Two of the most impressive winning streaks in the history of Stanford football came to an end last season, nine straight wins over Cal and eleven straight over UCLA, but there's still one active conference streak that remains intact. David Shaw has never lost to Oregon State, and Stanford has beaten the Beavers ten times in row overall, with their last loss a 38-28 defeat in 2009. Oregon State has been at or near the bottom of the conference for much of that time, but they've still managed to give the Cardinal some tough games -- 27-23 in 2012, 15-14 in 2017, and 31-28 in 2019. It doesn't seem like it's ever been easy.
Expect another tough game on Saturday night. While the Cardinal has been struggling over the past couple seasons, head coach Jonathan Smith has been building something in Corvallis. After just two wins in his first season, the Beavers won five games last year, and although they've got just two wins in the this fractured season, one of those victories is over Oregon, only the second in the last thirteen tries against their rivals from Eugene. From the outside looking in, this seems like a program that's coming.
Even so, and even though running back Jermar Jefferson scares me to death (675 yards and 7 touchdowns in four games, including 226 and 2 against Oregon), I just can't stop thinking about the new and improved Stanford offense.
Davis Mills will be missing two of his top wide receivers, Michael Wilson and Connor Wedington, but the tremendous depth in that unit along with the resurgence of the offensive line and running game should be enough to make up for those losses. If they can put up 31 against the Washington defense, they should be able to score just as much against Oregon State. I've got Stanford winning a high scoring game, 38-30.
For another look at things, here's our old friend angry, the curator of angrybeavs.com, the most active fan site in the Pac-12. (You can check out my answers to his questions about the Cardinal over there.) Anyway, here's angry...
GMC:
It probably isn’t fair to evaluate a program based on anything that’s happened in 2020, but I’m going to ask anyway. Things seem to be going in the right direction under Coach Jonathan Smith. Would you agree?
angry:
Begrudgingly would agree. Smith has made a handful of really bad (overly aggressive) calls that have resulted in loses. Recruiting has been better with 3-star players being the floor now. In the past, OSU would recruit a handful of 2-star guys each cycle. We're seeing that end. This is good. Any team can win big with legit 3-star talent and good coaching. Whether Smith is a good coach, I'm not yet sure. In-game management he is bad. But the team does seem well-coached otherwise.
GMC:
How has Covid impacted the team this season?
angry:
There's been no direct impact other than Jamar Jefferson missing the Utah game. Indirectly, Washington and Cal getting canceled eliminated the outside shot the Beavs had at winning the North.
GMC:
What can we expect from the quarterback position this weekend? Will Tristan Gebbia be back, or will it be Chance Nolan again? Tell me a little bit about the quarterback you expect to play as well as the significance of this decision.
angry:
Gebbia is out for the year. Nolan looked very shaky in his first start. He was lobbing the ball, overthrowing guys, and every time the play was called in he'd squint and look confused. He looked best when running. My theory is you need four starts to judge a QB, so the verdict is still out, but he didn't look good game 1.
GMC:
The bigger injury issue facing the Beavers is probably Jermar Jefferson. Do you expect him to be back for Saturday’s game? If so, describe his strengths. How has he had such success? If he’s out, who will replace him, and how much will that affect the Oregon State offense?
angry:
He will be back, yes. His strengths are he has great vision, and he is shifty. He will run into the line, and you think there's no way the play goes anywhere, and he comes out the other side and gets into the secondary. It's fantastic. He can break long runs if he has some open field to get a head start. He's overall just a really solid all around running back. If he's out BJ Baylor will replace him. He's a good, shifty runner and good pass catcher. Not a huge drop off but some.
GMC:
The Stanford defense has shown a tendency to give up at least two or three big plays through the air each game. Who are the Oregon State receivers who might take advantage of this?
angry:
Probably Tyjon Lindsey. The Beavs haven't used him much, which is a shame because he is their best deep threat and a former 4-star recruit. Tre'Shaun Harrison should play his first game for OSU on Saturday as well. He's a former 4-star recruit from Florida State. Very good speed. Since we haven't seen him yet, it's hard to say if he's a threat, but on paper and film he appears to be a guy who fits your question.
GMC:
How about the Oregon State defense? How has that unit been playing, and who are the impact players on that side of the ball?
angry:
They have improved as the year goes on. Omar Speights and Avery Roberts stand out.
GMC:
In your time watching Oregon State football, who has been your favorite player and why?
angry:
Haha. Interesting question. Probably Sammie Stroughter. He went through a lot personally and excelled despite it, and he was so fluid and fast. Just a great guy and fun player to watch.
GMC:
Finally, what is your prediction for the game? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
angry:
My final is 24-21, though I'm not sure which team wins it. If Jefferson is 100% I'm going Beavs.
