Of all the things that were lost in 2019, of all the streaks that went by the wayside, the most painful and most tangible loss was the Axe. I will admit to taking it for granted. Cal had last beaten Stanford in 2009, in a game that was given away in the final moments, but since then the Cardinal had beaten the Bears in every way imaginable. They built a nine-game winning streak during a time when Stanford football was at its zenith and Cal football was wandering the depths of the Pac-12. There was no rational reason to believe the streak would last forever -- though I once predicted it would stretch to seventeen years -- but it certainly felt like it would.
It felt like the two teams were circling in different orbits, and the game itself became less a rivalry game than a yearly ritual. The outcome was never in doubt, so the victories became less sweet as the years passed, and other games on the schedule -- USC, Oregon, Notre Dame -- surpassed Big Game in importance. It was a shame.
And then the inevitable happened in 2019. Were it not for Cal's fourth quarter rally, Big Game would've been another narrow win for the Cardinal, and the Axe would've resided at Stanford a tenth consecutive year. But there was a rally. Cal quarterback Chase Garbers cemented his name in Cal football lore as he marched his team down the field in the closing minutes and scored the game-winning touchdown himself.
When the Axe face-off ended with the Stanford Axe Committee unlocking the Axe and handing it over to their Cal counterparts for the first time in a decade, when Stanford players were walking dejectedly off the field, when Cal fans were celebrating on the Stanford turf for thirty minutes after the game -- suddenly the rivalry was alive again.
On Friday afternoon the Cardinal will get a chance to restore order to the universe and take the Axe back, but they'll be doing so under obviously unprecedented circumstances. While the time of year feels right, the delay to the season means that each team has only played two games, and with both Stanford and Cal at 0-2, this marks the first time in 123 meetings that each team will arrive winless. Also, though there will obviously be no fans in the crowd nor any bands on the field, I have assurances that the Axe will be in Cal's Memorial Stadium, and that there will be an exchange of some sort should the Cardinal win it back.
One of the things I'm most interested to see is how the lack of fans might impact this game. Will it feel like Big Game? Perhaps, in some respects, it will be better if it doesn't. There are far more questions than answers about Stanford football right now. On Friday they need to win the Axe, but for the sake of the program they just need to win a game. During his Tuesday press conference David Shaw was asked about what it's been like to be without the Axe for the past year, but he probably should've been asked about what it's been like to be without a win of any kind for the past year. The short response he gave would've answered either question: "Awful."
After last weekend's Covid cancellation (Washington State didn't have the required number of scholarship players available), the Cardinal has had two weeks of preparation time, and the unexpected off-day last Saturday allowed the coaching staff to restructure this week into a normal practice week heading into Friday's game. Assuming nothing "2020" happens between now and kickoff, Stanford should be healthy and prepared for the first time this season. Whether or not that translates into the first victory of the season remains to be seen.
My expectation is that Davis Mills will play well and lead the Cardinal to the win. The one sure thing we've been hearing about the Cardinal since the spring has been about the quality and depth of the wide receiver group, and with this game being the first that will feature a fully-prepared QB1, we should see the benefit of all that talent. I've never done a "pick to click" on this site, but Friday's game demands one. Watch for the Davis Mills to Simi Fehoko connection to account for 120 yards and a touchdown. If that happens, life will be much easier for running backs Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat, who could combine for 120 yards and another touchdown or two. All of that will lead to a 27-24 Stanford victory and a joyous return of the Axe to its ancestral home.
Not surprisingly, there are other opinions on this subject. In the interest of balance and in hopes of gaining some insight into what's going on in Berkeley, I reached out to the folks at Write for California, a new Cal sports outlet, and they were kind enough to answer my questions about the Bears. (My answers to their questions about the Cardinal will be posted on Friday.) Enjoy.
To the best of your knowledge, how do you think the Covid protocol will affect the Bears this Friday?
Well, we know for sure we have three offensive linemen who were isolated and will most likely be unable to play due to isolation protocol (LT Will Craig, LG Valentino Daltoso, and RT Jake Curhan). It’s the other inactive players that are concerning -- there was a lack of information on why these players were unavailable, with TV broadcasters saying it was due to injury. Hopefully it's just a knock during warm-ups. The most eyes will be on Mike Saffell--the starting center -- as he was carted off during the Oregon State game and was seen on crutches on the sideline.
Coach Wilcox runs a tight ship, and we never have any idea who's going to be out with injuries until the game starts -- and even then it's "an unspecified upper body injury." Cal lost most of their offensive line last week and they still performed well, so I'm not terribly worried about depth at any position other than quarterback. If Chase Garbers is missing for whatever reason, I'd be convinced that Cal is doomed before the game even starts.
Let’s start with Chase Garbers. Stanford fans certainly remember his performance in last year’s Big Game, and Cal fans will likely never forget it. How has he looked this season?
Against UCLA? A quarterback who was on the field for the first time with a brand new offense. Against Oregon State? A quarterback who looked much more comfortable under center. The biggest issue with Chase in game 1 was that he was trying to process too many things at once, whether consciously or subconsciously. In game 2, you could clearly see that some of his processes had started to go to autopilot and feel normal to him, allowing him to focus on making the right play and read.
He was incredibly rusty in the first game of the season and looked like the 2018 version of himself against UCLA. Luckily, he bounced back into 2019 form in the game against OSU--with a number of picture-perfect passes. In a reversal of the past couple years, I'm confident in the offense and only worried about the defense.
