When my phone buzzed on Saturday afternoon exactly one hundred minutes before the scheduled kickoff of Stanford's season opener, I reached for it with anticipation. I had been getting news alerts and gleeful texts from friends and family all day long, so I assumed it was more of the same -- but then I read it.
"Oh my god."
My wife was immediately alarmed, until I told her that it was another one of those things in my life that were both incredibly important and insignificant at the same time. It was football.
I was looking at a tweet from the Stanford football account, a photo with text small enough that I had to pinch and zoom to read it: "Due to COVID-19 testing results and contact tracing protocols, the following student-athletes are unavailable for tonight's game at Oregon: DE Trey LaBounty, QB Davis Mills, WR Connor Wedington." Never has bigger news been issued in a smaller font.
After the disappointment of last season's 4-8 campaign and all of the positive streaks that came to an end, Stanford fans were buoyed by optimistic reports of Davis Mills and a group widely believed to be the best collection of wide receivers in school history. Last year we had seen great things from Mills, a recruit once compared favorably to Andrew Luck, but our only real glimpse of backup Jack West had been an average performance in the disheartening loss to UCLA. Things looked bleak.
Once the game began, however, things looked immediately better when Mr. West handed the ball off and Austin Jones ran through a nice hole in the line for a twelve-yard gain on the Cardinal's first play of 2020. It was only one play, but for a program that has been built on the running game but had averaged just 105 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry during a long, dark season a year ago, this one play seemed significant. Or at the very least, it was a relief.
After that opening carry, Jones would get the ball on the next three snaps, the last of which going for 17 yards to the Oregon 33. Suddenly we were seeing the Stanford football we were used to. Jack West's first pass could've been a touchdown -- wide receiver Simi Fehoko had broken free, but the pass fell incomplete -- but the drive stalled, forcing a 48-yard field goal attempt.
If there was one thing no one was concerned about heading into this season, it was Jet Toner. Given a normal 13-game season this year, Toner might've been able to finish his Stanford career as the school's all-time leading field goal kicker. And so it was stunning that Toner not only missed the field goal but pushed it so far to the right that it never had a chance. It was so bad that it was easy in the moment to dismiss it as a fluke. Hindsight tells us there might've been something more going on.
There had been nervous anticipation during the Cardinal's first offensive series, but those nerves turned to trepidation when the defense took the field. The defensive line was reported to be thin, the linebacker rotation was unclear, and the secondary had been weakened by Paulsen Adebo's decision to opt out of the season and an injury to his fellow cornerback, Kyu Blu Kelly. Defensive end Thomas Booker was probably the only potential game changer available on that side of the ball. Even though Oregon would be breaking in five new offensive linemen in front of a new quarterback, this was still Oregon. There was still serious concern.
So when Booker wrapped up running back C.J. Verdell for no gain on 3rd down to end Oregon's first drive and force a punt after just five plays, it was a pleasant surprise even more pleasant than what we'd gotten from the offense.
The Cardinal took over on their own 20, and again they got things started with a solid run up the middle, this time eight yards from Nathaniel Peat. Two plays later West went up top for his second attempt of the day, and this time he connected on a deep ball to wide receiver Brycen Tremayne for 38 yards down the left sideline. This was the beginning of what would be an incredibly promising aspect of Stanford's offensive game plan. With the offensive line looking familiar again and running backs Jones and Peat taking advantage, West -- and later third-stringer Tanner McKee -- took several deep shots throughout the game. The fact that David Shaw and offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard were confident challenging the Oregon secondary even without their starting quarterback bodes well for the rest of the season.
