As the Cardinal headed into last season's matchup with the Washington Huskies, they carried questions with them. They were 2-3, they were without their starting quarterback, and many felt they were without the identity that had produced so much success over the previous decade. They emerged with a 23-13 victory that seemed to provide not only answers but also optimism heading into the second half of the season. It felt like a clear turning point, and the closing lines of my game recap reflected that:
...the future looks much different than it did a few days ago. While a ten-year bowl streak once seemed to be in jeopardy, the Cardinal now sits at 3-3 and won't have to leave Palo Alto until the second Saturday of November. They play just twice in the next twenty days, and it isn't inconceivable that they could win the next four games before hosting Cal on November 23rd.
It's foolish to think that far head, though, so instead we'll focus on what we know for sure after this 23-13 victory. Stanford Football is alive and well.
That optimism, it turned out, was short lived. The Cardinal lost five of six games to finish the season at 4-8, and their four-game losing streak to close 2019 stretched to six after losing the first two games to start 2020. Before 2019, David Shaw had never endured a losing streak as long as three games; last week's win over Cal was the program's first victory in more than a calendar year.
So while there are lots of individual issues facing different aspects of the program, they all fall under one larger question -- which stretch of games is more reflective of Stanford Football under David Shaw: 64-16 from 2011-2016, 18-9 in 2017 and 2018, or 4-10 in 2019 and the first two games of this season?
No matter what happens in Saturday's game against the Huskies, we won't wake up on Sunday morning with a clear answer. I will say this, however -- the Huskies are the perfect opponent for the Cardinal right now. For a program that was a fixture at the top of the Pac-12 North for years, there is no better measuring stick than the team that appears to be not just the best in the division but probably the best in the conference.
The Huskies might not have been dominant -- they've got a convincing win over Arizona bookended by narrow wins over Oregon State and Utah -- but they're still 3-0. Their balanced offense and aggressive defense will pose stiff challenges for the Cardinal on both sides of the ball. If Stanford is to get another optimism-building win, the recipe will have to be the same as it ever was. The offense will have to be efficient enough not just to stay on the field but more importantly to score points. If we see continued strides from quarterback Davis Mills as well as more consistency from the offensive line, the Cardinal could carve out enough of a time of possession advantage to protect its undermanned defense. If that happens, the key to the game will be red zone success. David Shaw has always said that time of possession isn't important, but time of possession plus scoring is. I'll amend that: Time of possession plus scoring is good, but time of possession plus touchdowns is better -- and necessary for this edition of the Stanford Cardinal.
All of that is possible, but based on the body of work of the two teams, it seems unlikely. I expect the Cardinal to continue the progress we saw last week, but I don't think it will be enough to get past the Huskies. The prediction here is Washington 31, Stanford 17.
For another look at the game from a Washington perspective, I reached out to John Sayles from the UW Dawgpound. (You can also jump over to their site to read my answer to his questions about the Cardinal.) Read on...
Go Mighty Card:
In general, how is the season going for the Huskies, and how have they been affected by Covid?
UW Dawgpound:
The Huskies are 3-0, but I don’t think many UW fans think this team has looked “great.” They’ve been good. Sometimes they’ve been bad, especially at stopping the run, and versus Utah last week they played a really sloppy first half. Fans, I think, want to see some consistency this week before they will gain confidence that this team will win a Pac-12 title. UW has stayed pretty Covid free, with just a couple of depth players opting out of the season. They have missed just one game, the season opener at Cal, with the Apple Cup vs. WSU getting replaced by Utah playing in Seattle last Saturday.
GMC:
How has the transition been to the new head coach? What similarities or differences are you seeing under Jimmy Lake?
UW Dawgpound:
The best thing about the transition is that it’s Chris Petersen’s staff, so everyone (essentially) is back. The biggest change is the new offensive coordinator John Donovan, but it’s clear that the offensive mindset Lake was looking for in a hire was similar to a Petersen offensive scheme. As head coaches, they are the same in so many ways, which is expected since Lake has been under Chris Petersen since 2013 at Boise State. Same offense, same defense. Lake has been very aggressive in terms of faking punts and not conceding a knee at the end of a half. But the sample size is very small, and he may realize that some risks are not worth taking.
