What a difference ten days can make. If you watched the loss to UCLA last week, you endured one of the worst offensive performances of the David Shaw era. Led by a third-string quarterback, the Cardinal finished with only 198 total yards, earned just 11 first downs, and averaged a paltry 1.8 yards per carry. With Davis Mills declared out, and K.J. Costello ranging from doubtful to questionable throughout the week, it appeared Stanford could be without its top two quarterbacks once again as they face the Arizona Wildcats.
Making matters worse, it appeared that Arizona's game-changing quarterback was finally healthy. The Stanford defense had struggled to contain UCLA's dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but Arizona's Khalil Tate is the prototype for that model. I don't have the resources to verify this, but I'm willing to bet -- and bet a lot of money -- that Tate is the only player in NCAA history to throw for 400 yards in one game and rush for 300 in another. (Think about that for a minute.)
So it wasn't that much of a surprise when Arizona took the opening kickoff and marched deep into Stanford territory to open the scoring with a 29-yard field goal, but it was something of a surprise that K.J. Costello passed his pregame evaluation and jogged out with the offense as Stanford's starting quarterback for the first time in more than a month. With the season hanging in the balance, his return couldn't have come too soon.
It only took a few plays for Costello to remind everyone what they had been missing while he was gone. On 3rd and 9 from his own 36, Costello dropped back and looked over the middle for wide receiver Simi Fehoko. It was a simple post pattern, but Fehoko managed to get a step ahead of his defender, and that was enough. Showing no signs of rust, Costello lofted a perfect pass with just the right amount of zip and just the right amount of touch. It fell perfectly into his receiver's arms for a 39-yard gain. Four plays later Cameron Scarlett bulldozed his way into the end zone and the Cardinal had a 7-3 lead.
After the teams traded two punts, the Wildcats pulled Tate in favor of freshman quarterback Grant Gunnell, a move that seemed to be based on game plan, not in response to Tate's play. Gunnell is a prototypical quarterback, and during his first drive, especially, the Cardinal defense had difficulty adjusting to the new style of play he brought to the Arizona offense. With Gunnell in the game, the Wildcats essentially ran two plays -- inside handoffs to a running back or slant patterns over the middle. Tailbacks J.J. Taylor and Nathan Tilford combined for 31 yards and Gunnell completed all three of his passes for 34 yards as the Wildcats marched the length of the field without once seeing a 3rd down. Arizona 10, Stanford 7.
Stanford's next possession seemed like a flashback to 2018. After Connor Wedington returned the kickoff just across midfield to the Arizona 49, Costello led a seven-play drive that featured seven passes. The first two were incomplete, but the next five went for 11 to Austin Jones, 19 to Colby Parkinson, 5 to Connor Wedington, no gain to Tucker Fisk, and finally, on the first play of the second quarter, 14 yards to Brycen Tremayne.
Tremayne's reception was spectacular, and it was another reminder of last season. Costello has always excelled at putting the ball where only his receiver can make a play, and so it was here. Tremayne had lined up in the right slot before running a post pattern, and Costello's pass initially seemed to be out of reach, even for the 6'4" receiver. But just as the ball seemed about to clang off the crossbar in the back of the end zone, Tremayne extended his right hand and picked it out of the air, OBJ-style, and managed to get a foot in bounds for the touchdown. (Note: Tremayne has touched the ball three times this year, and all three have been touchdowns: two receptions and a recovered blocked punt.)
After the Stanford defense came up with a three-and-out, the offense came back out, and with Arizona suddenly more conscious of the passing game, Scarlett went to work. With his beleaguered offensive line suddenly channeling the spirits of Austin Peat and David Yankey and David DeCastro, Scarlett had massive lanes to work with and gobbled up 61 yards on four carries, the last eight coming on his second touchdown of the day, giving the Cardinal a 21-10 lead.
With the offense already exceeding the output against UCLA, it's understandable that Stanford fans might have started feeling a bit comfortable, but the Wildcats weren't ready to give up. Tate returned to the huddle, and on the second play of the series he zig-zagged his way through the Cardinal defense for a 57-yard touchdown.
