As we teeter on the knife's edge of the Covid-19 pandemic, all of us wondering if things will get better or worse, I'm no different than the rest of you. I find myself constantly thinking about first and lasts. Last week I went to a movie theater for the first time in sixteen months; the last time I went to a college or pro sporting event was almost two years ago. Once upon a time we measured our lives with candles on birthday cakes or family weddings or high school graduations, but now it seems we count the opportunities lost rather than the celebrations enjoyed.
One of the things that I long for, as insignificant as it may be in the grand scheme of things, is a normal college football season this fall. I'd like to hear actual crowds when I'm watching on television, I'd like see fans in the stands -- I'd like to be in the stands at some point. I'd like to be able to track a Stanford football season without some more compassionate part of my brain wondering why we're having a season in the first place.
I want normal. We all do.
The surest sign that the college football world is returning to normal is that Stanford will be playing the most hellacious schedule in all of America. Many schools like to brag when they don't schedule any lower division teams (you don't hear those brags from the mighty SEC, however), but Stanford will be the only Power 5 school in the nation to play a schedule comprised exclusively of Power 5 opponents, a slate which looks even more daunting considering we don't yet know who the Cardinal quarterback will be. There are no trap games; there are only landmines waiting at every step. Let's take a look. (Odds of Victory percentages refer to the Cardinal's projected chances of winning according to two reputable sources -- ESPN's Matchup Predictor and me.)
Stanford vs. Kansas State (Arlington, TX) -- Saturday, September 4th at 9:00am
Kansas State in 2020: 4-6 overall, 4-5 in the Big XII
All-Time Series: Stanford leads, 1-0
Last Matchup: Stanford 26, Kansas State 13 (2016)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 59.5%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 60%
Kansas State was added to the 2021 schedule a few years back, but it was only recently that this matchup was chosen for the All-State Kickoff Classic and moved to Jerry Jones's version of the Taj Mahal. David Shaw's initial reaction to this was enthusiastic, as he was excited for his players to have the opportunity to play in AT&T Stadium in what would essentially be a bowl game to start the season.
But then the fine people at Fox stepped in and set an 11:00am kickoff, which translates to 9:00am Stanford time. The normally reserved Shaw was not pleased, and he didn't hold back when asked about the change:
"I am pissed at Fox for our kickoff time against Kansas State. For Stanford in particular and Oregon to be going and playing in a different time zone, and give us an early kickoff, to me, is incredibly disrespectful. And it shows a lack of understanding of what we have to do, and the way that time difference truly affects us. It shows a lack of care for our student athletes.
“That, to me, is something that is egregious, and I don’t care who I piss off, but I think they’re wrong. A lot of our people in our conference are upset too. [Fox] can say whatever they want to say. I don’t want to hear shit about, ‘Oh, it’s great ratings.’ I don’t care about the ratings... This is either complete disregard, or lack of understanding how difficult it is to be a West Coast team that travels east and gets forced to play an early kickoff game.”
None of that, of course, has anything to do with the team the Cardinal will face that day, but the external variable that concerns Shaw could end up being just as big a factor as anything that happens on the field. Time will tell. (See what I did there?)
Stanford at USC -- Saturday, September 11th at 7:30pm
USC in 2020: 5-1
All-Time Series: USC leads, 62-33-3
Last Matchup: USC 45, Stanford 20 (2019)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 25.7%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 20%
There are three things that I know about the 2021 USC Trojans:
- Kedon Slovis is back and will likely throw for 4,000 yards.
- USC will always, always, always have at least three NFL-ready wide receivers.
- USC fans will spend the entire season waiting (and hoping) for head coach Clay Helton to be fired.
Keeping all this in mind, this isn't a good matchup for a Stanford team with question marks on both sides of the ball. This will be a huge test, and it's unfortunate that -- as usual -- it comes this early in the season.
Stanford at Vanderbilt -- Saturday, September 18th at 5:00pm
Vanderbilt in 2020: 0-9
All-Time Series: No previous matchups.
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 73.4%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 85%
This series was scheduled back when former Shaw assistant Derek Mason was the Commodores' head coach, and this game would've been a nice reunion. But Mason was fired after an 0-9 season in 2020, and he's now the defensive coordinator at Auburn, making this game decidedly less interesting. Vanderbilt would appear to be a soft opponent, but Stanford's recent regular season performances in the eastern two time zones (losses at Wake Forest, Northwestern, and Central Florida, but big wins at Army and Duke) gives reason for at least mild concern. The good news is that it's a late kickoff, so jet lag likely won't be a problem.
Stanford vs. UCLA-- Saturday, September 25th
UCLA in 2020: 3-4
All-Time Series: UCLA leads, 46-43-3
Last Matchup: Stanford 48, UCLA 47 (2020)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 59.6%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 59.7%
I just read the recap of last year's Stanford-UCLA game, and it was even more preposterous than I remembered. Equally preposterous is what's been going on at UCLA for the past several years. The Bruins are 10-21 under Chip Kelly, who was hired to resurrect a stagnant program, but injuries, inconsistency, and youth have plagued the system to the point that it's difficult to evaluate what's going on. Has the conference caught up to Kelly, or have the Bruins just been unlucky? This season will almost certainly provide the answers. Now in his fourth year, Kelly will be coaching a roster filled almost completely with players he and his staff recruited, including quarterback Dorian Thompson Robinson, who promises to be one of the most electric players in the conference this fall. If Kelly can't produce results this season, the administration might find it increasingly difficult to justify retaining the state of California's second-highest paid individual. (UCLA head basketball coach Mark Cronin is the highest paid, but he just took the Bruins to the Final Four and will likely have a better team this year.)
