When Stanford and Central Florida agreed to a home-and-home series in September of 2014, it looked like a great deal for the Cardinal. Yes, the Knights had been 12-1 in 2013, culminating the season with a win over #12 Baylor in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, but when they dipped to 9-4, it seemed like they were just another mid-major that had enjoyed a brief taste of success before falling back to the pack. Stanford beat them easily in the first game of the series on the second week of the season in 2015, and when UCF went winless that season, it looked like the deal would be an unmitigated success. Surely the Knights would wallow in mediocrity for a few years until the Cardinal would come calling in 2019 to pick up an easy win and hopefully impress some Florida recruits.
Clearly, it hasn't worked out that way. Scott Frost burned the Stanford football program once again. Two decades ago he left the Farm for stardom at Nebraska, and in 2016 he took the job as head coach of the Knights and proceeded to turn UCF into a football powerhouse. They rebounded to 6-7 in 2016, but then they shook up the world in 2017, capping off an undefeated season with a 34-27 win over #7 Auburn in the Peach Bowl and laying claim to a mythical national championship. Sure, Alabama beat Georgia to win the actual national championship that season, but with both of those teams finishing with a loss, the undefeated Knights pronounced themselves the true champions, complete with rings and a parade.
In a move that did not stun Stanford fans, the typically loyal Frost left UCF for Nebraska, but Josh Heupel arrived in 2018 and kept the train rolling, extending the winning streak to 25 games before falling to #11 LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. Technically, I suppose Central Florida is still a mid-major, but it's probably more accurate to describe them as a Power-5 plus 1 team playing in a mid-major conference. Put simply, they're good, and they're here to stay.
So instead of offering a guaranteed win, the Knights present one of the toughest tests the Cardinal will face this season. Just a week after succumbing to the high-paced USC offense, Stanford has to travel across three time zones and into suffocating humidity to face an offense that's faster than anything they've ever seen. While they'll take comfort in the fact that starting quarterback K.J. Costello will be back behind center, there are still concerns elsewhere as both starting tackles, Walker Little and Foster Sarrell, are out (Little is confirmed out for the season), and the offensive line depth chart looks younger and thinner than it's been in years. When you add the travel, the heat, the humidity, and the forecasted tropical storm, there are an awful lot of variables at play.
The biggest variable, of course, involves the performance of the Stanford defense against the Central Florida offense. As has been the case throughout the David Shaw era, even when the Cardinal defense has been at its best, the best solution to this problem is for the offense to put together clock-eating drives that keep the ball away from the Knight offense. The ugliness of last week's final score obscures the fact that even with a backup quarterback making his first career start, the Cardinal was able to maintain a decisive edge in time of possession, 33:29 to USC's 26:31. I think we can expect to see a similar edge this Saturday, and with Costello back in the lineup we should see some more points as well.
The possibility of a deluge makes it difficult to predict a score, but if the Cardinal can put together one long drive per quarter, that will be enough to keep the Knights' potent offense off the field. I'm going with Stanford for a 24-21 win.
For a look at the other side, I reached out to Adam Eaton, host at the Knightline Sports Network, and he was kind enough to answer a few questions about Central Florida. (I also appeared on the Stanford preview edition of Adam's Knightline podcast, so take a listen if you're so inclined.) Anyway, here's Adam...
Go Mighty Card:
How big is this game for the UCF program?
Adam Eaton:
It is big in the sense that it gives UCF another opportunity to play a “P5” opponent on national TV. UCF is now in a position where, despite success on the field the past two years, they are continually fighting for respect off of the field. Based on the national media and their narrative towards UCF (and the G5 as a whole) the Knights have zero margin for error against P5 teams. I think this galvanizes the program and allows them to play with a chip on their shoulder. So, in that sense, this game is big.
GMC:
Is it correct that Dillon Gabriel will be in at quarterback? What can we expect to see from him?
Eaton:
You will see Dillon Gabriel on the field at some point. When and how? That is a better question, and one in which only Josh Heupel knows. I would not be surprised to see multiple quarterbacks take a snap for the Knights this Saturday. They also have Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, who started the opener, but did not play in Week 2. Word is that Wimbush wasn’t medically cleared to play, although the extent of the situation is unknown. This week UCF also cleared redshirt sophomore Darriel Mack, Jr., to return to practice. Mack replaced McKenzie Milton (knee injury) last year and started the final two games of the year. He was the odds-on favorite to be a starter until he injured his ankle over the summer. He missed all of fall camp, so his readiness to play is still unknown, but he knows Heupel’s system better than anyone.