The lead had dwindled to 21-17, but the manner in which Arizona had scored was much more troubling than the seven points they had put up on the board. Your eyes have told you that Stanford gives up too many big plays on defense, and the numbers support that perception. Football Outsiders ranks all 130 Division I defenses (Stanford ranks 69th overall, in case you're wondering), and one of the ingredients they throw into the stew is something called Explosive Drive rate. This measures the percentage of opponents' drives that average at least ten yards per play. In other words, is the defense giving up big plays? If you've been paying attention this season, it won't surprise you to learn that Stanford ranks 95th out of 130 teams in this category. On this particular drive, the Wildcats covered 75 yards in two plays. Not ideal.
The good news, however, is that the Stanford offense was playing better than it had at any point in the season. Not only were the players on the field showing more confidence with Costello back in the huddle, the coaches were feeling frisky also. On 2nd and 1 from the Arizona 44, Shaw and offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard eschewed the easy 1st down and instead asked Costello to take a shot down field. Once again, Costello took advantage of good protection and waited for his slot receiver, Simi Fehoko to sprint past his defender towards the right pylon. Costello's pass was perfect, and Fehoko dove for the cone for a 44-yard touchdown and a 28-17 lead.
Osiris St. Brown entered with more fanfare, Michael Wilson had more early success, but it's beginning to look like Fehoko could be Stanford's next star at wide receiver. He's just as big as J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, but he's much faster. After the game Shaw mentioned that they've timed Fehoko at 4.3 for the 40-yard dash, which would put him among the fastest receivers in the NFL. That combination of size and speed will give nightmares to defensive coordinators up and down the conference for the next year or two.
At this point the game officially became a track meet. There was only 4:36 left to play in the first half, but that would be enough for two scoring drives. First Tate and his Wildcats used eight plays (but only 2:55) to cover 75 yards for another touchdown to cut the lead to 28-24, but then the Cardinal answered with a quick 75-yard drive of its own that netted a field goal and opened the lead back up to 31-24.
How good was the Stanford offense in the first half? Their six possessions had produced 327 total yards along with four touchdowns and a field goal, and the 31 points scored was as much as any previous game this season. It was all quite stunning.
The tempo slowed down a bit in the second half, but the tension didn't ease. Arizona's first drive was troubling. For the second time in the game, this time with Tate at the controls, the Wildcats travelled the length of the field without seeing a 3rd down. They covered 73 yards in eight plays, and the game was tied at 31.
In the moment, this was cause for great concern, as there was no reason to believe that Arizona wouldn't continue to score at will, but those would be the last points the Stanford defense would give up on the afternoon. In a game full of reminders of Stanford's past, Lance Anderson and his defense gave us yet another as they played their best football in the second half for the third game in a row. The Cardinal defense has allowed only 23 total points in the second halves against Washington, UCLA, and Arizona, recalling a hallmark of Anderson's best defenses which routinely shut teams down after the break.
But since we didn't know this at the time, the following Stanford possession felt important. With the game trending towards a shootout, the feeling was that the offense couldn't afford not to score, so Costello obliged. Freshman Austin Jones continued to drop coming attractions, particularly on this drive. He carried the ball three times for twenty yards on this series, adding to what would be one of the better games of his young career. He'd finish the game with 7 carries for 32 yards, bringing his season totals to 24 for 134, numbers that project to somewhere in between what Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love produced during their first years on the Farm. It would be foolish to assume Jones will one day stand alongside those two Stanford legends, but it says a lot about how the coaching staff feels about him right now.
The drive finished with Costello's third touchdown of the day, his second scoring strike to Fehoko. On 2nd and 1 from the 14, Fehoko split out wide to the right and stutter-stepped his way around his defender. Costello fired the ball as soon as he saw that Fehoko had gotten behind his man, and -- as usual -- he put the ball up high enough to allow his big receiver to make a play over the small defender. Fehoko leapt up and snatched the ball out of the air for a touchdown and a 38-31 lead.
With the Stanford defense suddenly locking down the Wildcats -- their next three drives totaled 11 plays for 14 yards -- the Cardinal had several opportunities to open up a lead and take control of the game, but the offense began to sputter for the first time all afternoon. After two three-and-outs, the Cardinal finally got a little momentum when Paulson Adebo intercepted a pass at the Stanford 37 to squelch an Arizona drive and jumpstart the Cardinal.
