When defensive coordinator Derek Mason left Stanford following the 2013 season to take over the head job at
Vanderbilt University, it seemed like a good decision. The team had reached its greatest heights in program history as James Franklin led them to consecutive nine-win seasons before leaping from his stepping stone to the Penn State head coaching position. Even though sustaining that level of success in the ultra-competitive SEC would surely be difficult, it seemed like Mason, with his experience recruiting players to another academically-minded program, would be a perfect fit.
It didn't work out that way. In his seven years at the helm, Mason took the Commodores to two bowl games, but never managed more than six wins in a season. He bottomed out in 2020, fired after losing the first eight games of the season (Vandy would finish 0-9), and ending his Vanderbilt career with an underwhelming 27-55 record, with only ten of those wins coming in conference. Mason is currently the defensive coordinator at Auburn, which somehow seems like a promotion, and Vanderbilt moved on.
The Clark Lea era began with a thud, a resounding 23-3 home loss to East Tennessee State, but the Commodores rebounded with a road win over Colorado State, 24-21. Lea has high aspirations for his program, but this certainly appears to be a long term restoration project, and the Cardinal might be arriving in Nashville at just the right time to grab the win.
I'm anxious to see if Tanner McKee makes improvement this week. He was certainly effective in the upset win over USC last weekend, but I'm wondering if he might be able use his growing confidence to push the Stanford offense to the next level. Watching him play live on Saturday, I caught myself making comparisons to a young Andrew Luck. I realize that's dangerously high praise, but McKee earned it.
The second point of emphasis for the Cardinal must be offensive line play, specifically run blocking. The Commodores gave up more than 200 yards rushing to Colorado State, and with the Stanford backs being generally bottled up in the opening two games (the stats are inflated by Nate Peat's 89-yard touchdown run), this would seem to be a perfect opportunity for the Tunnel Workers to lay some pipe.
Considering all of this, the stage is set for a comfortable Stanford win. My prediction is for a 34-14 Stanford win, but let's take a look at things from another perspective. Matt Perkins is the producer and co-host of the Bleav in Vanderbilt Football podcast with Ryan Seymour, as well as the producer and co-host of the Illegal Motion College Football Podcast, and the Bleav in Badger Football Podcast with Matt Bernstein. All three shows can be found wherever you find podcasts. So with that, here's Matt...
GMC:
How does the fanbase feel about this game? How are Stanford and the Pac-12 perceived out there in the SEC?
Perkins:
At this point the fanbase is kind of a mixed bag -- the opening week loss to Eastern Tennessee State was a low point for the program as a whole. But last week's victory at Colorado State where they were able to start moving the ball, especially in the quick passing game, gave hope to the fanbase. As far as the Pac-12 is concerned, it's definitely considered a second-rate conference. SEC fans tend to think (rightfully so) that they play the best and most competitive football in the country. They tend to think that the Big Ten is the second-best conference, and that everyone else is below that (outside of Clemson, where there is a healthy respect at this point because they've won multiple national titles in the past decade).
After Vanderbilt’s 0-9 season in 2020, what’s the current state of the program? What changes have you seen under Clark Lea?
The state of the program is that it's in full rebuild mode. Coming into the season, there were high hopes for Coach Lea, as he's an alum and had great success with Notre Dame's defense. But after that opening game, there was a ton of well-deserved scrutiny. There are reports trickling out of the program that he's a micromanager -- for example, he changed offensive play-callers a week before the opening game. It's too early to really determine what changes we've seen.
After two games, what do you know for sure about the offense?
What we know about the offense is that we've got a really nice set of receivers (Cam Johnson and Chris Pierce most importantly, but also Devin Boddie and Will Sheppard, as well as tight end Ben Bresnahan). Johnson has some of the best hands in the SEC, and Pierce is a big body who can go up and get the ball and is arguably the best blocker at the wide receiver position in the country. Sheppard is a young guy they're really high on as well. What we also know is that the offensive line is among the worst in the Power 5. The tackles are okay, but the interior three are poor at best. Center Michael Warden is a former walk-on who frankly doesn't have the strength or quickness to really compete, and both guards have been underwhelming.
What can we expect to see from quarterback Ken Seals? What are his strengths and weaknesses?
Ken Seals has a lot of reps under his belt for a true sophomore, and what he does best is process quickly. He's gotten better at getting through his progressions. But this season especially he's been overthrowing his receivers a lot, and that's going to lead to interceptions. Because of the offensive line deficiencies, however, he hasn't had a lot of time to use that processing strength because opposing pass rushers have been on him so quickly.
Which players should fans watch for on the Vanderbilt defense, and how do you expect that unit to attack the Cardinal?
The Commodores' defense begins with the interior of the defensive line. Defensive tackle Daevion Davis is far and away the best player on that side of the ball, and he commands double teams. If he's left on a single blocker, he's going to win that battle 9 times out of 10. Linebacker Ethan Barr has played really well this season behind him. The biggest issue for the defense has been holding the edge -- they're very susceptible to things like outside zone and stretch plays in the run game, as they've been gashed there, so I would imagine that the Cardinal will try and get Nathaniel Peat outside the tackles and use his speed that he displayed against USC as a big weapon against the defense. In the secondary, there have been some issues at the cornerback position, as Jaylen Mahoney has been picked on routinely so far this year, and they don't have a ton of depth at that position.
What has to happen for the Commodores to pull off the upset?
In order for the Commodores to pull off the upset against the Cardinal, they need to get back to the quick passing game that was so effective in the second and third quarters against Colorado State. Their line simply cannot hold up long enough to let deep routes develop, so they'll rely on a lot of underneath routes from Cam Johnson in order to loosen up the defense and then get running back Re'Mahn Davis involved. Defensively, they have to figure out a way to slow down the outside running game. If they can't, Stanford is going to march down the field at will against them.
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
My best guess is that this one ends with a Stanford victory, but closer than most people expect. I think that the Cardinal might be overlooking the Commodores, especially with the big showdown against UCLA next weekend, and coming off of that great victory over USC, there's a very distinct possibility that they're not going to be up for this game. I've got them winning 24-20, with a big game from Nathaniel Peat and Austin Jones. I imagine that those two guys will combine for 200+ yards on the ground in a slow, methodical attack. Vandy will get something going in the second quarter, but won't have the firepower to really press the Cardinal defense vertically.
