There were two long streaks lost during Stanford football's lost season of 2019 -- nine straight wins over Cal and eleven straight wins in ten years over UCLA. The loss to Cal was probably more painful because there was part of me that thought that streak might go on forever, but the UCLA streak was fun because it was so improbable. It just didn't make sense for a program like UCLA to lose eleven straight games to anyone, and while there were certainly times when the game between the Cardinal and the Bruins highlighted the large gap between the teams, it was still... unnatural. It was never a streak meant to last.
In my previews of the last four games in the rivalry, I enjoyed writing about an imagined young boy named Kevin and his UCLA parents, Joe and Betty. In the world I created, Kevin had been born during the closing moments of UCLA's last win over the Cardinal back in 2008, and he passed one milestone after another, all without celebrating a win over Stanford.
Now that the streak is finally over, I'm sure 12-year-old Kevin has probably lost interest. While he'll likely spend his evening watching TikToks in between sessions of Among Us with his friends, his parents will be glued to the screen. Both Stanford and UCLA have already announced that they won't accept any postseason invitations. For each team, this is the end, and each team will look to use this final game to erase the might-have-beens that have plagued them through 2020.
Stanford's struggles have been well-documented here. We know that Davis Mills should've played in the opener against Oregon and should've been able to practice during the week leading up to the Colorado game the next week. It's easy to envision an undefeated season for the Cardinal.
UCLA, on the other hand, didn't lose a single game to Covid. In fact, they even received a gift-wrapped win in Week 2 when Utah couldn't play and Pac-12 delivered a beleaguered Cal squad on 48 hours notice. But when the Bruins look back on this season, they'll remember that their three losses were by a total of just 14 points and featured eleven turnovers. One of those losses was just last week against rival USC, when the Bruins took a 12-point lead into the fourth quarter only to be outscored 20-3 over the final twelve minutes.
Considering all that -- and after what we saw in the "conference championship game" between Oregon and USC, Stanford and UCLA just might be the two best teams in the PAC-12, and tonight's game will certainly be entertaining.
UCLA's offense features the two things that Stanford fans have come to fear the most, a mobile quarterback (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) and a dominant running back (Demetric Felton). DTR has rushed for at least 49 yards in each of the four games he's played (and topped 300 yards passing twice), and although Felton's slowed down a bit recently, he did have back to back games of 167 yards against Oregon and 206 against Arizona.
All of that scares me to death, but I have faith in the strides we've seen from the Stanford offense over the past three weeks. For the first time a year or two, this group seems to know who they are, and I can't wait to watch them reintroduce themselves to the Bruin defense. If Stanford's going to emerge from the Rose Bowl with another win -- the last time they lost a game in that stadium was the 2014 Rose Bowl against Michigan State -- it will be Davis Mills, Austin Jones, and the offensive line that delivers it. I'm predicting 240 yards passing for Mills, 120 yards rushing for Jones, and a 34-31 shootout win for Stanford.
For a look at things from the other side of the field, I reached out to the coolest blogger I know, Mike Regalado of Bruin Report Online. (You can also find Mike hosting the What's Bruin Show podcast and The Ska Disco on KQBH. How he found time for my questions, I'll never know.) Anyway, here's Mike...
At this point this is Chip Kelly’s program with Chip Kelly’s players. As his third year comes to a close, what’s the current view? Has UCLA gotten what it paid for?
I'm not sure that UCLA has exactly "gotten what it paid for" except when it comes to having the best meal plan in the country, but after going 7-17 in his first two seasons, being 3-3 currently is an improvement. But it is not just an improved record that Kelly displayed this season as the Bruins have had positive developments on offense and defense. On offense, UCLA has quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading the charge and he has been putting up some big numbers through the air. He also has Demetric Felton who is not only one of the best running backs in the Pac-12, he is one of the best all-purpose players in the country. Then there is the defense, which to be honest, I did not think would be better this season. They smashed those expectations with an effective pass rush and a 4-2-5 scheme which has it flying all over the field. In summation, Kelly bought himself some time this season.
