It was, without question, the most preposterous game of the David Shaw Era. Playing UCLA in an empty Rose Bowl was strange enough, but the ebb and flow of that final game of the 2020 season defied all logic. After thoroughly dominating the first half, the Cardinal fell apart in the third quarter before regaining its footing in the fourth quarter to force an overtime in which they'd appear to have the game salted away before botching things enough that defeat once again seemed certain until a heroic finish saved the victory in the end. If that sentence made your head spin, it was nothing compared to the actual game.
I asked David Shaw at Media Day if he had ever been involved in a game that swung so wildly so many times, and his answer wasn't surprising:
Never. Never. Not how drastic that was. Because at the beginning of the game, we were on fire. Offensively -- running, throwing everything was great, defensively we got stops. The starting quarterback gets hurt for them, who is just a dangerous guy. And we played even better. And then for some reason we couldn't stop the run. And Chip, of course, does a great job, and has always been good against us, found a couple of things that were working for 'em and exploited a couple of things. And offensively we hadn't turned the ball over much all year and then to turn it over three times and one for a pick six. But then right at the end again, turn it around. Get a big time defensive stop to get the ball back, march down to get the game-tying score, and then overtime, just being brave. So many guys stepped up to big time plays, Dalyn Wade-Perry getting the fumble recovery. Stephon Herron making that play to force the fumble and then the play at the end of the game to come down -- we hadn't stopped the run for two quarters, and he makes the biggest run stop of the game. Those guys stepping up in those big critical moments were huge.
This series has certainly had its share of dramatic finishes, and aside from the debacle of 2019, it's been one-sided in Stanford's favor, with the Bruins bearing the brunt of the Cardinal's resurgence and losing 12 of 13 games going back to 2009, a stunning streak of dominance that's closed the all-time series to just a three-game edge for UCLA. There have been thrashings (35-0 in 2010, 45-19 in 2011) and nail biters (a missed field goal gave Stanford the Pac-12 Championship in 2021, a late touchdown from Ryan Burns to a new kid named J.J. Arcega-Whiteside capped a 22-13 comeback in 2016), but the games have almost always come up Cardinal.
What happens today at Stanford remains to be seen, but what we know for sure is that the Cardinal will be playing in Stanford Stadium for the first time in seven games, and in front of home fans for the first time since Thanksgiving weekend of 2019. There are rumors that student attendance could set a record for this game, likely driven by the fact that half of the current students have never seen a live game and that the frosh class is 30-40% larger than a typical year. I can't imagine the stadium will be as raucous as a Stanford-Oregon game during the Andrew Luck era, but it should definitely give the Cardinal a boost.
Once upon a time the prospects of a Stanford win in this game looked slim. UCLA opened with two impressive wins over Hawai'i and LSU while the Cardinal was stumbling against Kansas State, and the teams appeared to be headed in opposite directions. But now that Stanford has righted the ship with wins over USC and Vanderbilt behind what appears to be the best quarterback in the Pac-12, optimism has returned to the Farm. Meanwhile, UCLA's troubling loss to Fresno State last Saturday has raised questions in Westwood.
None of this is to say that the Cardinal will cruise on Saturday, as there are several areas of concern. The Bruins are averaging more than 190 yards per game on the ground, a strength that pairs nicely (for UCLA fans) with Stanford's biggest defensive weakness. In addition to that, David Shaw announced that not one, not two, but three Stanford running backs (Austin Jones, EJ Smith, and Casey Filkins) will be unavailable today, creating a depth chart that features only Nathaniel Peat and sophomore Caleb Robinson, whose next carry will be his first.
Regarding those losses at running back, the natural first thought is for the running game, but I'm actually more concerned about the ripple effects elsewhere. Pass protection is a critical skill for Stanford running backs, and this has been a huge and underrated strength for Jones. Peat is also great, but what will happen when other backs are asked to do this? We'll certainly see more of fullbacks Jay Symonds and Houston Heimuli, especially on passing downs, but will these changes make McKee more vulnerable to the blitz?
Special teams has been a strength for Stanford in the early going, especially in the return game, but those spots are shuffled around. Peat has been great returning kickoffs, but his expected increase in carries might preclude him from kick returns. Casey Filkins has been electric on punt return, averaging 16.6 yards per touch, but he'll be on the sidelines. What has been an advantage thus far, will be a question mark this afternoon.
The good news, however, is Tanner McKee is still playing quarterback, and he'll still be throwing the ball to Elijah Higgins and Brycen Tremayne and John Humphreys. Stanford was never going to win this game by rushing for 200 yards as they've sometimes done in the past. The path to victory against the Bruins, and probably against the rest of the teams on the Stanford schedule, will be through the air, and I'm still optimistic enough to believe that McKee and his receivers will be up to that challenge, especially if the Bruins haven't solved the problems that plagued them against Fresno State's passing game.
My expectation is for a shootout of sorts, with Stanford prevailing 37-31.
