I spent only thirty minutes or so rehashing Stanford's most recent loss on Saturday afternoon before making an intentional decision to move on. I gathered the wife and kids in the family room for some takeout and slid a movie into the disc player. The burger was deliciously decadent, the Coke was icy and refreshing, and the movie -- Ralph Macchio in the original Karate Kid -- was the perfect pairing. Nostalgia for my wife and me, backstory for our children who had recently discovered Cobra Kai on Netflix.
If you've been visiting this spot for a while, you probably won't be surprised that I'm a sucker for nostalgia. I was fourteen when I watched The Karate Kid in the theater for the first time, and it hit me in all the right spots back then -- the music, the action, Elisabeth Shue -- all of it. Watching it again on Saturday night, with the wounds still open from Saturday afternoon's game, I couldn't stop my mind from making connections from the film to the current state of the Stanford football program.
You likely know the story. Young Daniel LaRusso arrives in California from his native New Jersey and has trouble adjusting. Bullies beat him up at every turn, and he continuously sabotages his relationship with the cutest girl in the school, but with the guidance of a wise mentor, Mr. Miyagi, Daniel eventually figures everything out and triumphs in the end.
As I watched Daniel getting kicked in the head on the beach, being pushed off of his bike and tumbling down a hillside, and getting jumped by guys in skeleton costumes, I thought about how nice life is when you're the bully. That's not the message the filmmakers were trying to send back in 1984, but the nostalgia coursing through my veins was doing funny things to my synapses, and I thought back to a time when Stanford football was bully ball, when opponents routinely left the field beaten in ways not measured by the scoreboard. The good old days.
But there's an obvious problem with nostalgia. We cling to it when what we're seeing in front of us no longer gives us what we need. When we feel uncomfortable during our freshman year of college, we head straight to a high school party during winter break; when our first born child leaves home, we dust off an old photo album as we wipe away our tears. Sometimes it's easier to look to the past than to accept the realities of the present and the unknowns that lie ahead.
And so it is with the Cardinal.
After an opening loss that could be explained away -- Oregon is likely the top team in the conference; the Cardinal was without starting quarterback Davis Mills due to a testing error -- expectations were high for this game against Colorado. Mills and wide receiver Connor Wedington were back, and although the Buffaloes had beaten UCLA in Week 1, their defense didn't figure to offer much resistance. But when Mills opened the game with four straight completions to four different receivers, it was nice to see even it wasn't unexpected.
The possession ended with another red zone failure as the drive stalled at the Colorado 30, but there was a silver lining. Jet Toner split the uprights from 48 yards out, proving he had recovered from last week's debacle when he had missed four field goals. It was probably the most important first quarter field goal you'll ever see.
The Stanford defense also had a strong start, throwing down a three and out, but when Mills and the offense came back out on the field, things didn't go well. Two runs from Nathaniel Peat brought up a 3rd and 1, and David Shaw decided to get tricky. Mills came off the field and the newest Cardinal quarterback, Isaiah Sanders, trotted out in his place. Sanders is a graduate transfer from the Air Force Academy, and aside from depth in the quarterback room, he's expected to add increased athleticism in situations like this. It was an exciting moment.
And then it wasn't. The next time we see a Stanford quarterback operating with urgency it will be the first time, and Sanders seems to have adapted to his new environment quickly. After casually breaking the huddle, Sanders led his team to the line of scrimmage, made a few calls, surveyed the defense, asked his running back to take half a step forward, surveyed the defense some more, and then took the snap about a second after the play clock drained to zero. The way that he pivoted towards the back suggested the play would've been a read-option, but it never happened.
Shaw had actually called timeout just in time to avoid the penalty, but the moment was lost. Mills went back out, threw an incompletion, and now the possession was lost as well.
Three plays into Colorado's next series, the Cardinal defense produced a play that worked exactly as it was drawn up. Buffalo quarterback Sam Noyer dropped back to pass and immediately found linebacker Andres Fox barreling through the middle of the line. Forced to throw early and off balance, Noyer lofted an ill-advised pass over the middle of the field and Malik Antoine was able to come up with the interception. The Stanford defense had struggled to turn the ball over in 2019, so it was nice to see the unit's third takeaway in five quarters.