GMC:
I’ve argued that UCLA will be the best team Stanford plays this season, and I think I could make a good argument that the Bruins are secretly the best team in the conference, regardless of what happened last weekend. Are you with me?
In trying to be completely objective, I would disagree slightly in that UCLA is the best team in the Pac-12 specifically because of its turnover issues. In all three losses, UCLA committed 11 of its 12 turnovers. Those were a large part of what led to the losses, and right now it's hard to argue that UCLA is better than Colorado, Oregon, and USC. But, looking at how the Bruins played in each game and knowing that it could have won all three of those, I can understand where you are coming from. The development, as noted above, has done wonders for UCLA and have the program on an upward trajectory.
GMC:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson seems to have improved nicely from year to year. What’s the biggest difference you see in him this year?
Honestly, I have seen his progress on the incline since his first season. Entering 2020, we had questions about his decision making and turnovers, which he still has, but his athleticism, ability to see the field, arm strength, and confidence have all improved this season. With that in mind, one might wonder what would have happened if he was not sidelined for two weeks with COVID-related issues.
Another concern for the Cardinal defense is Demetric Felton. His overall numbers are great, but he seems to have been a bit inconsistent, running for 206 yards in Week 4 and then just 41 in Week 5. How would you describe his season, and what do you expect to see from on Saturday?
Felton is another that exceeded expectations. How do you replace a guy like Joshua Kelley who pretty much carried the running game for UCLA last season? With even better numbers. But as you brought up, his numbers are inconsistent and that is only because he was "banged up" in practice that week and we also saw him hold his leg at hobble off the field at the end of the Week 4 game, so the Week 5 numbers seem to be linked to an injury. Still, Felton, DTR, and running back Brittain Brown have found ways to keep the offense moving on the ground.
The resurgence of Stanford’s offense has largely been driven by improvement in the offensive line and the running game. How has UCLA’s defensive front seven performed this year? Who are the stars there, and how do you expect this matchup to play out?
It is interesting because run defense was pretty much UCLA's biggest weapon on that side of the ball the last few years. It has continued to be stout especially with Osa Odighizuwa clogging up the middle. Where it gets really interesting is that three transfers (first year in the system) Mitchell Agude, Caleb Johnson, and Qwuantrezz Knight have been the three players that made the most impact in the pass rush aside from Odighizuwa, but they come from the linebacker and nickel positions. What that has led to is UCLA being 8th in the nation in sacks per game and 24th in tackles for a loss. The key for UCLA to beat Stanford is if the Bruins can disrupt Mills and the offense.
What did last year’s win over Stanford mean for the program and the fanbase, if anything?
It was good for UCLA to break the 11-game win streak by Stanford, but I think at that point, fans only cared that Kelly was finally able to get a second win in 2019. At least now, fans don't have to think back to the Rick Neuheisel era to remember its last win over the Cardinal.
In the time that you’ve been watching UCLA football, who’s your favorite player and why?
I can never answer that question as there have been so many players in so many positions in many different eras, it seems that there is a favorite player for all seasons. In the last 20 years, Maurice Jones-Drew has got to be one of my favorite running backs simply because he was poetry in motion, but Joshua Kelley is definitely in that conversation as he was always a ray of sunshine in interviews (and he has the most rushing yards of any player in the UCLA-USC series). I also like Brett Hundley, simply because of how he carried himself and his team. Defensively, linebacker Eric Kendricks might be my favorite recent player. He was simply a workhorse which led to him being the program's all-time tackler.
GMC:
Finally, who wins on Saturday? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
Stanford's quiet emergence in the last few weeks, especially as it is a program with no home, has really shown its toughness and with Davis Mills, it will give UCLA's secondary a hard time. Yet, I cannot help to think that the Bruins' defense is why it will be successful going forward. It has been quite a while since there was something to be happy about with defense. With that being said, I think UCLA will edge out Stanford, 35-33.
