Could it be that we're finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? After struggling for weeks with injuries and uncertainty at multiple positions on both sides of the ball, the Cardinal looks to be stable, if not dramatically healthier. We should see the same five starters along the offensive line for the third game in a row, the longest streak of the season, and while K.J. Costello isn't yet one hundred percent, he's reported to have been a full participant in practice for the first time since September. So as the Cardinal heads into the home stretch, the schedule seems to line up nicely. First there are games against the three teams with the worst records in the conference, followed by a visit from Notre Dame, a team who looks much more beatable than they did just two weeks ago. Can the Cardinal run the table and finish 8-4? That's a bit much to consider right now, so instead let's focus on the first step, the Colorado Buffaloes.
The Buffs started the season strong, charging out of the gates like Ralphie and posting a 3-1 record, including wins over #25 Nebraska and #24 Arizona State. (Oh, and new head coach Mel Tucker was wearing shorts!) Now we know that Nebraska probably didn't deserve that ranking, and Arizona State has also slipped to the bottom half of its division, but Colorado's current five-game losing streak is still a bit of a surprise after that promising start.
There was a narrow loss to Arizona, then two crushing road defeats as they lost to Oregon and Washington State by a combined score of 86-13, a game they easily could've won against USC (35-31), and finally a 31-14 loss to UCLA. Probably the single biggest factor heading into today's game, then is this: Are the Buffs desperate, or have they given up on their season? With a game in two weeks against Washington and the season finale in their manufactured rivalry game with Utah, today is probably the Buffaloes' last best chance at a win.
But they won't get it. I think we'll see another nice performance from Costello, who should build on his success he had two weeks ago with Colby Parkinson and Simi Fehoko as they look to exploit the Buffs' depleted secondary, and Cameron Scarlett will take advantage of a Colorado rushing defense that's yielding more than 150 yards per game, ranking 80th in the country. Colorado quarterback Steven Montez has shown a tendency to throw interceptions, and if the Cardinal can put him in a position where he has to push for big plays, that could play into the hands -- literally -- of Paulson Adebo and Kyu Kelly. I see Stanford winning, 31-20.
For an alternative point of view, however, I've got Brian Howell, who covers Colorado sports at the BuffZone.com. Here's Brian...
Go Mighty Card:
In general, how has this season gone for the Buffs in comparison to what expectations were entering the season?
Brian Howell:
Externally, I don’t think much was expected of the Buffs, but internally they expected better than this. CU made a coaching change because it was 5-7 two years in a row and tired of missing out on bowl games. Given the excitement around coach [Mel] Tucker’s arrival, I think this has been a disappointing season for the Buffs to this point.
GMC:
After opening the season 3-1 with two wins over ranked teams, Colorado has lost five straight games. Has anything changed, or have they just run into stronger competition?
Howell:
It’s been a few issues. Injuries have hit them hard, especially in the secondary, where two of their top three corners are out for the year and they had a starting safety miss two games and then quit the team. They’re also not executing like they did early in the year and penalties have been a major issue. As losses pile up, I think they’ve lost confidence, as well.
GMC:
How would you characterize Steven Montez’s performance this season, particularly recently. His struggles seem to match his team’s recent slide. What has he done well, and where has he struggled?
Howell:
Montez played very well early in the season. First five games, I thought he had one subpar performance, against Air Force (but played exceptional in the fourth quarter and nearly led them to the win). Last four games, though, he’s really only played well once, against USC, and it’s no surprise that was CU’s best game lately. The Buffs go as Montez goes and he’s really struggled in their last three road games. He hasn’t been sharp at all in those games, missing passes and reads and trying too hard to make big plays when they aren’t there. Overall, I think most people expected more from him as a fifth-year senior and three-year starter, but he just hasn’t shown the development you’d expect.
GMC:
The offense seems heavily slanted towards the pass, but what about the Colorado running backs? What can we expect to see from Alex Fontenot?
Howell:
They’ve got a pretty solid 1-2 punch at running back with Fontenot and freshman Jaren Mangham. Fontenot missed last week’s game with a concussion, and I don’t know yet if he’ll play this week against Stanford. Mangham can handle the load if Fontenot doesn’t play, but they’re much better when they can utilize both. Fontenot is more of a shifty runner with some burst through the hole, while Mangham is more power. They don’t produce big plays, but they typically do a good job of getting a bunch of 5 and 10-yard runs.
GMC:
In the passing game, who are Montez’s favorite targets? How worried should the Stanford secondary be?
Howell:
CU certainly has several weapons that could present problems, but again, a lot of it depends on how Montez is playing. When he’s sharp, they’re dangerous. Laviska Shenault is the biggest star on the team, but he hasn’t really been fully healthy since the ASU game. He looked great against USC and then was hobbled and didn’t do much against UCLA. If he’s feeling great, he could have a big game. KD Nixon has a ton of speed and talent, but he’s been very inconsistent all year. The most consistent weapon they’ve had is Tony Brown, who is having his best year. He doesn’t do anything special, but he does everything well – runs good routes, gets open, catches the ball. Because of that, he’s become Montez’s most reliable weapon.
GMC:
The young Stanford offensive line didn’t allow a sack against Arizona two weeks ago. Do you expect more of a challenge from the Colorado front seven?
Howell:
I would expect more of a challenge from CU because of how they’ve played lately. They’ve been more aggressive with bringing pressure in recent games. It’s only produced four sacks in the past two games, but they’ve put a lot of pressure on the QB lately. So, I’d expect them to be aggressive again and try to get after Costello.
GMC:
What has to go right for Colorado to come with the win?
Howell:
For starters, their offense has to get rolling. They’ve been bad in the last three road games, but played pretty well against USC at home two weeks ago. If Montez plays well, they should be able to put points on the board. Defensively, CU is going to give up points and yards; they’re just not good enough to hold teams down to low numbers. But, causing turnovers will be huge for CU. That was a key for the Buffs early in the year, but they haven’t been able to get many takeaways lately. Get a couple against Stanford and that will help a lot. They also have to cut down on the penalties.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction. Give me a final score and your best explanation for how we get there.
Howell:
I expect the Buffs to play fairly well at home; they usually do. But, they’ve also lost three in a row at Folsom Field because they haven’t been very good at finishing games So, I think it’ll be a close game, but Stanford is a better team right now. KJ Costello should be able to have success against the CU defense and if they hold onto the ball, they win. Stanford 34, Colorado 30.