What followed would be the second of three consecutive three-and-outs for the Stanford offense, a disappointing stretch of futility that saw four incompletions from Mills and a total of ten yards rushing from Peat and Austin Jones. Mills clearly looked rusty. Not only had he missed last week's game, he had been quarantined through the week and had only been able to practice on Thursday evening. After completing three passes on the opening drive, he struggled through much of the rest of the half. He had trouble going to his second reads, and his throws were often off target. As for the running game, the optimism generated by the previous week's performance against Oregon quickly evaporated as the line was unable to open holes and the rushing attack was largely ineffective. Jones had totaled a hundred yards against the Ducks, but the Buffs would hold him to just nine yards on nine carries.
The good news for the Cardinal was that the Colorado offense was also struggling, but that changed on their final possession of the first quarter. On 2nd and 8 Noyer connected with Dimitri Stanley on what should've been nothing more than a ten- or fifteen-yard gain for a 1st down. But Antoine had gotten out of position, somehow dropping down behind the play, and the entire middle of the field was wide open. Stanley raced into this opening and was never touched on his way to a 55-yard touchdown and a 7-3 lead for his Buffaloes.
It was only one bad play, but the following Stanford drive ended with a dropped pass near the goal line and Toner's second field goal, and then the Buffs put together another long touchdown drive to push their advantage to 14-6.
With momentum beginning to tilt in Colorado's direction, the next drive seemed about as important as a second quarter drive could be. The Cardinal needed points, preferably seven of them. For the first time this season we began to see why NFL scouts are excited about Mills. When nothing was available to him on the first play of the drive, he calmly tucked the ball and scrambled for 15 yards. Three plays later, on 3rd and 10, Simi Fehoko was open by just an eyelash, but that was enough. Mills rifled a perfect pass just over the linebacker's head and into Fehoko's hands for a 34-yard gain to the Colorado 24.
(Side note: If you haven't read Dave Borghi's quarterback analysis on Twitter, do yourself a favor and check out this thread for insight on what Mills did well, and this one on what he didn't. There's no one out there who does a better job of analyzing Stanford's quarterback play.)
Soon after that success, however, the Cardinal offense spiraled into dark comedy. There's a scene in The Karate Kid when Daniel sees an opportunity for revenge. Even as he's threading a garden hose over a bathroom stall and turning on the water to drench his nemesis, we know what will happen; we aren't surprised at all when the bullies track him down and beat him mercilessly.
That scene took me back to the sequence that played out when the Cardinal arrived at a 1st and 10 at the Colorado 14. Peat and Jones combined for nine yards on three plays -- thankfully, no end zone lobs -- and I was certain Shaw would keep the offense out on the field for 4th and 1. This was Stanford football, I told myself. Moving your man from Point A to Point B against his will. For just a moment I thought everything would happen the way it did in my memories. The offensive line would overwhelm the Buffs, the running back would power his way into the end zone, and all would be right in the world.
Sometimes nostalgia gets in the way of reality. Just like Daniel, I should've known what was coming.
It took a bit too long to decide on a play, it took a bit too long for the play to get to Mills, it took a bit too long for Mills to decipher and deliver the play in the huddle, and it took a bit too long for the team to get to the line of scrimmage. There were only seven seconds left on the play clock when Mills's receivers were finally set, so when he noticed something he didn't like and (it appeared) tried to switch into another play, there wasn't enough time. This time Shaw chose not to use one of his two remaining timeouts, and the flags flew. Delay of game. Fourth and six. Toner came out and hit his third field goal of the game, but it was a disaster that seemed to cost the Cardinal more than just four points.
The sequence was a travesty, but it's hard to know where to place the blame. First of all, it was an atrocious spot by the officials. Jones looked to have possibly gotten to the yellow line on 3rd down, but the officials inexplicably placed the ball a full yard short of where it appeared to be. Would things have played out differently if it had been 4th and inches instead of 4th and a full yard? Probably, but that line of thinking obscures the problems which have become systemic. Mills needs to be aware of the play clock. I realize that there are a lot of things going on his head as he stands at the line of scrimmage, but his prime directive needs to be to snap the ball inside of forty seconds, especially when the stakes are as high as they were on this particular play.
