The last time we saw the Stanford Cardinal on a football field, they had just completed one of the most unlikely comebacks you've ever seen. The Cardinal's improbable 48-47 double overtime victory over UCLA did more than just cap an equally improbable 4-2 season, it potentially altered the direction of the program.
A loss that day would've dropped the Cardinal to 3-3 and raised dozens of questions about a team that was set to lose its quarterback and top wide receiver after a fractured season in which its best offensive player (Walker Little) and best defensive player (Paulson Adebo) had opted not to play. It could've been devastating.
I'm not sure if there was a direct causation, but things right now look a lot brighter than they might have. (Another cause for optimism -- early reports and verbal commitments indicate that the 2022 signing class will likely be Stanford's best since 2017.)
And so the Cardinal takes a four-game winning streak into Saturday morning's game against Kansas State in football's Taj Mahal, AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Wildcats are the first of Stanford's three Power 5 non-conference opponents, and while they likely slot firmly in the middle of the three (Vanderbilt is in disarray and Notre Dame is still Notre Dame), there are a few reasons why this isn't an ideal season opener.
This game was originally a home game for Kansas State, but when the opportunity arose to movedto a neutral site for the Allstate Kickoff Classic, it initially looked like a huge bonus for Stanford. The team would open the season with a bowl-game-like experience, and the program would gain some visibility in a region of the country where Stanford recruits well. But then the kickoff was set for 11:00am local, which translates to 9:00am Stanford time -- and David Shaw was furious. He correctly saw it as another example of television money taking precedence over player safety and competitive equity, and once again a Pac-12 team was suffering. (To his credit, Shaw also admitted that East Coast teams shouldn't be asked to play evening or night games on the West Coast.)
To further cloud matters, Stanford will emerge from the tunnel on Saturday morning without a named starting quarterback. Shaw has said that Jack West and Tanner McKee will split time throughout the game, and while I don't think that will be the determining factor, it's probably the most interesting factor. In the past we've seen backup quarterbacks enter the game in specific situations with a package of plays they're comfortable with (if there's one thing we can be certain of it's that we'll see sixth-year senior Isaiah Sanders in goal line situations), but the division of labor will likely be different this time. Will it resemble a spring game with West and McKee alternating positions? Will one quarterback get the first quarter and the other the second? If one is outplaying the other, might he end up staying in? It probably isn't a good thing to have so many questions, but as I say -- it will certainly be interesting.
Kansas State, meanwhile, finds itself in a much more desperate position than the Cardinal. Nine years removed from their last conference title and still smarting from a five-game losing streak that closed the 2020 season, the Wildcats need a win to get past all that and convince themselves and the fanbase that last year's struggles were an aberration, not a sign of things to come.
With urgency on both sides, this matchup will likely provide some compelling football, but the the Cardinal have a few strengths that will tilt the game in their direction. The most important development of the 2020 season was definitely the improvement -- and health -- of the offensive line. After being pressed into early service as freshmen, Walter Rouse, Barrett Miller, and Branson Bragg were much more consistent as sophomores, allowing the offense to look familiar again. That group, along with sophomore Myles Hinton, promises to be even stronger this season, and the running back tandem of Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat will take enough pressure off of the quarterback to allow the offense to be successful and keep the defense off the field.
That'll be enough to beat the Wildcats. The prediction here is for a 23-19 Stanford win.
The view from the other side is provided by Scott McFarland of the Kansas State podcast, Boscoe's Boys. Scott was nice enough to answer my questions about the Wildcats, and he and co-host Grant Copeland invited me to record a segment for them previewing the Cardinal. There's lots of great content from Scott and Grant, and you can hear my bit starting just a bit past the thirty-two minute mark. Anyway, here's Scott...
GMC:
After a promising 4-1 start, the Wildcats finished with five straight losses. What was going on? Is that cause for concern, or can we chalk that up to Covid and the craziness of 2020? What is the general state of the program?
McFarland:
Ultimately the five straight losses came down to losing Skylar Thompson and continued covid, injury, and attrition issues in the back seven on defense. With Skylar Thompson going down they had to turn to a true freshman quarterback who didn't have any spring practice or a real fall camp, and with that came a boom or bust offense on the backs of Deuce Vaughn and Briley Moore. Also a lot of turnovers came about as well. On the defensive side of the ball by the end of the year they were starting only one scholarship DB, and had to move one of the starting linebackers back to safety. Covid and injuries hit K-State just about as hard as anyone in the country last year.
GMC:
Skylar Thompson appears to have won the starting job at quarterback. What are his strengths and weaknesses as a quarterback?
McFarland:
Skylar Thompson is going to end up starting games in a 5th season as the undoubted starter this year. His strengths are protecting the ball, decision making, leadership, and he has a nose for the first down line and goal line in those situations. Ultimately his biggest weakness probably is putting the ball on a dime in deep routes. He has the arm strength to make most downfield throws, but it sometimes is an over throw or just off the mark.
GMC:
What are the biggest questions you have about the offense? What do you know for sure?
McFarland:
The biggest question on offense is whether or not the wide receivers will make a jump. I don't think it is hyperbole to say that they were the worst wide receiver unit in Power 5 football last year. If they can make a jump this could be a good offense. Don't let the numbers fool you, even with the issues they had last year after Skylar went down they were fourth in the conference in points per drive, and points per play. What I know for sure is that the offensive line will be very good, returning all five starters and that Skylar will protect the ball. Oh, and that Deuce Vaughn will cause issues in the running and passing game.
GMC:
The Wildcats are switching from their standard 4-2-5 defense to a more traditional 4-3 front. Is this something they did last season, or is this a completely new look? How do you expect that to play out on Saturday?
McFarland:
This is something that I think is going to be a game by game look. I don't even think it really is a 4-3 even though it says that on the depth chart. The sam linebackers in current depth chart are two converted safeties who now will be playing a linebacker/nickelback hybrid role in our "big" packages on defense. I am nervous about how the defense will play on Saturday, because linebackers and nickelbacks are the biggest question marks.
GMC:
Who are the impact players that Cardinal fans should watch for?
McFarland:
On offense it is Deuce Vaughn. He lead the team in rushing and receiving last year. On defense it's Julius Brents. He is a transfer corner from Iowa, and this kid will be a Day 1 or Day 2 NFL draft pick whenever he decides to go pro.
GMC:
What has to go well for Kansas State to win on Saturday?
McFarland:
Winning the turnover battle. Just based on the more slowed down tempo for both teams, I think if one team can take the ball away more than the other that will determine the game.
GMC:
What is your prediction? Give a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
McFarland:
I'm probably drinking the kool-aid a bit, but I think this K-State team has some real magic. I have the Cats 31, the Cardinal 24.