Stanford vs. Oregon -- Saturday, October 2nd
Oregon in 2020: 4-3 overall, 3-2 in the Pac-12
All-Time Series: Stanford leads, 49-34-1
Last Matchup: Oregon 35, Stanford 14 (2020)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 30.6%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 40%
I'll mention this here for the very last time -- the Oregon Ducks were lucky that the Pac-12 botched Stanford's Covid testing prior to last season's game, or else they might not have been able to back their way into the conference championship game. That being said, the Ducks are still the program to watch in the Pac-12 North, and this game will tell us everything we need to know about the Cardinal. The Stanford starting quarterback, whoever he is, and the reconfigured offensive line will have played four games at this point in the season, enough that they could be hitting their stride heading into the most challenging conference game of the year. I can't wait.
Stanford at Arizona State -- Friday, October 8th at 7:30pm
Arizona State in 2020: 2-2
All-Time Series: Arizona State leads, 17-15
Last Matchup: Stanford 20, Arizona State 13 (2018)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 29.7%
Stanford's Odds of Victory: 40%
The most shocking thing about this game is that ESPN's Matchup Predictor puts the Cardinal's chances for victory roughly the same as in the games against Oregon, USC, and Notre Dame. Is Arizona State really in that same neighborhood? After their Covid-riddled campaign last season it's difficult to see why there's so much optimism.
There is an interesting side note to this game, but it's something that could be the main headline come October. Arizona State is currently under investigation for some rather serious recruiting violations which also include blatant disregard for the conference Covid protocols. Among other violations, the word is that the Sun Devil staff allegedly sneaked recruits into ASU home games when stadiums were supposed to be empty. David Shaw, who has long been the moral compass of the Pac-12, spoke out forcefully last month: “It’s a disrespectful thing to do.That doesn’t sound overly harsh. But for me being a lifer in this profession and a coach’s kid, I believe in respecting our profession and respecting the other people in the profession.” I'm guessing this storyline will expand over the next three months, and Shaw will get more than a few questions about it when Stanford arrives in Tempe.
Stanford at Washington State -- Saturday, October 16th
Washington State in 2020: 1-3
All-Time Series: Stanford leads, 40-29-1
Last Matchup: Washington State 49, Stanford 22 (2019)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 57.5%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 67%
I think you could make the case that for Washington State this season is one of the most important in the last decade or so. What will this program be without Mike Leach? Will second-tier quarterbacks still transfer into the Palouse and blossom into cult heroes on their way to the NFL? Or will the Cougars return to mediocrity? Last season's disappointment will be forgotten if things come together for them this fall, but if they don't, Wazzou might spend a few years at the bottom of the division.
Stanford vs. Washington -- Saturday, October 30th
Washington in 2020: 3-1
All-Time Series: Stanford leads, 44-43-4
Last Matchup: Stanford 31, Washington 26 (2020)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 48.7%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 55%
Three of Stanford's four victories in 2020 were a bit sweaty, especially the wins over Cal and UCLA, but that wasn't the case at all with the Washington game, which wasn't nearly as close as the score might indicate. It was the Cardinal's best overall performance by far, and it was the Huskies' only loss of the season. Washington will come to the Farm looking for revenge, but they won't find it.
Stanford vs. Utah -- Friday, November 5th at 7:30pm
Utah in 2020: 3-2
All-Time Series: Utah leads, 5-4
Last Matchup: Utah 40, Stanford 21 (2018)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 47.7%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 25%
This is never a game that I look forward to. That's all I have to say about that.
Stanford at Oregon State -- Saturday, November 13th
Oregon State in 2020: 2-5
All-Time Series: Stanford leads, 59-25-3
Last Matchup: Stanford 27, Oregon State 24 (2020)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 59.5%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 50%
I really like Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, and he seems to have the program headed in the right direction, but things are tough in the Pac-12 North. We'll obviously know a lot more about both teams by the time we get to November, but right now this game is concerning. It seems like a game the Cardinal should win, but Corvallis has never been a comfortable place for Stanford to play even during the best of times. This is a toss up.
Stanford vs. California -- Saturday, November 20th
Cal in 2020: 1-3
All-Time Series: Stanford leads, 66-44-10
Last Matchup: Stanford 24, Cal 23 (2020)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 73%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 100%
If we're being honest, it still hurts a bit that Stanford's winning streak in the series wasn't able to reach double digits, but I take some solace that a new streak started last fall and propelled the Cardinal to a four-game winning streak and a respectable finish to one of the most difficult seasons imaginable. Think for a minute what might've happened if Thomas Booker hasn't blocked that final extra point... But Thomas Booker did block that extra point, the Cardinal did reclaim the Axe, and the Earth did return to its proper axis. Expect more of the same.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame -- Saturday, November 27th
Notre Dame in 2020: 10-2 overall, 9-0 in the ACC
All-Time Series: Notre Dame lead, 20-13
Last Matchup: Notre Dame 45, Stanford 24 (2019)
ESPN's Odds of Victory: 27.5%
GMC's Odds of Victory: 20%
I don't even know what to say about this game. I like this series, not because of the manufactured rivalry but because it allows us to measure the Stanford program against the nation's elite. (USC used to serve this purpose also, but not anymore.) Notre Dame is a program that fancies itself to be the equal of schools like Clemson and Ohio State and Alabama, and even though the reality is that no Notre Dame player was alive the last time the school celebrated a national championship, it's also true that Stanford is no longer on the same level as the Irish, having lost decisively the last two times the schools have played. Perhaps this game will show that things have changed and that the Cardinal is once again ready to compete against the best teams in America. Or perhaps it won't.
