There is an old coaching adage: Make your last game, your best game.
There is another old coaching adage: Just win, baby!
Guess which one applies to Stanford's victory over Pitt in the 2018 Sun Bowl.
Minor league bowl games are typically difficult to predict, because so many variables can affect what happens on the field. Is one team thrilled to be there while the other is disappointed not to be playing in a higher profile game? Did one team focus on the game plan during the days prior while the other enjoyed the accompanying festivities? Did one team bring its full roster while the other left some home for various reasons?
The answers to some of these questions are public knowledge, but others are rarely revealed, and we're left to speculate based on what we see on the field. What we knew as Stanford and Pitt took the field on New Year's Eve morning was that the Cardinal offense would be missing five starters. Wide receiver Trenton Irwin had suffered a knee injury early in Big Game, sadly ending his Stanford career; running back Bryce Love was at home in Palo Alto recuperating from a surgical procedure that prevented him from flying; tight end Kaden Smith had declared for the NFL draft; left tackle Walker Little was injured; and guard Nate Herbig was also absent, having declared for the draft as well.
Even with all of those key pieces missing, it was still surprising, and eminently depressing, to watch K.J. Costello and the Stanford offense open the game with four consecutive three-and-outs, gaining just three total yards on those four possessions.
The most troubling aspect of these early struggles was the difficulty Costello was having. The junior quarterback entered the game riding what had unquestionably been one of the most successful seasons any Stanford quarterback had ever had. No, he wasn't on the Heisman level of Jim Plunkett or Andrew Luck, but he had vastly exceeded even the lofty expectations engendered by his 2017 debut. When head coach David Shaw spoke about his quarterback last summer, he mentioned the need for Costello to improve his completion percentage to at least sixty percent, citing that metric as one of the key components for success in his West Coast offense. Costello hit that mark with ease, finishing the regular season at 66.4% and only logging two individual games (against USC week two and UC-Davis week three) below sixty percent.
Costello was so good in 2018, a season in which Stanford's vaunted run game shockingly disappeared, that there were some whispers that he might even consider the NFL draft this year, rather than next. (Most observers believe he'll return for his senior season.) In the Stanford single-season recored book, only Steve Stenstrom has thrown for more yards, and only Andrew Luck has thrown more touchdowns. If you look at the career passing marks, you'll find Costello's name in the top ten of virtually every category -- yardage (10th), touchdowns (7th), 300-yard games (5th), completion percentage (3rd), and quarterback rating (3rd).
Some felt this game would be Costello's final moment in the sun for 2018, even while missing two of his favorite targets and two of his top linemen, but that wasn't the case. On those first four drives he was a woeful 1 for 7 for two yards, and he absorbed an eight-yard sack that doomed the second possession. He would finish the game with a shocking stat line: 6 for 17 for 105 yards and zero touchdowns. It ended a personal streak of sixteen straight games with a passing touchdown, and it was far and away the worst game of Costello's career. ESPN's QBR measure's a quarterback's success on a scale from 1-100. Costello had six games of 80 or higher this season, topping out with a 95.3 for his brilliant performance in the overtime win over Oregon. He posted a mind-boggling 3.4 against Pitt, not just the lowest of his career by almost forty points, but almost certainly one of the lowest QBRs ever for a winning quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Pitt offense was also struggling. The concern entering the game was that Pitt's running back tandem of Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall might run wild against the Cardinal's porous run defense, and even though it took a while for the Panthers to put together a scoring drive, there were early signs that the game could be heading in that direction. The offense looked like what we used to see from Stanford in the old days: the Pitt offensive line was getting a good push, they were opening holes with consistency, and running backs were taking advantage with regular runs of five to fifteen yards a pop.
When Hall ripped off a 47-yard gash up the middle to the Stanford 10 in the closing minute of the first quarter, things begin to look bleak. After two carries from A.J. Davis brought up 3rd and goal at the 4, it seemed like the touchdown was guaranteed. Everything we had seen up to that point told us that Pitt would simply hand the ball off on 3rd down, then again on 4th down if necessary, and take a 7-0 lead. But instead they tried to get tricky and went to the pass, and sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett did the one thing he shouldn't have -- he took a seven-yard sack and the Panthers had to settle for a chip shot field goal, turning their backs on what had looked to be a sure touchdown.
Not long after that the Cardinal offense came to life. With 11:39 to play in the first half, Shaw and offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard dipped deep into the playbook for an odd tight end screen to Colby Parkinson. Costello flipped a little sidearm pass to Parkinson a few yards behind the line of scrimmage, and the big tight end rumbled ahead for a nine-yard gain, more than doubling Stanford's previous offensive output. Two plays later Dorian Maddox pounded his way up the middle for an inspiring 15-yard gain, and suddenly the Cardinal offense was going downhill for the first time with a 1st down on the Pittsburgh side of the field. When Costello hit J.J. Arcega-Whiteside on a crossing pattern for 29 yards to the Pitt 5, it was as if we had all awoken from a confusing dream. Soon enough Cameron Scarlett was diving into the end zone, and Stanford led, 7-3. Everything, it seemed, would be fine.