In the thirty years that I’ve been paying attention to Cal football, it seems like there’s always been a solid running back — or even a great one — in the backfield. How does the running game look this season?
It easily has the most talent as a unit. Multiple 4-star running backs, experience, youth, explosiveness. There is a lot of talent beyond just Christopher Brown, Jr., and that was seen against OSU with true freshman Damien Moore leapfrogging senior Marcel Dancy, redshirt freshman DeCarlos Brooks, and true freshman Chris Street.
I feel like running back is Cal's deepest position. Running back Chris Brown, Jr., is a fantastic between-the-tackles power back and Marcel Dancy has quite the fortuitous name (Dancy, dance-y) as he's a very shifty and elusive back. They make a great 1-2 punch.
How do the receivers and tight ends look so far? Who are the game changers in those position groups?
The tight end group doesn’t have any stars, but they’re all solid with some good size. They won’t win you games, but they also won’t lose you any. The wide receivers have a weird group. There's experience and lower-ceiling players, but there are also young guys who are higher-ceiling players. Mixing them throughout will be key for this offense the next two years, and it seems so far that offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave is willing to do so. Senior Kekoa Crawford had himself a day last week against OSU, while redshirt sophomore Monroe Young caught his first pass of his career last week as well -- and plenty of players in between. Nikko Remigio seemed to be the game breaker as we ended last season, but he’s rarely played snaps at wide receiver this season so far. So in terms of game changers at the group, I don’t know what to tell you. There are players there, but none outside of Kekoa Crawford have shown it through two games.
Garbers seems to have established strong chemistry with wide receiver Kekoa Crawford, and he's been able to connect with Crawford any time Cal really needs to make a big play. Wide receiver Makai Polk looks to be the deep threat, as he frequently runs go-routes along the sidelines for big gains. Tight end Jake Tonges has seen the most playing time this year out of the crowded tight end room, and he looks to be more of a third-down/possession receiver.
Last year’s Cal defense was ferocious, but this year they’ve given up 34 points to UCLA and 31 to Oregon State. Is there cause for concern, or are we dealing with too small a sample size?
I think it’s both. It’s two games in a pandemic, you’re trying to replace three NFL draftees, your entire defensive line was practicing alone until the day of the UCLA game, and the two-deep against OSU at nose guard was decimated with a season-ending injury and not being match-fit. That being said, there were a lot of moments where the Bears just lacked discipline --which is something very new compared to the last three years. Tackling is off, reading the offenses is off, zone coverages are off, finishing off plays are off. I wouldn’t go as far as saying it's troubling in a ridiculous season that has no sense of normalcy beyond the actual game, but it is something that is at least needing drastic improvement to alleviate this creeping concern.
I hate to say it, but I am concerned. Cal still has a very talented secondary (three interceptions in two games), but they weren't exactly dealing with the conference's best passers (UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson and OSU's Tristan Gebbia). I think Davis Mills (or even Jack West) will be a much tougher test. The real concern for the Cal defense this year has been the run defense. Evan Weaver was the NCAA leader in tackles last year and a superb run stopper -- and his loss can't be understated after watching those first two games. Cal is also missing their starting nose tackle Aaron Maldonado and it seems that opposing running backs are reaching the second level of the defense far too often. It'll be interesting to see if Shaw tries to attack Cal on the ground (which did not work at all against Colorado) or through the air with Mills against a tougher secondary.
Cal’s special teams had a bad week last week. Was that just a fluke, or is this an area of weakness?
The Bears had two touchdowns by Nikko Remigio wiped off the board due to a holding call and a block in the back. (Call me biased, but the block in the back call was egregious.) Punting was an absolute disaster with missed blocking, confusion on shifts, and overall bad kicks as well. I have no idea how to judge it because it was so bad.
Well, they haven't looked too great so far this year. Even ignoring the blocked punt, the punting has been atrocious and special teams is one of those things you don't appreciate until it's gone (how many people knew Washington had a freshman long snapper until he snapped it over the head of his punter?). Wilcox and Shaw both love to play the field position game, so it is something to keep an eye on.
I almost don’t want to ask this question, but I feel like I have to. What did last year’s Big Game win mean for Cal fans?
There were multiple generations of Cal alumni and students that did not get to see the Axe in Berkeley. That changed.
I always love the atmosphere of Big Games and obviously that excitement finally carried on after the game. I watched the Cal game at an alumni bar in NYC where Mike Mohamed showed up. I hadn't seen him since he was playing in the 2009 game and I was rushing the field at Stanford Stadium after his interception. It was awesome.
Not even the experts can figure this game out (Vegas has Cal -2.5; ESPN gives Stanford a 59.5% chance to win), but I’m going to ask you for a prediction anyway. Give me a final score and your best bet as to how we get there.
I will never predict a loss against Stanford, so I’ll just stick to my optimism that things will turn around. Bears get back on track on offense and defense, Chase Garbers goes full takeover mode slinging the ball for four touchdowns, LB Kuony Deng finally awakens with double-digit tackles, seniors Elijah Hicks and Cam Bynum have a lock down Big Game for one last time with a multi-interception game. Basically, everything I want to go right goes right. Bears drop 40 on the Cardinal and hold them to under 20 points. Bears win 42–17. Please?
I think Cal wins this one 31–27. Cal takes an early lead with a couple of scores, turtles up on offense, Stanford regains the lead in the third quarter (with Austin Jones having a big game), Cal and Stanford then trade leads until Cal scores the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter--with not enough time for Davis Mills to make a comeback drive down the field. That is, if there is indeed a sense of justice in the world.
