Notre Dame finished the 2016 season at 4-8. Only four times in 120 years of Notre Dame football have the Irish had a worse record than that, so there was no surprise when head coach Brian Kelly made dramatic changes during the off-season. The criticisms Kelly heard back then are essentially identical to those David Shaw hears today, and Kelly's response heading into the 2017 season mirrors what most Stanford critics hope to see from Shaw as he looks to recover from what will likely be a 4-8 season of his own.
Kelly fired his offensive and defensive coordinators, as well as his special teams and strength coaches. (Here's an article about that house cleaning.) It's difficult to argue with the results. The Irish jumped back to national relevance in 2017 with a 10-3 record and a Citrus Bowl win over LSU, then continued their improvement in 2018 by posting an undefeated regular season before falling to Clemson in the College Football Playoffs. A crushing loss to Michigan earlier this year eliminated Notre Dame from playoff contention this season, but a victory on Saturday would give them ten wins for the third straight season since the makeover and a likely NY6 bowl bid.
The moment Saturday's game ends, speculation will begin about how Shaw will respond to his down season. Will he do something similar to what Kelly did and remake his staff, or will he stay the course and hope for different results? It'll be a while before we have any answers to those questions, so for now let's focus on the matchup with Notre Dame.
As Stanford heads into its final game of the season, the good news is that there are no new injuries to report, but the bad news is that almost all of the previously injured players remain unavailable. The most notable name there is K.J. Costello. Expectations for the senior quarterback were high following his record-breaking campaign in 2018, but three different injuries this fall made this a season to forget for Costello. He was robbed of the opportunity to defend the Axe last week, and he'll be wearing street clothes when he's honored on Senior Day on Saturday afternoon. Costello (and Shaw) will have some important decisions to make in the coming months, and there's a real possibility that we've seen the last of K.J. wearing the Cardinal and White. He could return as a fifth-year senior if Shaw asks him back, he could declare for the NFL draft, or he could leave as a graduate transfer in hopes of finding someplace to play in order to bolster his status for the 2021 draft. Just like Shaw and the entire program, Costello is at a crossroads.
Defensive backs Paulson Adebo and Malik Antoine also remain out, and that doesn't bode well as the defense prepares to face the balanced attack led by Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book. The Stanford defense played well last week against Cal, but Cal's offense doesn't begin to compare to Notre Dame's. If the Cardinal has a hope of keeping the game close, Davis Mills and the offense will have to be playing at their best. Notre Dame's defense has faltered at times this year, so there will be opportunities, but Mills and company will have to take advantage of every single one of them. If the Cardinal has to punt more than once, the game will end in favor of the Irish.
I hope that I'm wrong, but I suspect that Notre Dame will win this game easily, somewhere in the neighborhood of 38-14.
For a look through Irish eyes, I reached out to Randall Mast of the long-running Notre Dame podcast, Irish Sports Talk. Read on...
Go Mighty Card:
Curious about Brian Kelly’s recent overhaul of the program, I came across an SI article from March of 2017 with this subhead: After last year’s 4-8 mark, Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly is committed to changing everything from the coaching staff to the strength training to — most of all — his own responsibilities. That jumped off the page because there is a huge portion of the Stanford fanbase that is desperately hoping to read that exact same headline this off-season regarding David Shaw. So here’s the question. What were your thoughts at the time about those sweeping changes, and how does that decision look now, three seasons later?
Irish Sports Talk:
The changes were needed and my only concern was whether Kelly was willing to make those changes. He was and did make those changes and it turned out to be one of the best coaching decisions he ever made! Since then Notre Dame has gone 10-3, 12-1 and is 9-2 this season with a playoff appearance a year ago. It all started with changes in the strength and conditioning staff. There was a huge difference in the physicality and speed of the team, they started to produce on the field which helped with recruiting and Notre Dame has more depth on the current team than they have ever had! Injuries no longer impact this team like it did in the past. There are less injuries and when a starter goes down he is replaced and there is almost no drop off in production with the backup player! Currently Notre Dame has one of the top ranked 2020 recruiting classes and the number one class in 2021!