Adebo's interception was similar to plays we've seen him make over the past two seasons. When Adebo has been beaten, it's almost always been on deep balls, but he remains dominant on shorter routes like this one. Tate was looking to hit wide receiver Boobie Curry on an out pattern, but Adebo read the play immediately and jumped the route, gobbling up the interception with ease.
Cameron Scarlett took over from there, catching a pass from Costello for eleven yards on the first play of the drive, and then carrying five times for 21 yards to help move the ball deep into Arizona territory. Scarlett's last carry appeared to be a touchdown as he lunged across the goal line. The team began to celebrate, the band began to play, and the announcers proclaimed Stanford's fourteen-point lead -- but no official had raised his arms. Scarlett was (correctly) ruled down just short of the goal line, giving the Cardinal 3rd and goal, just about six inches short of the end zone.
The confusion and premature celebration following Scarlett's near-touchdown had bled precious time off the play clock, so by the time Costello brought his team to the line of scrimmage, he had only a handful of seconds left to survey the defense and get into the correct play. When he snapped the ball with one second remaining on the play clock, the defense was able to take advantage and jump the snap count. Costello handed the ball to Scarlett, who was engulfed immediately for a four-yard loss -- but then he flipped the ball back to Costello for some reason, who then got two of the yards back. It was chaotic, but after the game Shaw assured us that we wouldn't be seeing that play again.
It was disappointing to settle for the field goal after being so close to a touchdown, but a ten-point lead with 6:11 to play in the game felt almost insurmountable, and when the defense stopped the Wildcats on 4th and 13 from the Stanford 49, it was finally time to relax. Yes, the ensuing Stanford possession did little more than run some clock and force Arizona to spend their final two timeouts, but when Arizona got the ball back they were still down by two scores with only 2:43 to play. From there the Stanford defenders did what they were supposed to do -- they kept the ball in front of them and forced Tate to take yardage in small bits rather than big chunks.
It took them eleven plays to get to the Stanford 30, but with the clock under thirty seconds, Tate had no choice but to take a risk. Unfortunately for him, he challenged the wrong defender. He looked deep down the left side line, but Adebo had his man locked up in coverage. He turned to the ball at just the right time, adjusted to its path, and grabbed his second interception of the game. All that was left was for Costello to take a knee and the game was over.
If you had been in a coma for the past two months and missed the opening seven games of the season, nothing about this game would've surprised you. K.J. Costello was just as efficient as he was last year, completing 30 of 43 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and the offense was balanced, as Cameron Scarlett rushed for 102 yards and eleven different players caught passes. (Actually twelve, if we count the pass that deflected back into Costello's hands. But let's not talk about that.) If you didn't look closely at the numbers on the backs of the offensive linemen, you'd have assumed that everything was business as usual with the Tunnel Workers Union, also, as the running game was strong and Costello wasn't sacked a single time.
Things also looked good on defense. There was one long run from Tate, but aside from that he was generally contained throughout the afternoon, and Stanford's star, Paulson Adebo, nabbed two interceptions and was later named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week.
In short, this was what we were expecting to see this season. As a fan, it's always tempting to look back and wonder what might have been. If this team hadn't been so ravaged with injuries, surely they would've beaten UCLA, and they would've been competitive with USC and Oregon. In fact, it isn't hard to imagine a scenario in which the Cardinal is in the thick of the Rose Bowl race.
But there's no sense in that, really. Given everything that's happened -- injuries to two different quarterbacks and five different offensive linemen -- it's actually kind of amazing that the Cardinal sits at 4-4 overall and alone in second place in the Pac-12 North. Considering what's left on the schedule -- Colorado, Washington State, and Cal, arguably the three worst teams in the conference -- it's not inconceivable that Stanford could finish with six conference wins. With another bye this weekend and more time for some of the injured players to recover, the Cardinal could be healthier than it's been in a while as they ready for the season's final four-game stretch.
So don't worry about the past, be excited about the future.