For a look at things from the UCLA perspective, I've brought back special guest star Mike Regalado of Bruin Report Online and the What's Bruin Show podcast to answer some questions about the Bruins and give his insight on what to expect from the game. If you're interested, you can listen to my appearance on their podcast right here, beginning at about 15:45. (Spoiler alert: They hate all things Stanford except for me, which is nice.)
And if that's not enough, I've also got some more insight from Matt Perkins of the Illegal Motion college football podcast. Observant readers will remember that Matt also helped out for last week's Vanderbilt preview, so I'm excited to have him back.
Read on!
What’s the mood in Westwood right now? From the outside looking in, it feels like there’s a lot of cause for optimism. Agreed?
Mike Regalado:
It’s interesting because you ask what the mood is, and I default to thinking about all the negativity and then you come out with “optimism.” That is the UCLA fan base in a nutshell right now. Everyone was on a high after the LSU game and then people were clearly disappointed after the Fresno State game, but there were those that said it was a loss to a good team and others who think that the sky is falling and UCLA is the worst program in the country. From what I see, UCLA is a good program and is leaps and bounds better than the first two years of the Chip Kelly tenure. This team is really talented but it also has a tough schedule, Stanford being part of that. I think if UCLA wins a minimum of eight games, nobody will care or even bring up the fact that Fresno State beat UCLA. There is still a lot of football to be played and UCLA is going to do some good in that time.
The mood in Westwood is definitely less optimistic today than it was a week ago. The Fresno State loss took a lot of wind out of the sails of the Bruin faithful. I think there's still a fair bit of confidence in this team however, simply because we've seen that the offense can put up points and that in the second half of that game they really got going.
Tell me a little bit about DTR and his development over the last few years. (You’ll recall that Stanford fans didn’t see much of him last year.)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has always been a gifted athlete, but from his freshman season on, one of the biggest concerns was his decision-making and turnovers. Even last year, he reeled in the turnovers and has continued that this season. He has also made some good decisions in regards to game management when things don’t go the team’s way. The Bruins have shown that they have a potent run game, and we are also seeing that DTR can lead the offense through the air. What is pretty incredible to see is that he has quite a bit of explosive plays this season, and it will be interesting to see if that continues or if that gets shut down. Either way, he seems to find a way to get things done.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has gotten better each year he's been on campus, and his ascension has mirrored the growth of the team under Chip Kelly. Most people who were saying that Kelly was on the hot seat entering the season were simply looking at the record and not the trends - in terms of winning percentage, they had improved every year under the former Oregon coach, and a lot of that had to do with the growth of DTR, who has progressively changed from an athlete into a quarterback. He's shown that he's not afraid to take shots downfield, and has grown in terms of how he is able to go through his progressions. In his freshman and sophomore seasons, if his first read wasn't there, he would almost always tuck it and run. Now, he's going through his receivers, and using his scrambling ability only as a last option.
GMC:
The surprising strength of the Stanford defense has been the secondary. How do you expect DTR and his receivers to attack them?
Chip Kelly has played a lot of players this season and from what I see, tries not to tire out any one player which helps as he finally has a lot of depth this season. We’ve seen what Greg Dulcich and Kyle Phillips can do, but there is a roster full of receivers that are just waiting to break out. Last week we saw Kam Brown lead the team through the air but they’re are so many others that are yet to be seen. I think Chip Kelly will try to attack the middle of the field, especially with a ton of crossing routes, but I would also expect him to let the ball sail for a few deep ones as it has been working lately. Still, they have to be careful with this efficient Cardinal secondary.
I think that the Bruins will attack Stanford's secondary by leaning on Greg Dulcich and the tight ends first. Dulcich is the best receiving threat on the team with his combination of size and speed, and we saw what he's able to do against LSU. I was frankly shocked that he wasn't really involved in the gameplan against Fresno State, and that's one of the reasons why they lost (at least in my opinion). Kyle Phillips will be able to get open against anyone, so he'll have his share of targets. But because of the Cardinal's strength in the secondary (I'm so impressed with Jimmy Wyrick - he's been a revelation as a true freshman), I imagine that the Bruins will lean even more heavily on the run game than they have been.
GMC:
I don’t want to ask about the UCLA running game because it scares me to death, but I will anyway. Brittain Brown, who lives in Stanford nightmares, has been splitting carries with Zach Charbonnet. What does each back bring to the table, and, in general, how is the Chip Kelly run game coming along?
As I mentioned before, UCLA can have a really good run game. Fresno State seem to figure it out as they stopped Brown and Charbonnet, but UCLA found relief with DTR running the ball. Still, I expect UCLA to figure out how to make the run game efficient when teams stack the box. That will also help when UCLA goes to the air, but from what we’ve seen, when they are clicking, Brown and Charbonnet are gut punches to opposing defenses. They not only get into open space very quickly, but they can also bounce off defenders to get extra yardage, Charbonnet in particular. Fresno State found a way to slow down the UCLA run game, but I don’t expect it to last. Chip Kelly and offensive coordinator Justin Frye always have the gears turning.