If you were surprised that they were throwing deep with Jack West, you likely fell out of your chair four plays later when Shaw kept the offense out on the field on 4th and 6 from the Oregon 33. If you've been following along, you know the narrative -- fans want Shaw to go for it on 4th down, but Shaw often prefers to punt, even on his opponent's side of the field. When asked about this particular decision after the game, Shaw explained that he doesn't have a cheat sheet that tells him whether or not to punt, but instead makes his decision based on how the team is playing. I have nine years of evidence that tells me otherwise, so it was shocking to see West under center, then not shocking to see him calmly flip a pass over the middle to Jones who turned a 1st down conversion into a 27-yard gain. Two plays later Jones pounded his way into the end zone from four yards out, and the Cardinal had a 7-0 lead.
(Quick note on Austin Jones. He's the real deal, and he's going to have a great season.)
The Oregon offense answered quickly. Quarterback Tyler Shough, who would end up throwing for 227 yards, rushing for 85, and accounting for two touchdowns, opened the drive with a 44-yard pass down the sideline to Mycah Pittman who made an acrobatic one-handed catch at the Stanford 43. Shough and Verdell would take care of the rest of the yardage, and six plays later the game was tied at 7.
A three-and-out for Stanford, this time with Tanner McKee at quarterback, gave the ball back to the Ducks almost immediately, but when Shough threw an interception to linebacker Levani Damuni, West and the Cardinal offense took over at the Oregon 40 looking to take the lead again. Jones ran for ten yards on the first snap, Peat gobbled up seven more on the next, and it was hard not to think that the story of this game -- and season -- might end up being the resurgence of the Stanford offensive line.
Last year's struggles were due to injuries and inexperience. Except on rare occasions, freshmen aren't expected to contribute on the offensive line, but the rash of injuries last fall forced several members of the 2019 recruiting class into early duty. They were predictably ineffective, but not because they lacked talent. They simply weren't ready for the physical and mental demands of Division I college football. This year, however, Walter Rouse, Barrett Miller, Drew Dalman, Branson Bragg, and Foster Sarell are ready. There can be no question about that. Oregon might end up being the best defense the Cardinal faces this season, but this year's edition of The Tunnel Workers Union paved the way for 197 yards rushing and didn't allow a single sack.
After those first two runs, however, the next two plays were incomplete passes, and it was 4th and 3 from the Oregon 23. Even though his team was playing well, particularly the offensive line, Shaw chose to take what appeared to be the easy three points -- but Toner missed his second field goal of the game, this one sliding left, perhaps an overcompensation for the first attempt that had missed so badly to the right.
The game was a few minutes into the second quarter and still tied at seven, but there were signs of concern. The Oregon offense was picking up steam, and on this drive they were picking up yardage in chunks until tailback Cyrus Habibi-Likio somehow fumbled the ball into the air at the Stanford 17 without being touched. Damuni picked up his second turnover of the game, grabbing the ball before it hit the turf, and the Cardinal had the ball back. Unfortunately, Damuni's recovery only delayed the Duck touchdown by a few minutes. Stanford would punt, and Oregon would follow with a 10-play, 96-yard touchdown drive to jump ahead 14-7. They'd take that lead into the locker room.
The start of the second half wasn't as promising as the beginning of the game had been. Oregon took the opening kickoff and put together an efficient drive, marching 75 yards in nine plays. The Stanford defense seemed to be wearing down. They were only able to force a single 3rd down on this drive, and it never felt like the Ducks were bothered by anything happening on the other side of the ball.
And so the Cardinal took their first possession of the second half trailing 21-7, and even with more than twenty-five minutes left to play, it felt like an important drive. On 1st and 10 West looked deep down field and dropped a nice pass into the hands of Simi Fehoko for a 33-yard gain to the Oregon 42, and things were looking bright. The Cardinal offense kept chugging, picking up two more 1st downs before eventually arriving at a decision point on 4th and 6 at the Oregon 17.
It's easy to say that Shaw should've kept the offense out on the field, but it's also understandable that he didn't. The Cardinal offense hadn't produced any points since the second possession of the game, so Shaw chose to send in the field goal unit. It would've been a less controversial decision if Toner had hit his previous two efforts, but when he missed this third attempt narrowly wide right, questions swirled immediately about why Shaw had trusted Toner over West.