Pitt's ensuing possession, however, raised the level of concern once again. This time it was Pickett, who hit an open Taysir Mack for 14 yards on the first play of the drive, then ran for 14 himself on the next. He later completed a pass for ten yards to Maurice Ffrench to convert the only 3rd down of the series, then ran for eleven yards of his own on the next snap. Darrin Hall finished things out with a six-yard touchdown run, and just like that the Cardinal trailed again, 10-7.
The drive had been effortless, and when the Stanford offense sputtered in response, punting the ball back to the Panthers with 1:21 to play in the first half, things were looking bleak again.
How bleak? After that first half touchdown drive, Stanford's next four possessions looked like this:
- 4 plays, 13 yards, 1:11
- 3 plays, 3 yards, 2:08
- 3 plays, -12 yards, 2:16
- 4 plays, 15 yards, 1:43
Sure, the Pitt offense was almost as bad, managing just a field goal during that stretch, but with the Stanford offense looking as confused as it had at any point during the season, that 13-7 deficit seemed more like a mountain than a molehill.
But then something amazing happened. The Cardinal took over at their own 22, and Scarlett ran the ball for five yards on the final play of the third quarter. He then ran for four more yards on the opening down of the fourth quarter, bringing up 3rd and 1.
These plays, of course, used to be guaranteed 1st downs for the powerful Stanford offense. The offensive line would dominate the beleaguered defensive front across from them, and the tailback would plunge ahead for an easy 1st down. Those days, of course, are long gone, as the team has struggled in short yardage for a couple of years now. But on this 3rd and 1, Scarlett and his blockers stuck to the 2016 script and picked up the 1st down with a yard to spare. With their first 3rd down conversion of the game, the Cardinal had moved the chains for the first time in about half an hour, and it felt like they were breathing for the first time since before the half.
Minutes later Costello hit Arcega-Whiteside on a sideline out for twelve yards and another 1st down, and then he went to him on the next play on an intermediate crossing route that Arcegatron turned into a 49-yard gain to the Pitt 3.
Those two receptions were the final catches in J.J. Arcega-Whiteside's Stanford career, a brilliant three years that began with a game-winning, streak-stretching, Rose Bowl-silencing 4th quarter touchdown against UCLA in 2016 and ended with his name near the tops of several different Stanford receiving lists. No one caught more touchdown passes in a single season than the 14 he totaled this year, and only Ken Margerum's 32 career touchdown receptions outrank J.J.'s 28. And here's something we've been tracking all year long -- that 12-yard reception on this drive pushed him over a thousand yards on the season, making him the first Stanford player this century to top that milestone, the last being Troy Walters in 1999.
As impressive as all that is, it's a personal memory that I'll carry forward whenever I think of Arcega-Whiteside. As I sat with him at lunch during Pac-12 Media Day last summer, I mentioned that my friend's son was one of his biggest fans, and I asked if he would record a quick video message for him. "For sure, let's do it!" He looked into my phone camera and recorded a simple message thanking a young boy for rooting him on from afar, reminding me that these players we root for on Saturday afternoons are much more than the numbers they wear and the statistics they amass. So while we may never again see J.J. outleap a defender in the end zone for another Stanford touchdown, he certainly won't be forgotten any time soon.
Another thing which won't be forgotten is the touchdown that finally capped this drive. After Arcega-Whiteside drew a pass interference penalty in the end zone (natch), Shaw got tricky again. Stanford likes to run quarterback options just as much everyone else in the country, they just don't usually let the quarterback keep the ball. On 1st and goal, Costello faked the handoff to Scarlett and decided to keep it himself -- and here's where things got dicey. Costello had made the wrong read, and he was met almost immediately by defensive lineman Dewayne Hendrix. Initially it looked like just a wasted down, but when the ball popped into the air, it looked like disaster. But against all odds, the ball squirted directly into Scarlett's arms just as he crossed the goal line for his second touchdown of the game.
When asked after the game to explain his touchdown, Scarlett gave a perfect deadpan response: "Which one?" When the reporter clarified, Scarlett didn't break a smile. "Just like we drew it up." Indeed. Just like they drew it up.
When the defense bent without breaking on the following Pitt possession, forcing a 55-yard field goal attempt that never had a chance, suddenly it felt like old times. With a 14-13 lead and just 7:55 left in the game, the Cardinal stood just two or three 1st downs from victory. You know how this goes -- the Cardinal has a 4th quarter lead, David Shaw plays it conservatively, and the opponent comes back and wins. (Oh, wait -- this has never happened.)
And it didn't happen here. The Cardinal ran the ball six times, gaining 22 yards, picking up two 1st downs, and burning 4:24 and one Pitt timeout in the process, then punted the ball back the Panthers, giving them the ball on their own 4 yard line with just three and a half minutes to play.