Gabriel is a decorated left handed quarterback out of Hawaii who owns all of the state records (surpassing Tua Tagovailoa), however he is a true freshman. Thus, you can expect to see flashes of what makes him great mixed with freshman inexperience. He has a good arm and does have some mobility, so the dual threat option is still in the playbook. It will be interesting to see how much of the playbook Heupel opens up when he is in the game.
GMC:
The UCF offense doesn’t seem to be as pass-heavy as it was in 2017. Is that a trend you see continuing this year?
Eaton:
Absolutely. Coach Heupel typically uses the run to set up the pass. This, combined with tempo, is the secret sauce to the UCF offense. Now, having said that, UCF will take its fair share of shots down the field as well. UCF is committed to spreading the ball around to its playmakers and finding schematic advantages.
GMC:
Five different running backs have seen significant action thus far for the Knights. Have any of them stood out, or is this a true committee situation?
Eaton:
It is a true committee, and it is the strength of the offense. The starter is Greg McRae, who was a 1,000-yard rusher in 2018. He is a hit the hole, one cut and go type runner. He probably sets up his blocks better than any back on the team. Adrian Killins is a senior speedster, and despite his size (stands only 5’9”), UCF is not afraid to run him up the middle. He is a true homerun threat, and if he gets the edge, he has the speed to outrun just about anybody. Otis Anderson is the Swiss Army knife of the offense. He will line up in the backfield, in the slot, out wide, and even in the wildcat. He is a dynamic playmaker, and UCF looks for ways to get him the ball. You will also see Bentavious Thompson (redshirt sophomore) get some touches as well. He has largely played in the 4th quarter when the game has been decided, but the scary thing is that many around the program think he is actually the most talented running back on the roster.
GMC:
Who is your pick to have a big game for the UCF offense?
Eaton:
I mentioned all of the running backs, and any of them can erupt for a big run at any time. I should also mention wide receiver Gabriel Davis, who, at 6’3” and 200lbs, is a tough cover. He is a big-time receiver who will play on Sundays. If I have to go off of the radar, I’ll pick wide receiver Tre Nixon. He is a speedster who plays on the outside, and when he makes plays, they are typically long gains or TDs.
GMC:
With the Stanford offensive line looking a bit thin, I’m concerned about the UCF front seven. What kind of scheme to they run defensively, and how can we expect them to attack K.J. Costello and the Stanford offense?
Eaton:
UCF runs a base 4-3 scheme under defensive coordinator Randy Shannon. This season UCF has been able to get a lot of pressure on the quarterback with the defensive line and linebackers. On the defensive line, UCF will run a lot of stunts to push the pocket and disrupt the quarterback. The defensive line was considered a question this year, largely because the group is young and inexperienced. However, through two games, the depth of this group has been a real strength. You will see UCF rotate guys in and out on the line, almost like a hockey line shift, to stay fresh. Shannon isn’t known for exotic blitz packages, but he will bring pressure in certain situations, particularly if the line isn’t able to get pressure
GMC:
Who are the stars on the defensive side of the ball?
Eaton:
Free safety Richie Grant is the leader of the secondary. He is a ball-hawking safety and a big hitter who isn’t afraid of the moment. On the defensive line, sophomore Randy Charlton will make plays all over the field.
GMC:
What’s your prediction for the game? Give me your best guess at final score and your explanation for how we get there.
Eaton:
I think the question of who plays quarterback for UCF will impact what happens in the game. Assuming true freshman Dillon Gabriel takes the majority of the snaps, I think you will see Heupel call a controlled game and find opportunities to take chances down the field. With the playmakers on offense, and the tempo, I think UCF will be able to put points on the board. If the offensive line for Stanford is banged up, the battle for the line of scrimmage with the UCF defensive line will be the key matchup. I think it will be a one score game at some point in the second half, but factoring in the travel and humidity, I think UCF holds Stanford off and wins 34-21.
