We've been here before, but only a few times in the David Shaw era. Four times, to be exact. Only four times before today has a Shaw team walked into Stanford Stadium as an underdog. Not only does that say something about the strength of the program over the past nine seasons, it's a short enough list that we can look closely at each game.
September 15, 2012 vs. #2 USC (-11.5)
The Trojans were huge favorites here because they had an experienced future NFL quarterback, Matt Barkley, and the Cardinal had Josh Nunes. He be replaced by Kevin Hogan before the year was out, but Nunes threw two second half touchdowns against USC as the defense stifled Barkley and the Trojans, and Stanford won, 21-14.
November 8, 2013 vs. #3 Oregon (-10.5)
Considering that the Cardinal was also ranked in the top five at the time and had beaten the Ducks in Eugene the year before, it's preposterous to imagine that they were double-digit dogs here, but this was when Oregon seemed unbeatable. The Stanford defense came up with arguably the best three quarters it's ever played, and this game was a 26-0 blowout into the fourth quarter. Yes, Oregon scored three times in the final stanza, including a flukish blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, but the 26-20 final score didn't tell the story. This was thorough domination.
November 11, 2017 vs. #9 Washington (-8)
This game was all about Bryce Love, as he aggravated his previously injured ankle but still rushed 30 times for 166 yards and three touchdowns to lead the unranked Cardinal to a 30-22 win over the Huskies.
November 25, 2017 vs. #9 Notre Dame (-3)
Love didn't find the end zone on this night, but sophomore quarterback K.J. Costello had a career-high four touchdown passes as the Cardinal outscored the Irish 21-0 in the fourth quarter to claim a decisive 38-20 victory.
What do all four of those games have in common? Each time David Shaw's Cardinal has been a home underdog, they've come up victorious. This certainly doesn't guarantee victory today, but it gives reason for hope. Even though the Ducks are eleven-point favorites and will likely be picked to win by most, if not all, of the experts, this is still a game the Cardinal can win.
Before I look deeper into the game, this seems like a good time to address an issue that was brought up here last week. For those who have been visiting this site with any consistency over the past ten seasons, you know that I'm optimistic with respect to Stanford's football fortunes; for those who know me in real life, you realize that this matches my personality. I don't wear this like a badge, but rather state it as a point of information. In the real world, my glasses are always half full; with respect to Stanford Football, I watch the games with Cardinal-colored glasses.
This is the only way I can do it because this is who I am. Readers have countless options when they want information about the Cardinal, and I realize that mine is but a small voice in the conversation; there certainly can't be a single fan who only gets Stanford news through this site. Anyone who's dug deep enough to find my corner of the internet already enjoys mainstream coverage at places like ESPN and the Athletic, reads the excellent and thoroughly objective material put out by R.J. Abeytia for the Bootleg, and listens to Troy Clardy's TreeCast podcast. I don't compete with any of those outlets because I don't want to. Also, how could I?
Instead, I've allowed this site to become an extension of myself. Because the team struggled so mightily during my time as a student, there's a part of me that's still amazed by what we've seen over the past decade, so it's difficult for me to be critical of any of it. So, for example, when people are critical of David Shaw or even lobby for his firing, my natural reaction is to look at things from the other side of the issue. Yes, there have been times when I've disagreed with a play call or wondered about a personnel decision, but I've also been lucky enough to go to three Rose Bowls in the past seven years. For me, that counts for a lot.
I am only one small voice, but I've chosen to be the voice of optimism and to speak for those fans who hope for and expect the best. We do, after all, need to hear all the voices.
So when a reader responded to last week's game preview by criticizing me for making "another pathetic prediction," it wasn't new. Comments like this come my way all the time, whether they're posted here or fired at me from the Twitterverse. My response is similar to what I say to a student who complains when I give a homework assignment in class -- it's like going to the beach and complaining about the sand. This is who I am.
So on to this week's pathetic prediction. Here's why I think Stanford will beat Oregon.
The Ducks have played one important game, really, and they lost that game. While it's true that they've scored 112 points over the past two weeks, that was against Nevada (77-6) and Montana (35-3). So while Stanford has been wandering through the woods without a torch, Oregon has been beating up on Hansel and Gretel. It looks nice, it pads the stats, but how impressive is it, really?
The most impressive thing the Ducks have done, then, came in their opening week loss to Auburn. After jumping out to a 21-6 lead and looking impressive while doing it, Oregon allowed the Tigers to finish the game with three unanswered touchdowns. A statement win became a statement loss, so the Ducks had no choice but to batter their next two overmatched opponents to make up for it.
That being said, the Ducks are still a formidable opponent. Quarterback Justin Herbert has done nothing to jeopardize his expected status as a first round pick in next spring's NFL draft, completing 73.3% of his passes, including eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the running game looks as healthy as ever, with four different backs averaging more than five yards per carry, led by Travis Dye and C.J. Verdell.
The key to this game will be whether or not the Stanford defense can get back to its roots, and I don't mean the Party in the Backfield -- although that would be nice. Stanford defenses under David Shaw have always been built using a top down philosophy, something that stems from Shaw's father, and he mentioned this during his press conference this week. More than anything else, the defensive backs must keep the Oregon receivers in front of them. They won't be able to shut down the Oregon passing game, but it's imperative that when Herbert completes his passes -- and he will complete passes -- those balls are caught in front of Stanford defenders who then make their tackles. If Herbert is forced to make yardage in small bites rather than huge chunks, things well go well. If the defensive backs are able to execute that game plan, freeing linebackers to spend more time rushing the quarterback, things will go even better. I didn't sit in a single defensive meeting this week, but I guarantee that was item one on the agenda.
Offensively, things will certainly be better than the last two weeks. Costello clearly looked a bit rusty last week, and that wasn't just because he had sat out the USC game. Remember that his work during the off-season was severely limited, and that he's essentially throwing to a brand new set of receivers. Their chemistry will get better each week, and I expect to see some of the results tonight.
I expect a big game from Costello, and a big win for the Cardinal. Stanford 27, Oregon 24. It's who I am.
