Well, here we are. After losing three of the first four games of the season for the first time in more than a decade, the Cardinal arrives in Corvallis today at a crossroads. This game can't make the season, but it can certainly break it. A win will mean more than just something positive to break up a long stretch of negativity, it will also give the Cardinal some hope. A loss, on the other hand, which would be David Shaw's first to Oregon State, would immediately cast the season in a different light a make a bowl game close to impossible.
Normally, it might seem like the trip north is coming at a perfect time. Oregon State has struggled for the past few seasons, so perhaps the hapless Beavers will offer up the easy win that this program so desperately needs. There are more than a few problems with this line of thinking, however. Most obviously, we haven't seen a lot from the Stanford offense that would make us believe that there are any easy wins in the near future. Also, word came this morning that quarterback K.J. Costello, who didn't look right after banging his throwing hand on an opposing helmet early in last week's game, won't be playing this Saturday. Davis Mills will start in his place. For a team that needs to find offensive consistency, switching quarterbacks each week is less than ideal. The hope is that Mills, a clearly talented player, has benefited from a taking most of the reps in practice this week and will play well.
We also got word that senior left guard Devery Hamilton, who appeared to have been injured on the (meaningless) last play of the game last week, won't play either. In this fifth game of the season, the Cardinal will be starting its fifth different combination along the offensive line. Again, less than ideal.
Beyond all of this, there's the reality that the Cardinal has had some issues in Corvallis in the past, even when things were brighter. In 2013 the eventual conference champion Cardinal struggled in an ugly 20-12 win over the Beavers, and two years ago Stanford pulled out a miraculous 15-14 victory that should never have happened. Reser Stadium isn't exactly a house of horrors for the Cardinal, but it's not like the Rose Bowl, either.
With all this in mind, I'm sure this game will be close -- and ugly -- throughout. Given the gravity of their situation, however, I believe the Cardinal players will come together. The defense will continue the improvement we saw last week, and the offense will do just enough to come away with a 20-13 win.
For a look at the other side, I again reached out to my colleague angry, who runs angrybeavs.com, easily the most active fan site in the Pac-12. (You can take a peek at my answers to his questions over there.) So here's angry...
Go Mighty Card:
Even though Oregon State won just three games total in 2017 and 2018, from the outside it feels like the program is beginning to turn things around under Coach Jonathan Smith. Would you agree with that? What's the general feeling surrounding the program right now?
I assume you mean 2018 and 2019 since Smith wasn't the HC in 2017. But even so, I'm not seeing evidence of a turnaround yet. Recruiting has been about the same as under Mike Riley and Gary Andersen. Smith has brought in several high profile transfers, so maybe that gives the illusion of an uptick in recruiting, but the core class has been about the same talent level as in the past. Smith has won only 3 games out 15, and 2 of those wins were versus Southern Utah and Cal Poly. Smith's "signature win" and only Pac-12 win was at Colorado. Smith cost the Beavers two wins with poor decisions at Nevada and at Hawaii. So I can't agree with that statement at this time, though I do think Smith has the right mindset and is a good fit. I just think he's in over his head right now. He has to learn faster on the job, in general, and he has to learn faster from past mistakes specifically.
GMC:
Quarterback Jake Luton has gotten off to a nice start this season. What are your expectations for him this weekend and through the rest of the season? What are his strengths and weaknesses?
Luton's strengths are the short to intermediate pass and forcing the ball to wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins. That might sound snarky, but it's not. He's known for having a big arm and being great at the long ball, but he's way better around 10 to 15 yards. He's also good at getting the ball to Hodgins even though everyone knows that's where it's going. Hodgins has been making Luton look good. He (Hodgins) is an NFL talent who might leave early after this season. Luton's weakness is he doesn't go through his progression, locks in on his primary receiver, doesn't have any touch on dump off passes to the running backs, has no mobility, and throws a lot of balls to defenders (they haven't been intercepted yet, which is deceptively boosting his stats).
GM:
As I look at the rushing stats through three games, I get flashbacks to some of the great Oregon State running backs who ravaged Stanford defenses in years past. Tell me about Jermar Jefferson, Artavis Price, and B.J. Baylor.
Jefferson is smooth, patient, and a good pass catcher. He's the type of runner who always seems to find the right hole and is always leaning forward when he goes down, getting extra yards. He has good speed but lacks the top gear. Pierce is a bit more violent and ferocious a runner...probably slightly more top end speed, too, and he's also a good receiver. Baylor has been surprising showing nifty moves and good receiving skills, but it was against Cal Poly, so I'm not sure on him yet. Calvin Tyler, the fourth running back, also looks excellent.
GMC:
Isaiah Hodgins looks to be the primary receiver. How is he used in the offense? Which other receivers should we watch for?
Hodgins is used in a traditional sense. He's the primary wide receiver and a big play threat. Think Keenen Allen. The other receiver to look out for is Tjoyn Lindsey and Koly Talyor. Lindsey is a 4-star transfer from Nebraska who had an excellent offer sheet and looks the part on his film. He's looked pretty good so far in limited use, but had an injury. He should be back for the Stanford game and be a 1B option to Hodgins's 1A status. Taylor is a nice slot receiver who is steady but also has had injury problems. Champ Flemings came on big last weekend, but he's very undersized and it's to be seen if he holds up to Pac-12 talent. Flemings is interesting and worth a watch.
GMC:
What about the defensive side of the ball? Who are the stars on defense, and how do you expect the Beavers to attack the beleaguered Stanford offense?
There are no stars on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker Avery Roberts (transfer from Nebraska), linebacker Hamilcar Rashed, and safety Jalen Moore are probably the three players who have stood out the most. We had a 4-star transfer from Oklahoma, Addison Gumbs, who looked great, but he tore his ACL and will be out for the year. The defense has been bad overall. They're young, but they're also bad. The last game versus Cal Poly they showed growth, so we'll see if that continues or it was just a weak opponent.
GMC:
This is the first time in several years that this game appears to be in doubt. What does Oregon State have to do to win this game?
They have a few intangibles working for them in that the students are back on campus for this game, there is rain in the forecast, they have confidence after finally winning a game, Stanford coming off Oregon and a possible trap game for them with Washington next, etc. So there's that. But in terms of what they have to do it's pretty simple: Can't turn the ball over and have to stop Stanford's run game. We all know Stanford will try to run all over the Beavs, so can their D figure things out and finally learn how to play as a unit and stop it? That's going to determine the outcome because the Beavs' offense is solid and should be able to score enough to win.
GMC:
Finally, what's your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation as to how we get there.
I'm going 30-28, Oregon State. It's a bit of a gamble pick, and I might have my tail between my legs Sunday morning, but I just have a feeling something weird is going to happen. It's all the intangibles I mentioned above coupled with Stanford looking vulnerable. The Beavers' players know they have maybe three shots at wins on the entire schedule, and I think they have this pegged as one of those opportunities. In terms of how it happens: Jefferson runs for 120 and 2TDs, Luton throws for 2TDs, and we mix in a FG (That comes to 31 so our kicker misses an XP...he's horrible so it's within reason). Stanford likely runs all over the Beavs' D, but to some degree that will help us shorten the game, which is why I'm only giving Stanford 28 points. If Stanford has the passing game going it could get ugly, but I'm going with this scenario. See you next year, if we both make it, Hank.