GMC:
Tell me about quarterback Dylan Morris. What are his strengths and weaknesses?
UW Dawgpound:
I like this dude. He’s got a little edge to him, and what I love in a quarterback (and defenses HATE) is a quarterback who moves well in the pocket and extends plays. UW’s quarterback last season (Jacob Eason), for all his worldly gifts of arm talent, could never move in the pocket, and the offense was really limited because of that. I’d say Morris is pretty similar to Jake Browning, with a stronger arm than even pre-injury (2016) Browning. Not quite the level of savvy or accuracy, but close. He’s gonna make some mistakes. He’ll been fooled by coverage he thinks he reads, and has really struggled with his long ball, but Washington has a good looking freshman quarterback, and he should get better.
GMC:
The Huskies seem to be employing a whole squad of running backs. What can we look for from McGrew, Pleasant, and Newton?
UW Dawgpound:
We don’t really know who we’ll see the most of. Pleasant will get a lot of action because he’s super well-rounded (great at pass protection, good receiver), but the guys who can pop the big runs are Richard Newton and Sean McGrew. Newton got zero snaps last week, which was surprising. The offensive rotation was smaller at all the skill positions in comparison to the first two games, and Lake just said “that’s going to happen” in terms of Newton not getting in the Utah game. McGrew is an explosive, smaller runner with great power. He seems to get loose for a long run or two in every game dating back to late last year. Cameron Davis is technically RB4, but you can call him 1D, meaning all four UW backs are pretty equal; but their styles differ.
GMC:
I read somewhere recently that this is one of the fastest overall teams in recent Husky history. Do you agree with that? How do you expect that speed to impact the game on Saturday?
UW Dawgpound:
There’s no John Ross, and Jake Locker isn’t running a 4.4 down the middle of the field, but I guess the speed is greater overall when you look at the entire roster. There is a ton of speed in the secondary, and the massive offensive line can run too. But for speed to really come into play, it starts with making blocks and getting off blocks so that the speed can be utilized. And speed between the ears: Reacting and playing fast.
GMC:
Stanford’s offensive line is talented but young — how is Washington’s front seven? Who are the stars on defense, and how do you expect them to attack Davis Mills and the Stanford offense?
UW Dawgpound:
#58 Zion Tupuola-Fetui, aka ZTF, is having a monster season. He kind of came out of nowhere (just a few tackles, mostly on special teams as a freshman in 2019) and wasn’t even listed as a starter on the depth chart behind Laiatu Latu, who has been unable to suit up so far. In Latu’s place, all ZTF does is rack up two sacks in game one. Then he gets two more in game two. And against Utah, he powers his way to 3 more sacks. Seven sacks, and three forced fumbles in three games. He’s just been a genuine nightmare for offensive tackles. No idea if he can keep up anything near this pace, but he has been a really good story. The rest of the defensive line has been very good, with some lapses. They have been a little thin there the last couple weeks. Lake & Co. will attack Mills with a ton of looks, but mostly their disguised combo of zone and man, utilizing seven (or even eight) in coverage. They’ll try to get pressure with generally a four man rush. Stanford will be tempted to run the football when Mills sees the light front, so expect Shaw to explore what Oregon State and Utah were able to do against the Huskies on the ground.
GMC:
If you had to pick one player who will turn the game for the Huskies, who would it be?
UW Dawgpound:
I’m going with the quarterback, because quarterback play is why Washington has had so much trouble with Stanford the past few seasons. Since Browning put on a master class performance in 2016, UW quarterback play has cost the Huskies in two of the past three seasons. Jacob Eason had his lowest QBR of 2019 in a lousy performance on the Farm last season, and Browning was not great in 2017 as the Huskies went nearly the final three quarters without a point. Morris needs to continue to be aggressive and fearless, but smart at the same time. That’s asking a lot, but it’s what you have to be able to do when teams want to stifle your running attack.
GMC:
Finally, how do you expect the game to go? Give me your predicted final score and your best explanation as to how we get there.
UW Dawgpound:
It’s Stanford/UW, so I expect a fight in the trenches. Usually the team that wins that battle – especially in the second half -- is going to control things, and eventually get the win. Washington 27, Stanford 23.
