If I had told you back in August that three different players would start at quarterback for the Cardinal this season and that none of those three would start as many as three consecutive games, you might've known what was coming. If I had told you that nine different players would start on the offensive line, and that not until games seven, eight, and nine would we see the same quintet start three consecutive games, you might've known what was coming.
Stanford has suffered through a catastrophic string of injuries that began in Week 1 with a season-ending injury to left tackle Walker Little and the first of three different injuries that quarterback K.J. Costello would suffer, and extended through this week with Costello expected to be out again, along with cornerback Paulsen Adebo, safety Malik Antoine, and tight end Tucker Fisk.
All of this led to last week's disheartening loss to Colorado. Facing a team that had lost five straight and yielded more than 30 points in every game this season, the Cardinal could manage only 13 points, putting the postseason at risk. In a season in which the team seemed to hit rock bottom each time the calendar changed, last week's loss was a new low, and not just because of that game's result. The loss to Colorado raised the potential of a death spiral, with the Cardinal possibly losing to Washington State on Saturday, losing the Axe the following week, and closing with a defeat at the hands of the Fighting Irish.
For fans who have followed this program as it spent the last decade going to Rose Bowls and churning out Heisman finalists, a 4-8 season would feel like more than a minor blip. It would trigger that portion of the fanbase that has always questioned the Cardinal's success, and make some wonder if perhaps this golden age could be coming to an end.
The reality, though, is that even the strongest programs in the land have down years. Most observers would agree that along with Stanford, Oregon and USC have been the top teams in the Pac-12 over the past fifteen years, but both the Ducks and the Trojans spent time wandering the desert at different points in the last few years. While Alabama may seem like the gold standard of the sport, the Crimson Tide was only 43-38 from 2000-2007. Clemson might own a 25-game winning streak right now, but before this decade the Tigers had gone twenty years without posting double-digit wins. Even Ohio State, probably the most consistently great team in the country over the past two decades, has had a down year, finishing just 6-7 in 2011.
My point is this -- sometimes even a strong program has to endure a season like this. But as the Cardinal sits at 4-5, there is still reason for hope. They travel to Pullman to take on another 4-5 team, the Washington State Cougars, in a game that will likely eliminate one team or the other from bowl contention. Once again the Cougars are fielding one of the most prolific offenses in the conference, but they've struggled in Pac-12 play, much to the chagrin of head coach Mike Leach.
This is the point in the piece where I typically tell you how Stanford will win, but I don't have a prediction this week. Quite simply, I have no idea what will happen, and nothing will surprise me. So in lieu of a prediction, I'll just turn things over to my old friend Coug-A-Sutra, professor emeritus of Cougology. He's got lots to say...
GMC:
It’s natural for fans to convince themselves that their struggling team is really much better than they’ve been, but that might be the case with Washington State. With three losses to UCLA, ASU, and Oregon by a combined ten points, it’s easy to see how this season could be completely different for the Cougs. I know that Bill Parcels says that “you are what your record says you are,” but is this really a 4-5 team?
Sutra:
In a word, yes. One of our former blog writers commented prior to the season that he thought the Cougs were an 11 win team with an 8 win schedule. Well, it turns out that this was probably a 9-10 win offense and a 2 win defense. So, whether this team is 5-4 or 4-5 or some reasonable variant, the bottom line is that this is a team that can play with anyone when the offense is firing (see Oregon), and one that can lose to anybody when it's not (or in the case of the UCLA game, they can lose to anyone even when the offense is firing). That usually is what 5-7 looks like, at least to these old eyes.
GMC:
Mike Leach seems to be feeling some frustration after losing five of six games, recently questioning the desire of his players and the legitimacy of the student leaders. Is he beginning to pave his way out of town, or is this just a coach trying to motivate his team to win its final three games?
Sutra:
We have mixed views of Leach's long-term outlook in Pullman. Some of us feel like this is the year where Leach looks to leave. But we're not sure that this season is the primary driver for that. I think the real reason why he might leave is because he may see last season's 11-2 record as a ceiling that he may never reach again, let alone eclipse. I think there's also frustration about the attrition he's seen of his coaching staff, particularly to Oregon. And while that's part of what happens when you're a big time coach (see Nick Saban), I think it bothers him that his assistants are leaving because he can't pay them.
Overall, I tend to look at the season as just "one of those years" and I'm increasingly thinking that Leach thinks the same way. Leach wants to be Leach, and he also has been really adamant that his main priority is to work with an administration and university where everyone is on the same page. And to that point, the new AD, Pat Chun, is universally loved and revered, and the University president not only hired Chun, he negotiated Leach's new contract personally when WSU didn't have an AD. So Leach has a lot of institutional support, and he's been around the block enough to know that having that kind of support is far from automatic--and he has ZERO booster pressure/demands at WSU. So, at this point, I'd bet that he stays no matter what happens the rest of the way. But oh, Pig-Suey!!