The Chip Kelly running attack has finally blossomed after fits and starts over the past few seasons (Fresno State game excepted). Charbonnet has brought a combination of toughness and speed that they were lacking. He's got breakaway ability, and is a perfect compliment to Brown, who is a smoother runner but also is very effective between the tackles. And you can't forget about DTR's running ability either. Charbonnet, however, has been such a perfect fit for this scheme - he's a one cut runner who can accelerate and get downhill fast, and Michigan was completely misusing him. Bruin fans are very glad he decided to transfer back to his hometown, and he in many ways was the missing ingredient this team needed, especially after the graduation of Demetric Felton.
GMC:
I got to talk to Qwuantrezz Knight for a minute at Media Day, and he immediately became my favorite Bruin. Tell me something good about him.
Qwuantrezz Knight is such a wonderful kid - he's seen a ton of football, as UCLA is actually his third school (he was at Maryland and Kent State before coming to Westwood). He makes a great pairing with Quentin Lake at safety, and they're super complimentary players (full disclosure - Lake is my favorite defender on this team. He's so versatile and has the ability to step up in the box and defend the run, cover guys in the slot, and play center field). Knight's strength is definitely as a box safety playing the run - he's about as sure a tackler as they come at that position, and just has infectious energy on the field. I'm a big fan too.
GMC:
That leads to my next question. The new Tanner McKee offense has been riding the backs of a strong group of wide receivers. How do you expect the match up with the UCLA secondary to play out?
Honestly, the UCLA pass defense is the biggest question mark of the season. That has been the Achilles’ heel of the defense since Kelly got to Westwood, which is the flipped compared to the run defense which has gotten incrementally better since Kelly got to Westwood. Against Fresno State, from what my editor Tracy Pierson called the “Cushion of Death,” it was apparent that UCLA was giving a lot of space to the Bulldog receivers. If UCLA continues to do that, then it will suffer, but this week Kelly said that they were going to address it and hopefully play a little bit closer to the Stanford receivers. If not, if we see the same spacing that we did last weekend, Stanford is going to have a field day with the Bruins secondary.
This is probably the toughest question for me to answer because their scheme has varied quite a bit week to week. I think they'll bring Kenny Churchwell in a lot to pair with Knight and Lake for a 3 safety look and vary it up from there. Brycen Tremayne is the guy I'm keying in on if I'm the Bruins, and I imagine that Devin Kirkwood will be tasked with shadowing him. The strength of this Bruins team is the secondary (even though you might not know it after watching Jake Haener throw for an ungodly amount of yards last week), so I think that they'll be able to figure out a way to try and limit their exposure to the deep ball.
GMC:
Special teams play has been a strength for the Cardinal thus far. Has anything stood out to you about UCLA’s special teams?
It has been noticeable that this season, UCLA‘s special teams has been pretty good. There are times where they’ve been average with a sprinkle of bad plys, but I would say that UCLA’s special teams are doing well on the majority of their time on the field. Punting has been an advantage, field goal attempts have not been an issue, and returns have actually been pretty decent. We haven’t had a player return a ball for a touchdown yet, but there have been some big chunks of yardage being produced. Overall, I think they have one of the best special team units in the Pac-12.
UCLA's special teams have been solid, especially in the kicking game. Nicholas Barr-Mira hasn't missed a field goal attempt, and Luke Akers has done what's asked of him in the punting game, averaging almost 44 yards per punt. The return side of things hasn't broken a big one just yet, but Kazemir Allen definitely has the open field speed to do so if he gets a crease.
GMC:
If you had to choose a theme song for this year’s UCLA team, what would it be?
Being a music lover, this is definitely the hardest question you’ve given me. Does one go with energy and excitement or does one go with a sense of build up like a montage? You know what? I have to go with a song that is energetic but is figurative in terms of the narration. Also, because of Nike/Jumpman. “Jump” by Van Halen.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best bet for how we get there.
UCLA wins 35-31. I think UCLA’s run offense and run defense will dictate how this game goes. I honestly believe that UCLA will not make (all) the same mistakes that it did last week. And though Kelly says that the team isn’t thinking about last season, a few might think about revenge.
My prediction is that UCLA wins 31-27 on the back of 250+ yards of rushing from the three headed monster of Brown, Charbonnet, and DTR. If I'm a Cardinal fan, the fact that Vandy ran for 247 yards scares the crap out of me. Their offensive line is mediocre at best, and UCLA's is a strength, and the skill level at running back and quarterback is infinitely higher than the Commodores'. However, if Stanford is able to dominate time of possession like Fresno State did (they more than doubled up the Bruins last weekend in that key stat) by leaning on Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat and get a couple big plays out of the passing game, this game is there for the taking. But I think that the Bruins are mad about what happened against Fresno last week and are going to take it out on Stanford by trying to bludgeon them. Either way, it's going to be a fantastic game.