Another Oregon touchdown drive stretched the lead to 28-7, and although it was becoming clear that the Stanford defense wasn't going to be able to stop the Ducks, the Stanford offense continued to play well. Perhaps knowing that he needed to open things up a bit more, Shaw went back to Tanner McKee, and McKee didn't disappoint. He unleashed a beautiful pass to Fehoko for a 46-yard gain to the Oregon 29, and the Cardinal was in business.
McKee had originally committed to Stanford as part of the 2018 recruiting class, but only arrived on campus this summer after a two-year LDS mission in Brazil. He was an elite prospect coming out of high school, and even though there were no expectations that he would contribute this season, the early reports from summer camp were that he was the real deal, so it was nice to see him out on the field on Saturday night.
The drive continued deep into Duck territory, but when the Cardinal arrived at 1st and goal at the Oregon 2, everything went haywire. The Stanford offensive line had been playing well all night long, but suddenly David Shaw (and it was likely Shaw calling the red zone plays and not Pritchard) seemed to show his scars from 2019. Instead of just giving the ball four times to some combination of Peat and Jones, McKee went to the end zone lob. His first attempt to Fehoko fell incomplete, and it wasn't surprising. What J.J. Arcega-Whiteside did in those situations was not normal, and right now there isn't a dominant 6'7" tight end capable of dwarfing defensive backs. On top of those personnel issues, we can be sure that McKee and the first-team receivers had had few reps together of any kind, and almost certainly no red zone reps.
But things got worse. An Oregon penalty on the next play brought the ball even closer to the end zone, but even on 2nd and goal from the one-yard line, McKee ran the same play to Fehoko -- and this time the receiver was called for a crushing pass interference penalty, pushing the ball all the way back to the 16. Two plays later it was 4th and goal from the 9, and even though it shouldn't have been decision time, it was.
Down by three touchdowns with only 12:08 to play in a game in which his defense couldn't stop the Oregon offense, there can be only one explanation for why Shaw sent Toner out to attempt a field goal. I have to believe that he decided that this was no longer a winnable game for his team, so he at least needed to salvage something. The hope was that Toner would hit the chipshot field goal and have something positive to think about through the next week.
But he missed. He missed his fourth field goal of the game. Afterwards Shaw expressed support for his kicker, but he did not mince words. "Jet had a bad game." Yes, he did. We can't assume the rest of the game would've played out the way it did surrounding those four missed field goals, but it was hard to look at the 28-7 score without adding twelve points (or sixteen points, assuming a touchdown had Shaw chosen to run the ball from the 1 yard line on 2nd and goal).
After Oregon's Camden Lewis missed a 37-yard field goal on Oregon's next possession, presumably just as a show of solidarity with his fellow kicker, the Cardinal finally converted a scoring opportunity. Peat took a handoff at the 20 and raced 73 yards to the Oregon 7, but this time Shaw didn't mess around. Jones ran the ball twice and found the end zone to cut the lead to 28-14 with 7:39 to play.
There was a glimmer of hope, but only a glimmer, and the Ducks snuffed out any thoughts of a Cardinal comeback by waltzing 73 yards on nine plays for the final score of the game. Oregon 35, Stanford 14.
Stanford has now lost five games in a row stretching back to last season, the longest such streak since the Cardinal lost eleven straight from the end of 2005 to deep into 2006. The good news, though, is that even though the defense struggled through the second half, the offense gave plenty of reason for optimism.
The Cardinal breached the Oregon 35 seven times, and while the disappointing return on those seven possessions cannot be ignored, the fact that they produced six legitimate scoring opportunities without their starting quarterback is certainly a positive. Also, the nature of those drives -- long and sustained built with strong offensive line play, physical running, and opportunistic passing to dynamic wide receivers -- bodes well for the remaining six games, none of which will feature a defense as strong as Oregon's.
It's never fun to start a season 0-1, but victories are coming.