No one will confuse the Pitt offense with Alabama's or Oklahoma's, but it should be noted that while the Stanford offense seemed to be stuck in a Bird Box simulation for much of the afternoon, the defense was performing well, gathering strength and confidence as the game pushed towards its final moments.
On 1st down linebacker Casey Toohill stuffed Darrin Hall for a one-yard loss, then two incompletions brought up a 4th and 11 that might've ended the game. Perhaps sensing the moment, defensive coordinator Lance Anderson dialed up a blitz, sending five defenders at the young Pitt quarterback in hopes of ending things dramatically, but Kenny Pickett delayed any celebrations, finding Maurice Ffrench over the middle for a fifteen-yard gain. That, however, would be the Panthers' final 1st down of the season. Four plays later the Cardinal took over the ball -- and the game -- after a 4th down stop at the 25.
From there it was purely academic. While the announcers correctly pointed out that Pitt's only chance was to let the Cardinal score so they could get the ball back, Shaw was thinking the same. After the Panthers used their final timeout with 1:33 to go, Shaw reached into his admittedly shallow bag of tricks and pulled out a reverse to freshman Michael Wilson. Afterwards Shaw explained that the play had come with some very specific instructions. "I told him not to fumble, not to go out of bounds, and not to score." Wilson checked off all three of those boxes, sweeping around the right side for nine yards and a 1st down, then sliding to the turf to keep the clock running. Costello knelt twice after that, and the Cardinal had its 14-13 victory.
The cynical point of view holds that a game like the Sun Bowl has no practical ramifications beyond adding statistics to a season that actually ended weeks ago, but a bowl game is more than just another line on the schedule. More and more, it gives a glimpse of the future, and that final play tells us that David Shaw has high expectations for Wilson. Cameron Scarlett didn't get to a hundred yards the way Bryce Love did on the same field two years earlier, but he was selected as the Sun Bowl MVP and ran hard enough to make us look forward to watching him get 200 carries or so in 2019. On the other side of the ball, freshman defensive end Thomas Booker, who came on strong towards the end of the season, earned an award of his own, walking away with the Jimmy Rogers, Jr. Trophy as the game's best lineman.
More than anything else, though, a bowl game is about saying goodbye to those who have served the program and represented the University throughout their playing careers.
The first time I saw Bobby Okereke, he was a wide-eyed high school senior walking around an open practice a few days before the 2014 Rose Bowl. With a backpack on his shoulders, eye glasses perched on the bridge of his nose, and a name tag stuck to his chest, he could've been a visitor on ProFro weekend. Watching him grow into one of the Pac-12's best linebackers as he wrecked havoc in the middle of the field over the next four autumns was a treat. I'll miss him.
Alijah Holder played a great game in El Paso, but more importantly he had a great career in Palo Alto. As solid as he was at cornerback, what I'll remember most about him was the love he had for his twin brother. A reporter at Media Day asked him to name some of the best receivers he'd defended in the conference. When he hesitated for a moment, I jumped in. "What about that Holder kid from San Diego State?"
Alijah's face positively glowed. "That Holder kid? Man, that Holder kid is something else." He was speaking about Malik, a wide receiver for the Aztecs, and reflecting on their matchup the previous year. Later when he was asked to reflect on his time at Stanford as he prepared to embark on his final season, Holder briefly mentioned his personal struggles while rehabbing a knee injury, but focused mainly on last year's San Diego State game. He cited that matchup against his brother's team as a memory he'd always cherish, and his answer reminded me of something important. That loss to the Aztecs was one of the more frustrating Stanford games in recent memory, a stinging defeat that left an impact throughout the season, but for Holder it was something much more than that. He was confident and mature enough to separate those two emotions -- disappointment from the loss and the pride he took from competing against his brother. It was an important lesson. As invested as we are as fans, it's important to remember who it is we're actually rooting for -- young kids playing football and living out their dreams.
Beyond that, there are others that will be missed. The professional precision and consistency of wide receiver Trenton Irwin, the Heisman-worthy punts of Jake Bailey, and, obviously, the transcendent talent and inspirational courage of Bryce Love.
It's tempting to look at the Cardinal's 9-4 season and dwell on the narrow losses and wonder what might have been. With three separate trips to the Rose Bowl in our recent memories, there's a tendency to dismiss a season that ends in a lower-tier bowl game, but that point of view diminishes what these young men have given us not only on Saturday afternoons, but during the rest of the week as well.
After all, what speaks more to the character of this program, an eye-popping touchdown from Bryce Love, or the message he sent America when he chose to return for his Stanford degree so that he could one day practice medicine? J.J. Arcega-Whiteside's one thousand receiving yards, or the two-minute video message he recorded for a young fan? An early season loss to San Diego State, or Alijah Holder's pure love for his brother?
Considering this perspective, I wouldn't change a thing about this program, and I already can't wait for the 2019 season. Go Mighty Card.
