mediocre team, but according to one algorithm, they had the sixth-toughest schedule in America. (I like Bill Connelly's approach towards determining strength of schedule better than the others; here's a detailed explanation of his thinking.) With that in mind, coupled with Stanford's #26 ranking in strength of schedule, the Panthers' 7-6 could be more impressive than the Cardinal's 8-4.
Let's first look at Pitt's games against the current top 25: #12 Penn State, #8 Central Florida, #20 Syracuse, #3 Notre Dame, and #2 Clemson. The Panthers were crushed by Penn State, UCF, and Clemson, but they played Notre Dame tough in a 19-14 loss and beat Syracuse, 44-37.
The most interesting and relevant game there is Notre Dame. Just two weeks after dominating Stanford, 38-17, the Irish struggled against Pitt, trailing 14-6 until deep into the third quarter, and not gaining their first lead until a game-winning touchdown provided the final margin with 5:43 left in the game. The Pitt formula in that game was simple -- stop the run. The Irish rushed for just 80 yards that day, their lowest total of the season, lower even than the 88 they gained against Clemson in the Cotton Bowl.
Given the Cardinal's struggles running the football this season, even when Love was on the field and marginally healthy, I'm guessing quarterback K.J. Costello will be throwing the ball an awful lot, so let's see if we can find a game where an opponent simply gave in and kept the ball in the air against the Panthers. That's the interesting thing -- only twice has a Pitt opponent logged more passing attempts than rushes (Duke and Wake Forest), and Pitt won both of those games. (In case you're wondering, Stanford has eight games in which Costello has passed more times than handed off. Expect more of the same in the Sun Bowl.
I don't worry too much about the Stanford offense against the Pitt defense, but there are huge concerns about what might happen when the Panthers have the ball. Statistically speaking, the Panthers have the 16th-best rushing offense in the country, and the Cardinal rushing defense ranks ninetieth. While Stanford is without a thousand-yard rusher for the first time since 2014, the Panthers boast two -- Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. They've been quite the one-two punch for Pitt over the past four seasons, combining for almost 5,000 yards, but this season has been special for the two seniors, as Ollison was named 2nd team All-ACC and Hall was on the 3rd team. Their biggest moment was probably in the 52-22 blowout of Virginia Tech in November when the pair combined to rush for over four hundred yards. If we see anything approaching that level of production on Monday, it promises to be a long afternoon for the Cardinal.
All of that being said, I still feel good about the Cardinal's chances in this one, mainly because I feel so good about the Stanford offense. It's been fun to watch Costello improve over the course of the season, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he's used the last four weeks of practice to improve further. This is an offense that should score 30 points every time out, especially in games like this one, where the opponents will likely be scoring as well. So I've got Stanford winning in an old-fashioned Texas shootout -- 38-31.
For a deeper (and more knowledgable) look at the Panthers, I reached out to Chas Rich from PittBlather.com. He was kind enough to work with me at the last minute, so take a look at his answers below and follow him on Twitter.
GoMightyCard:
At first glance, it looks like Pitt is better than its 7-6 record might indicate. Would you agree with that?
Pitt Blather:
Maybe? Pitt has solid wins, and with four of the losses coming against top-10 teams (and two playoff teams) there is a case to be made. That said, the level by which Pitt was blown out in 3 of those same 4 losses is hard to overlook.
GMC:
This looks like a run-heavy offense, featuring two thousand-yard backs, Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. What can you tell me about these two players?
PB:
Ollison and Hall are both seniors who arguably have gotten closer in style as they have matured. Ollison used to be much more of a bruising, bulky back who ran straight ahead in the middle. He could have ended up more as a fullback. Hall, meanwhile was a shiftier and more elusive back looking to bounce outside whenever possible, avoiding the direct contact. Ollison has slimmed down and become faster -- while still willing to go straight at defenders. Hall, meanwhile has gotten stronger and has become much more willing to turn upfield sooner and absorb contact. Hall is still more of the big play, breakaway back.
GMC:
Are there any key players missing for Monday's game?
PB:
There are no seniors sitting out for the NFL draft, but there is a big loss that has been a big reason for the sudden demise of Pitt's offense in the last two games of the season. Center Jimmy Morrissey went down at the very end of Pitt's win over Wake Forest. With Morrissey out, the pass protection (not particularly good in the first place) has been non-existent, and the run blocking has been a real struggle.
GMC:
What can we expect from the Pitt defense? They seem to be strong against the run, but how might they fare against Stanford's big receivers?
PB:
Pitt's run defense is decent, but tends to be ignored by opposing teams because the opportunities all come from throwing the ball. Pitt's secondary has improved over the course of the year, but is very susceptible to giving up the big play. That is by design, as Narduzzi's defense relies on one-on-one match-ups with receivers. That means little zone and very rare double coverage. The Stanford receivers should have good chances -- assuming the El Paso weather doesn't start whipping the wind wildly (see, also the Sun Bowl of 2008).
GMC:
Finally, what's your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation as to how we get there.
PB:
*in my best Marlon Brando* I see the game end... 3-0, for someone. That's my dream. That's my nightmare -- swirling winds rendering the game a ground slog with neither side able to do much. Misery and another 10 year ban from El Paso.
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And now, here's the tale of the tape...
| Stanford | Pitt | |
| Record | 8-4 (6-3) | 7-6 (6-2) |
| Record vs. Top 25 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| All-Time Series | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Series Streak | 1 loss (1932) | 1 win |
| S&P+ Ranking | 27th | 67th |
| Strength of Schedule | 6th | 26th |
| Points/Game | 29.5 (50) | 26.1 (76) |
| Points Allowed | 25.0 (45) | 30.7 (82) |
| Total Yards Per Game | 399.5 (62) | 368.8 (91) |
| Yards Per Play | 6.2 (17) | 5.6 (56) |
| Yards Passing Per Game | 293.7 (16) | 140.0 (123) |
| Yards Rushing Per Game | 105.7 (120) | 228.8 (16) |
| Yards Allowed Per Game | 425.4 (82) | 408.9 (72) |
| Rushing Allowed Per Game | 149.2 (43) | 195.4 (90) |
| Passing Allowed Per Game | 276.2 (123) | 213.5 (48) |
| Point Spread | -4.5 | |
| ESPN Win Probability | 71.3% | 28.7% |