GMC:
I watched Anthony Gordon throw 24 touchdown passes against UCLA — at least that’s what it seemed like — and his numbers tell me he’s had a great season. I wonder if you could compare him to Gardner Minshew in this sense — pretty early last year it became clear that Minshew was a special player and not just a product of the system. What would you say about Gordon in that regard?
Sutra:
Gordon is better than Minshew, at least he is in my view. The difference between them is that Gordon has played a season and half of college ball (2/3 at WSU) whereas Minshew had multiple JC seasons plus his time at ECU. That's a lot of starts and reps that Gordo hasn't had. But in terms of arm talent, Gordo is better. Of course, Minshew is oh-so special, and he also has that certain je ne sais quoi that is something that comes around once in a generation. I'm still pissed that he had to face the Huskies in a quasi-blizzard... (by the way, congrats on the great UW win earlier in the year. THAT was Stanford football!)
GMC:
Connor Wedington leads the Cardinal with 43 receptions, and tight end Colby Parkinson leads with 412 receiving yards. I mention this because Washington State has three players with more receptions and four with more yards. It’s a world with which Stanford fans are not familiar, so help us out. Does it really matter who’s catching the ball? Do any of these receivers stand out above the others, or is this just an unstoppable machine?
Sutra:
The Coug wide receiver crew is pretty amazing and what's even more amazing is that they've been as productive as they have been without key guys having great seasons. The go-to-guy right now is Brandon Arcadano who is having an All-Conference year at the Air Raid's all-important Y receiver position. NOBODY saw that coming. On the outside, Easop Winston is Gordon's favorite target, and his alternate, Desmond Patmon has the potential to be the best receiver in the league on any given day. Then on the other side of the field, the Cougs are two deep at both the H and X receiver spots. Tay Martin, who was a sure-fire All-Conference guy early last year, has been in a slump of sorts ever since. But he's a guy that I would look for on Saturday as he seems ready for a breakout game, especially against a dinged up Stanford back 7.
GMC:
Probably the biggest concern for Washington State has to be its defense. What do you think has been the source of their problems on that side of the ball? Who are the stars to watch for?
Sutra:
Simply put, WSU doesn't have any stars on defense. As in, NONE. The biggest concern for the Cougs is that they have not been able to find consistent production in the middle of the defensive line, they've had weak production at the defensive end spot, Jahad Woods has been dinged up at the WIL linebacker position, and the MIKE LB has really struggled throughout the year.
The Cougs have gotten a bit better in pass coverage over the past several weeks, but the open field tackling from the back four has been uneven to awful all year. There really are no bright spots there, save the effort by Woods and the occasional play of Willie Taylor and Rod Stone at the RUSH LB spot. Simply put, the defense is going to give up a lot of points and a lot of yards to everyone over the last few weeks of the year.
GMC:
Stanford is desperate for a win on Saturday. What concerns do you have about the Cougars that could manifest themselves this weekend and allow the Cardinal to get the upset?
Sutra:
Stanford can win the game by running the ball. Running the ball. Running the ball, and then running the ball again. That's how they win. But this game is going to be really hard for Stanford to win because of the Cougar offense. Anthony Gordon, when he finds his rhythm, is as good of an Air Raid quarterback as you will find. Max Borghi is a mini Christian McCaffrey at the RB spot (yes, he has that kind of potential/ability) and the team is loaded at the other skills. The OL has been good to great at pass blocking, inconsistent at run blocking, and has been vulnerable to penalites--which tend to come in bunches. But, when they're going, the Cougs are a top 7 offense nationally. So, they can score a lot of points and can beat you in a variety of different ways (explosives, sustained drives, etc.) If Stanford can keep WSU off the field and make the Cougs chase early, they can not only win, they can win comfortably. But at this point, that feels like a tall order.
GMC:
Here’s one just for fun. You’ve been following the Cougs for a long time. Who’s your all-time favorite Washington State player and why?
Sutra:
Ryan Leaf. It took one heck of a talent and personality to take 67 years of frustration and futility and take the school to its first Rose Bowl. His 10-1 team stands as the greatest Cougar team of all time. He was an amazing player on a really special team.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best bet as to how we get there.
Sutra:
Two days ago, I would have given this game 35-24 to the Trees. In fact, I almost thought about throwing some money down on Stanford when I saw the line open up at WSU -12. But with the news of Stanford's defensive injuries as well as Costello being questionable, this game seem like it's going to go WSU once again. I think it will be a bit like last year--that is, a high scoring affair. But Stanford's defense just isn't built to beat a team like WSU, especially when injured. I think the game will stay close for three quarters before WSU pulls away a bit. I'd say its going to be something like WSU 41, Stanford 31. Gordo will throw for about 450 and Stanford will get about the same for total offense (like 480). So, if you like offense this will be a really good one to watch. If you like defense, look away.
Ultimately, I wish the game had higher stakes. I had no idea that both teams would struggle to get to bowl eligibility this year. In fact, I think that there's a very good chance that the winner of Saturday's game will not reach 6 wins. It's been that kind of year for both teams, so we'll see who comes out and wants it more on Saturday. Should be a good one for the die hards!
