It's been three years since Stanford and Arizona last saw each other on the field of play, and a lot has happened for both teams since the Cardinal's 34-10 win over the Wildcats in 2016. In 2017, while Bryce Love was rewriting the Stanford record book, Arizona's Khalil Tate was doing the same thing down in Tucson. To say that he was a running quarterback would be an understatement, as he actually had more 200-yard rushing games than Love did. Love set a Stanford mark with 301 yards rushing against Arizona State on September 30th, and the following weekend, in his first game as the starter, Tate topped that with 327 against Colorado.
Tate would finish the season with 1,411 yards rushing, and while he's only combined for 430 yards over the past two seasons, he still presents a unique challenge for the Stanford defense and a unique viewing opportunity for Stanford fans.
The reality, though, is that this game will be decided by the Stanford offense. There isn't much news concerning the health of the football team. There will still be three freshmen starting on the offensive line, and the situation has gotten so desperate with that unit, with only six available scholarship players at the position, that tight end Tucker Fisk has been taken reps with the linemen this week and been assigned an alternate number should he have to line up there as an emergency replacement. And should things progress beyond that, the team announced this week that they've added Jake Koffman to the roster, solely based on size and athleticism (he's 6'2" and 252 pounds and formerly threw the discus on the Stanford track team) and living situation (he rooms with Fisk, Foster Sarell, and Colby Parkinson.) Yes, we're taking volunteers now.
The larger concern -- or at least an equal concern -- is at quarterback. Davis Mills continues to be out (raising speculation about his longterm health prospects), and David Shaw was uncomfortably non-committal about K.J. Costello's status throughout the week, first describing him as "doubtful to questionable" before elevating him to "questionable to probable." The most recent update on the situation says Shaw will make a game-time decision between Costello and third-stringer Jack West. If you've been paying attention, you realize that this is pretty important. But even if Costello's in the huddle this afternoon, this doesn't guarantee a whole lot. He's played in only three games this fall, and at no point has he resembled the quarterback we were used to seeing in 2018.
It's foolish to make a prediction given all this uncertainty, but I'm nothing if not foolish. Last Thursday's loss to UCLA was not just a low-point for the season, but a low-point for the David Shaw era, and I expect to see a bit more fire from the offense this week, enough to get into the end zone a couple of times. The defense, meanwhile, has been consistent of late. Lost in the UCLA debacle was the fact that the defense played with toughness and energy in the second half, doing enough to keep the Cardinal in the game had the offense come to life at any point. So it will be a narrow win, but a win nonetheless. Stanford 20, Arizona 19.
For a look at the other side, I reached out to Shereen Rayan from ZonaZealots. (You can read my answers to her questions over at their site.) Anyway, here's Shereen...
GMC:
What’s going on with Khalil Tate? How healthy is he, and what can we expect to see from him on Saturday? Also, I’m curious about how his game seems to have changed. After bursting on the scene in 2017 as one of the best running quarterbacks we’ve ever seen, he hasn’t come close to replicating those rushing numbers either last year or this. What’s happened?
Zona Zealots:
Tate is healthy and is starting on Saturday and we have a great backup also healthy in Grant Gunnell, a true freshman out of Texas. Nothing is "going on" with Khalil Tate, he has coaches who call plays who aren't or haven't geared towards his strengths. Also the offensive line lost experienced players that wanted to work with him and his style, lack of plays designed for him haven't helped. He has no time to pass the ball and in the last two games his receivers couldn't get open. Teams are blitzing with seven players and the O-Line isn't able to hold them all back. So Tate suffered from a high ankle sprain all of last year and played on it, just like Tua suffered. But he just got surgery and is not playing. Lack of depth at QB had Noel Mazzone give Tate pass plays and he excelled at that, I think he had the third-most passing yards in the Pac-12, but folks just remember his rushing from the year before. If the Tate and O-Line and game plan from the Texas Tech, UCLA and Colorado wins shows up, there's no doubt you will see a Tate that will remind you of 2017. Arizona's made silly turnover mistakes that cost them both of the past two games, some on Special Teams.
GMC:
It seems like we might see freshman quarterback Grant Gunnell also. What are his strengths and weaknesses? How the Wildcats balance these two quarterbacks?
Zona Zealots:
You may, but only if Arizona falls behind and it looks hopeless. Gunnell is a bit taller, stays in the pocket longer and has a ton of potential. He is second string, Tate is first. Tate would have gone back in the USC game if things started looking good, but they didn't and Sumln left Gunnell in for practice.
GMC:
Who are some of the other stars on the offense?
Zona Zealots:
Running Backs JJ Taylor, Bam Smith and Gary Brightwell, both Smith and Brightwell have been out hurt for the last two games and were a major part of the Wildcats wins in the three weeks prior. Also Nate Tilford has shown is sheer strength at RB and if the coaches would play him earlier that would be fantastic. Also Cedric Peterson connects well with Tate, so watch for him.
GMC:
The Stanford offense struggled tremendously last week. How do you expect the Arizona defense to attack them? Who are the stars on that side of the ball?
Zona Zealots:
On Defense Colin Schooler, Jace Whittaker and Trevon Mason have been fantastic at making stops. Also Jalen Harris can come out of nowhere and JB Brown just recorded his first sack, if he plays he will be wanting more. They will be dominant early on and if the offense gives them some rest they can maintain that through the game, that would be the goal. In the first five weeks, I think Arizona was number one in interceptions so look out for that.
GMC:
What has to go right for the Wildcats to come away with the win on Saturday?
Zona Zealots:
Players show up with a new attitude, coaches adjust the play-calling to Tate's strengths, O-LINE learns how to defend the blitz, and NO TURNOVERS.
GMC:
Finish this sentence: It’s going to be a long afternoon for the Wildcats if…
Zona Zealots:
They turn over the ball, they can't stop the pass, and the O-Line can't give enough time for Tate to pass the ball and holes to run through. WRs need to be able to get open and the offense needs to have an outlet to pass to short if the play breaks up.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
Arizona 27, Stanford 24
I think it's going to be close, I think Arizona has a shot to stop Stanford's offense, but I still think the teams may balance each other out. I predict a big day for Tate as he has to redeem himself and his team does to get the fans to support them.
And now, here's the tale of the tape...
| Stanford | Arizona | |
| Record | 3-4 (2-3) | 4-3 (2-2) |
| Record vs. Current Top 25 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| All-Time Series | 16-14 | 16-14 |
| Series Streak | 5 wins | 5 losses |
| SP+ Ranking | 63rd | 45th |
| Strength of Schedule | 16th | 56th |
| Points/Game | 20.0 | 32.4 |
| Points Allowed | 27.6 | 34.1 |
| Total Yards Per Game | 330.9 | 491.6 |
| Yards Per Play | 4.8 (99th) | 5.9 (47th) |
| Yards Passing Per Game | 216.0 | 292.4 |
| Yards Rushing Per Game | 114.9 | 199.1 |
| Yards Allowed Per Game | 402.4 | 469.6 |
| Rushing Allowed Per Game | 140.3 | 159.4 |
| Passing Allowed Per Game | 262.1 | 310.1 |
| Point Spread | -1.5 | |
| ESPN Win Probability | 65.8% | 34.2% |