GMC:
In general, how has this season gone for the Irish in terms of expectations?
IST:
I expected this current team to have 1 loss at the end of the season, so the Georgia loss was not a surprise but then the debacle in Michigan happened. There are no answers for what happened that night in Michigan besides the fact that Notre Dame did not show up. The rest of the season has been going as expected.
GMC:
Stanford fans are familiar with quarterback Ian Book, and he appears to be having another excellent season. In what ways has he improved over the course of his Notre Dame career?
IST:
Ian Book has been very up and down this season. Earlier in the season Book was seeing ghosts on the field and had no confidence, but in the last three games his confidence has been sky high and he is making throws he has never made before. In those three games he has been making throws downfield, which he hasn't done before, and it's due to his confidence level and releasing the ball as the play develops vs. waiting till everyone is in position and open before deciding what to do with the ball.
GMC:
Who are Book’s favorite targets?
IST:
Book's favorite targets are wide receiver Chase Claypool and tight end Kole Kmet and for obvious reasons! Both these players are physical specimens that will be playing on Sundays for a long time! Every game Claypool will make a catch that has everyone in awe, and Kmet is currently tied for most touchdowns by a tight end in a season at Notre Dame, who is considered Tight End U, and he missed the first 4 games of the season!
GMC:
The Notre Dame run game seems to be as powerful as ever, even without the contributions of Book. Tony Jones, Jr., is the leading rusher, but his numbers have been up and down throughout the season. What are his strengths, and what can we expect to see from him on Saturday?
IST:
The run game has actually been a disappointment this season compared to what Notre Dame has gotten used to the past few years. A lot of it is due to the offensive line's run blocking. Tony Jones is a bruiser, but he doesn't have the break away speed to produce long runs. His strengths are producing a steady dose of 3 to 4 yard runs.
GMC:
Aside from the Michigan loss, the Notre Dame defense appears to be solid. Who are the stars on that side of the ball, and how do you expect them to attack Stanford, particularly in passing situations?
IST:
The defense has been outstanding outside the Michigan game. Notre Dame is missing a few of its stars on the defensive line in Julian Okwara and Daelin Hayes due to injuries. Khalid Kareem is the star that continues to make big game changing plays. Notre Dame will attack the Stanford passing game by bringing pressure from the defensive line and line backers and letting three safeties in Alohi Gilman, Jalen Elliot and Kyle Hamilton go to work with their pass defense. Gilman and Elliot are one of the top safety duos in the country and true freshman Kyle Hamilton is too good to keep off the field. He is 10th in the country in interceptions with 4, and he is not a starter and is getting limited reps.
GMC:
Just for fun, who is your favorite Notre Dame player of all time?
IST:
My favorite Notre Dame player would be quarterback Brady Quinn. During his career is when I seriously started following Notre Dame football! Watching him play every Saturday and watching him set Notre Dame records was reason for a lot of excitement. There were some heartbreakers like the 'Bush Push' game in 2005 when Notre Dame nearly upset number 1 USC, but with Quinn at quarterback it felt like there was always a chance for Notre Dame to do the unthinkable!
GMC:
Stanford is a justifiably huge underdog going into this game. What doomsday scenario could cause the Irish to fall victim to an upset?
IST:
The doomsday scenario is if Notre Dame decides to play like they did at Michigan. If Book starts seeing ghosts and loses confidence, the offense will stall and the defense has been asked to do a lot this year to keep Notre Dame in some of the games, and the worst case scenario is if they finally cave under the pressure.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there. And be nice.
IST:
I think this is finally the year that Brian Kelly gets his first win at Stanford. Notre Dame loves to throw the ball and should have success against Stanford's injured defense. The defense has been very good against the run, and with Stanford struggling to run the ball Notre Dame can focus more on their pass defense. I predict Notre Dame to win 38-10. Stanford is having a down year and I believe Notre Dame has the team to take advantage of that!