But Mills isn't the only one to blame. Just as we sometimes allow nostalgia to cloud our vision, it's beginning to look like Shaw's present assessment of his offensive philosophy suffers because of what's worked so well in the past. It suffers because of Andrew Luck. During Shaw's final two years as Stanford's offensive coordinator and his first as head coach, he had the luxury of sending in plays to one of the best college quarterbacks ever to play the game. We might remember Luck's physical talents, but his ability to read defenses and comprehend the playbook was unmatched. During his senior year he was often calling his own plays for chunks of the game, and when he returned from a three-day minicamp with the Indianapolis Colts, he famously announced that he had essentially learned their entire offense.
This isn't new analysis, but it's the first time it's appeared in this space. If the offense only works when you have a once-in-a-generation talent at the controls, it might make more sense to simplify the offense than to wait for the next prodigy to come along. Maybe it would be a good idea to send in a play and just have the quarterback run it. Maybe you don't need calculus when algebra will do.
The game was essentially decided in the third quarter. Colorado took the opening kickoff and sliced through the Stanford defense without any resistance, moving 75 yards in 9 plays for a touchdown, then followed that with another quick strike (75 yards in three plays), and things began to look dire.
Trailing 28-9 midway through the third quarter, Mills stood at his own 14 facing 3rd and 14, and he made his best throw of the day, zipping a laser to Michael Wilson on the sideline for a 26-yard gain. Two plays later he'd drop another dime, this one for 29 yards over the middle to Elijah Higgins. (More of this, please.)
Another pass to Wilson pushed the ball to 1st and goal at the 2, and dark thoughts began to creep in. But when Mills kept the ball on a designed bootleg on 2nd down and outraced a pursuing linebacker on his way to the end zone, there were signs of life and the lead had been cut to 28-16.
The Stanford defense wasn't able to slow down the stampeding Buffaloes, however, and Colorado pounded their way down the field for another long drive, finally getting into the end zone on the first play of the 4th quarter to take what appeared to be an insurmountable 35-16 lead.
But when the Cardinal marched down the field to score on a two-yard Austin Jones touchdown followed by a nifty two-point conversion to Wedington with 8:45 to play, suddenly things were interesting again at 35-24. A quick stop for the Stanford defense gave the ball back to Mills with 5:38 left on the clock, and for the first time in more than an hour I began to think the Cardinal had a shot.
Mills seemed to have shed the rust that had hindered him in the first half, and now he was throwing darts from sideline to sideline. There was one missed opportunity when when he overthrew a wide open Fehoko to the left and missed a probable touchdown, but he came back on the next play and looked to his right to string a rope through a tight window to hit Wedington for a 28-yard gain to the Colorado 31. Four plays later they had 1st and goal, and four plays after that Mills slipped a pass to tight end Scooter Harrington for the touchdown. When Mills found his other tight end, Tucker Fisk, for the two-point conversion, the Cardinal trailed by only three points. Could it be?
If Shaw had had any timeouts left in his pocket the Cardinal might've been able to make things even more interesting, but after the onside kick failed with just 2:34 remaining, the Buffaloes were able to bleed all but ten seconds off the clock before giving the ball back, and that was not nearly enough time to make a difference. Colorado 35, Stanford 32.
You could argue that the Cardinal's domination of the 4th quarter was enough to give them momentum heading into next week's game, or you could counter with the idea that the first three quarters had been so bad that the last fifteen minutes were completely irrelevant.
The truth is, it doesn't matter. Stanford has now lost six games in a row, and it's been 54 weeks since the program's last victory. If they hope to prove that last year's 4-8 record truly was an aberration, the Cardinal must beat Washington State next week. A loss against the Cougars, however, would usher in the possibility of an 0-7 season.
Is there hope? Of course there is. If Daniel LaRusso can hobble out of the training room and onto the mat in the championship round and somehow find a way to win, so can the Cardinal.
